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Irish 2000 Guineas 2019

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  • #1439837
    Avatar photoGingertipster
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    Some on the machine wanting to back Too Darn Hot @ “only” 7/1. Seems a very unlikely runner to me. Skardu a bookmaker’s 6/1 also unlikely. This could easily cut up badly. If as expected those two miss this then Magna Grecia (currently available @ 4/5) could easily go off 1/2 or shorter. Don’t usually like backing odds-on – especially ante-post – but worth taking 4/5.

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    #1439838
    Avatar photoGingertipster
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    Hmmm, 6/4 Too Darn Hot has been taken. :wacko:
    Does someone know something? :unsure:
    Surely Gosden can’t do me again? :scratch:

    Within minutes of me backing Magna Grecia he’s now out to Evens. :cry:

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    #1439839
    Avatar photoNathan Hughes
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    TDH possibly flying at home..?
    put Calyx on his ar$e I expect over a 7f canter :rose:
    Win this, St James, Sussex, QE11
    Horse of the year… :good:

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    #1439840
    Avatar photoNathan Hughes
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    Funny how its only Skybet offering odds with the bookmakers yet all the others are red across the board on the O’Brien horse

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    #1439841
    Avatar photoGingertipster
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    5/4 each of two!

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    #1439861
    Avatar photoGingertipster
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    TDH back out to 6/4 with skybet, 2/1 in the blue column on betfair with 5.8/1 waiting.
    MG back to Evens Skybet and 4/5 betfair.
    Could do with my nap horse TDH going here for my TRF 10 To Follow… But money is money and an ante-post bet is an ante-post bet. :mail:

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    #1439884
    Avatar photoKevMc
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    #1439893
    Avatar photoGingertipster
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    Skardu coming here AND (probably) Too Darn Hot.

    Oh sh………………………………………………………………………………sugar!

    Could not have got that more wrong. LOL

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    #1439916
    darren83
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    Having put up TOO DARN HOT 4/1 For this race in thread i hope he turns up but got a feeling Ascot be next

    #1439954
    Avatar photoBigG
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    I’m not convinced that Gosden will send Too Darn Hot here, it seems quite close
    to the Dante and Gosden isn’t generally one for throwing them back out quickly.
    I can’t say he had a hard race at York, Dettori eased him late on when he was
    beaten, but he did have to work to get near enough to Telecaster to challenge.
    I’d go along with Darren, I think his next port of call is more likely to be
    Ascot.

    If that’s the case, it leaves a pretty decent favourite in Magna Grecia trading
    around even money. However, if MG is a reasonable bet at evens, what does that
    make Phoenix Of Spain at 12/1. Certainly we haven’t had the advantage
    of seeing him on a racecourse this year, but if the form of his head defeat in
    the Futurity Stakes at Doncaster last October at the hands of MG is taken seriously,
    then I think the 12/1 on offer with Bet365 and Ladbrokes is more than a little
    generous. Charlie Hills seems pretty positive he will take his place here and
    suggests that he has taken his time to get race fit, but seems in fine fettle
    now. You maybe can’t take too much from that, they rarely sound negative about
    their horses prior to a big race, but he did add that on looks you’d expect him
    to be a better 3yr old. If he’s fit, and if as Hills suggests he should be better
    this year, then at the very least he has to be a very decent E/W shout at those
    odds, in a race that may still cut up quite a bit. To me he’s the value horse in
    the race.

    #1439959
    Mike007
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    I don’t think Too Darn Hot will come here. Id be surprised anyway.
    The news story is there to spice things up. Gosden said a decision will be made at the end of the week. Last time he did that a horse didn’t turn up.

    I’m on Skardu 6-1 each way in the likelihood TDH doesn’t run. Skardu runs according to trainer as long as there is no rain.

