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Gosden and O’Brien don’t seem to have a handle on their horses the way sir Henry or dick hern used to. Obviously Aiden has to contend with the lads deciding where the horse goes next which must make training regimes tricky but I’m not aware of gosden having pressure from owners. Watched a documentary on Dr Vincent O’Brien and gosden was commenting on his eye for a horse.
I wonder how various horses would have worked out if they hadn’t been trained by gosden or ballydoyle.
I think Aiden is up there with his namesake and sir Henry as the best of all time but the likes of tapestry winning the Yorkshire oaks then dropping to a mile can’t be good for the horse.
Like Mullins and Elliot over the jumps I suspect too many of the top horses are in just two yards.
Very rarely did Willie Carson pick the wrong one of dick herns if my memory is correct though I do remember a few of sir Henrys second strings winning.
Aiden has so many well bred horses mind you you suspect his second and third string can win at any time and do frequently.
Just an observation not a criticism by the way.He was being trained for the derby then he is suddenly put in a group one over a mile.
He ran in the Dante to see if he’d stay, i don’t think he was specifically being trained for a Derby. He was trained for the 2000G.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!Just an observation not a criticism by the way.
Criticising and then saying it is not a criticism, doesn’t make it not a criticism Mickey.
Nothing wrong with criticism.Value Is EverythingNot trying to criticise merely observing how many second strings win for certain stables and how it’s become more prolific over the years. Mind you there is at least three of aidens that could win the Derby so what chance do you have getting the winner when ballydoyle don’t have a clue whose the best. It’s definitely changed since the 70/80s.
More horses are bred now than in the 1970’s/80’s. Therefore more good horses than in the 1970’s/80’s and unfortunately more of those horses are concentrated in one or two stables.
Considering how many good horses are in the AOB yard, it is a relief to me he runs so many in the Derby – if running just one horse it would be catastrophic for the race’s competitiveness/future, resulting in substandard renewals.
Impossible to test O’Brien’s Derby horses at home in order to see which one is best under race conditions anyway. Unless you want Coolmore to race them at home? Racing them at home doesn’t win money and prevents us seeing them. Even horses confined to one distance have different, individual characteristics. Some have more speed, some more stamina, some want soft ground, some a firmer surface, some have a good temperament, some a poor one, some like to lead/race prominently, some like to be amongst horses, some claustrophobic and need to have room.
People like Vincent, Dick and Henry are said to know what they had, but really what they had was fewer horses that could be top class…
Was Golden Fleece or Assert the better racehorse in 1983? Did the better horse run in the Epsom Derby?
Did Sir Henry know what he had in Old Vic? If so would he have taken on Nashwan?
Yes, Sir Henry often won Group 1’s with second strings (Belmez another, beating Old Vic at Ascot).
If Vincent O’Brien knew what he had, wouldn’t he have run Caerleon instead of Lomond and Salmon Leap in the Derby against Teenoso?Sadler’s Wells won the Derrinstown Derby Trial, but was brought back for the Irish Guineas which he won as a 10/1 second string to the unplaced Eddery ridden Capture Him. the third placed 6/4 favourite that day, Secreto then beat O’Brien odds-on El Gran Senor at Epsom. Vincent chose to run Sadler’s Wells in one of the best French Derby’s (Darshaan beat Sadlers Wells and Rainbow Quest). SW then beat Time Charter in the Eclipse. If nominating my three favourite races of all time, the 1984 2000 Guineas would be in there. Not because I backed the winner, but the quality of the whole field. Given El Gran Senor’s brilliance and – for that time in a three year old’s career – an exceptional performance… he could imo have been a great (Timeform 140+) if kept to a mile. Even though I applaud connections for running EGS, would Robert Sangster have won the 1983 Derby had they also run Sadler’s Wells? It would certainly have made it a better race.
In the 1979 Derby stable companion Milford started at a shorter price than Dick Hern’s Troy, although that may have been more to do with the Queen owning the former.
Had there been as many good horses around and had those good horses been concentrated more in one or two yards (like they are now)… Strongly suspect Vincent, Dick and Henry would have had third, fourth and fifth strings too.
Value Is Everythingso what chance do you have getting the winner when ballydoyle don’t have a clue whose the best?
Simple, Mickey.
Unless believing one horse will be sacrificed for the benefit of his other runners (pacemaker duties) we only need to judge each horse on its merits.Value Is EverythingWas struggling to decide whether to have a bet on too darn hot
Then I noticed I can fly is 11/8 in the race after and that seems a much much less competitive heat, she even gets 3lb from main rival one master
Seems much less risk attached to the 11/8 on her than on too darn hot, though I may decide to have a double
On “form” you may be right about I Can Fly,FF, but will form in the 4:10 be turned upside down by a very slowly run race? They seemed at pains to drop I Can Fly out the back in the Lockinge. There is not one horse in the 4:10 I’d describe as a front runner, or a prominent runner or tracks pace. imo every one of them usually races either mid-div, held up or even dropped out the back… Form may not count as much as those who settle and/or have the most speed and/or get positional advantage by changing their usual tactics.
Irish 2000 Guineas imo more likely to be a more truly run contest, more likely to produce a fair result.
Value Is EverythingYes that’s an excellent point and is always a worry for this horse
Gonna plump for a small double for a bit of interest due to the risks attached to both
Lots of very tricky looking group and listed races tomorrow (not a huge fan of the big field handicaps tend to avoid them) so a day for small stakes me thinks
Should be some good clues for royal ascot though
Here’s hoping that at the end of today we all realise that it was the last chance to back Too Darn Hot at odds against in a horse race!
Maybe not quite, but it is very possible that 6/4 will look at huge price tonight! Any takers for the SJP need to get on before as well if you think he will win today. 6/4 today and 13/8 for SJP. Are those huge prices? Or will the bubble pop! Lets find out, what a race to look forward to! 
I’ve already made my case earlier in the thread for Phoenix Of Spain, and I still
believe he’s a very good E/W shout in this at least. He’s not done a lot wrong, a very
decent winner of the Acomb and although perhaps flattered by his 1 3/4L defeat at the
hands of Too Darn Hot it was still a very decent effort. I’ve watched his run in the
Futurity several times, and he loses nothing in going down a head to Magna Grecia.
Obviously it’s not ideal that he had a setback, and then scoped dirty before the 2000
Guineas, and therefore he goes into this without a run under his belt, but if Charlie
Hills is to be believed, he’s fighting fit again. We don’t know if he’ll show improvement
as a 3 year old, but he wouldn’t have to come on a great deal to be competitive here.
There are doubts, but that’s factored into his price of 18/1 this morning, and I think
that’s very decent value for a horse who’s shown to be genuine and have no quirks. I
fancy you’ll get a good run for your money with him
Its a very decent price for EW I think that BigG! For me, Charlie Hills seems to be one of those trainers that is always positive about his horses however, don’t know if others feel the same way? Nothing against him but I take what he says with a pinch of salt usually! I am waiting for Battaash (who is much more relaxed and chilled this season apparently) to throw a mental one just before refusing to go into the stalls, back kicking the handler in the face, chucking off Jim Crowley and running off in the opposite direction!
Too Darn Hot a backable price now so added him to my Skardu each way 4 places pick.
Feels weird going against Magna after he did me a good turn last time but different day fairer track.
I’ve had a small play on Mohawk causing an upset. It would be a massive upset, and it’s highly unlikely. His run last time was decent but i wasn’t expecting him to rock up here next. Also backed w/o the front two.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!3.2 and bigger now available on TDH. I’ve backed him now too.
25/1 Mohawk
2.2/1 Too Darn Hot.Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!Sadly a case of damage limitation for me, having backed Magna @ 4/5 when I thought TDH would not turn up.
I agree that now Too Darn Hot seems to be the value of the two, have put a saver on him. But imo by far the best bet in the race is Skardu @ 11/10 the place! So my thread now has these outcomes:If Magna Grecia wins I break even. +0.4 points
If Magna Grecia wins and Skardu places I win +83.6.
If Too Darn Hot wins I lose -34.7
If Too Darn Hot wins and Skardu places I win +48.5
If Skardu places and the other two are out of it I lose -146.8
If neither Magna or TDH win and Skardu does not place it’s equivelent of a double loss -230If not having any of the above I’d leave the two hot pots and just back Skardu to place @ Evens or better.
Value Is Everything
Maybe not quite, but it is very possible that 6/4 will look at huge price tonight! Any takers for the SJP need to get on before as well if you think he will win today. 6/4 today and 13/8 for SJP. Are those huge prices? Or will the bubble pop! Lets find out, what a race to look forward to! 
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