    #1439960
    Avatar photoNathan Hughes
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    Gosden said before or after the York race that they went there because they didn’t want TDH travelling over to Ireland
    I don’t think he’ll go but if he does it will deffo be a sign that he’s on fire at home

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    #1439961
    Frenchy15
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    Of course JG and connections can do what they want, but once again showing that he’s not the anti-post punters best friend!! Anyway, not to get on that conversation again! Surely surely, if TDH turns up on Saturday, he is a MUST bet based on everything they have previously said about this race. It MUST mean he’s flying at home and they are convinced he would win it?

    #1439963
    Avatar photojackh1092
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    Too Darn Hot clearly is a “classic” horse, so i wonder is that what is tempting Gosden to run him. He missed the 2000G and isn’t a Derby horse at this stage of his career, so to get that classic win, will they just bite the bullet?

    Also he’s probably wary about the family being injury prone, as if he’s fit and firing he might just run him.

    Obviously didn’t expect it myself.

    Frenchy, let’s not get into that convo again, but you bring it up :wacko:

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    Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!

    #1440021
    Avatar photoGingertipster
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    Difference between Calyx running or not running in the 2000 Guineas and Too Darn Hot running or not running in the Irish 2000 Guineas is twofold, the trip/stamina and the fact Calyx had beeb absent for a long time. ie They did not know if Calyx was a miler and probably trying to get Calyx to settle at home but – either because he’ll fail every time or because he was too fresh (as horses can be before/on reappearance) – Calyx failed his examination and proved not ready for the Newmarket task.

    In this case with Too Darn Hot it is established connections are adamant he’s a miler, adamant he likes to to run fairly often and (importantly) adamant he’s come out of the Dante in A1 condition. Of course he might yet disappoint in his final work and not run, but imo Too Darn Hot must be much more likely to run than Calyx.

    John Gosden is damned if he does and damnned if he doesn’t. What would be the reaction if TDH surprised everyone by turning up in Ireland unnanounced?

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    #1440123
    Avatar photoNathan Hughes
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    I’ve had a bet now on TDH here 6/4.
    He’s very blue on oddschecker and according to the racecards on racing post website they have Havlin down to be riding Calyx at Haydock in the Sandy Lane which suggest at this point anyway that the plan is to go to Ireland with TDH otherwise Dettori would be down to ride Calyx or am I reading too much into it
    Anyway worth the risk at 6/4 imo as like Jack says Gosden will want to win a classic with him like he did with Kingman and the 6/4 will be odds on once confirmed

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    #1440135
    Avatar photoGingertipster
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    I see Timeform “view” reckon Magna Grecia is a good bet @ 11/10, Nathan.

    https://www.timeform.com/horse-racing/features/previews/irish-2000-guineas-preview-magna-another-ballydoyle-machine-2152019

    Apparently Too Darn Hot hasn’t grown and therefore probably not going to be the/as dominent over three year olds as he was at two. ie Bigger sorts will catch up with him and/or almost catch up. Is he that small? Looked small agaist Telecaster, but most horses would look small against that one.

    Personally, I wasn’t that disappointed in TDH’s York performance. No other from the pack closed on the winner. Looked to me as if TDH closed too quickly and that effort (and/or fitness) cost him. Convinced Telecaster is a top notch performer anyway. That said, it wasn’t any improvement on TDH’s 2 year old form and Magna Grecia has improved. On form now, there’s not much between the pair and the Irish horse appears the more likely to improve further. However, I agree the fact they’re coming here suggests TDH is flying at home. Taking emotion/my love of Too Darn Hot out of it, I think (if both behave themselves before the off) Magna Grecia should start the fractional favourite. Neither should be odds-on – which is not what I wanted to say after taking 1.82 Magna! Got around half of my bet laid back at a loss, someone took 2.02 which am very grateful.

    Skardu hasn’t had much racing, could yet improve in to a true Group 1 horse and might end up a fair each way or place only bet. Maybe Shelir is best of the rest, but has quite a bit to find. Can’t see anything else playing. Phoenix Of Spain owes getting a significant pace/sectional advantage for his proximity to TDH at Donny and was much more experienced than MG in the Futurity. Also missed both English and French Guineas due to not being fit after a setback.

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