May 22, 2019 at 18:25 #1440123
I’ve had a bet now on TDH here 6/4.
He’s very blue on oddschecker and according to the racecards on racing post website they have Havlin down to be riding Calyx at Haydock in the Sandy Lane which suggest at this point anyway that the plan is to go to Ireland with TDH otherwise Dettori would be down to ride Calyx or am I reading too much into it
Anyway worth the risk at 6/4 imo as like Jack says Gosden will want to win a classic with him like he did with Kingman and the 6/4 will be odds on once confirmedDon't Eat The Pie and Don't Buy The S*nMay 22, 2019 at 19:19 #1440135
I see Timeform “view” reckon Magna Grecia is a good bet @ 11/10, Nathan.
Apparently Too Darn Hot hasn’t grown and therefore probably not going to be the/as dominent over three year olds as he was at two. ie Bigger sorts will catch up with him and/or almost catch up. Is he that small? Looked small agaist Telecaster, but most horses would look small against that one.
Personally, I wasn’t that disappointed in TDH’s York performance. No other from the pack closed on the winner. Looked to me as if TDH closed too quickly and that effort (and/or fitness) cost him. Convinced Telecaster is a top notch performer anyway. That said, it wasn’t any improvement on TDH’s 2 year old form and Magna Grecia has improved. On form now, there’s not much between the pair and the Irish horse appears the more likely to improve further. However, I agree the fact they’re coming here suggests TDH is flying at home. Taking emotion/my love of Too Darn Hot out of it, I think (if both behave themselves before the off) Magna Grecia should start the fractional favourite. Neither should be odds-on – which is not what I wanted to say after taking 1.82 Magna! Got around half of my bet laid back at a loss, someone took 2.02 which am very grateful.
Skardu hasn’t had much racing, could yet improve in to a true Group 1 horse and might end up a fair each way or place only bet. Maybe Shelir is best of the rest, but has quite a bit to find. Can’t see anything else playing. Phoenix Of Spain owes getting a significant pace/sectional advantage for his proximity to TDH at Donny and was much more experienced than MG in the Futurity. Also missed both English and French Guineas due to not being fit after a setback.value is everythingMay 22, 2019 at 20:06 #1440139
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Definitely didn’t want to bring up the JG debate again! It was more a tongue in cheek comment! More about whether TDH was a max bet potential on Saturday but reading that you just sent GT he’s definitely not! If a horse doesn’t fill out much from 2 to 3 does that usually equate to non improvement though? How likely is that scenario? This is potentially no ordinary horse, same RPR rating as Frankel on final 2 yr old form. Magna Grecia could obviously keep improving but it was the joint worst winning RPR of the 2000 Guineas in 14 years so he’s going to have to.May 22, 2019 at 22:04 #1440150
If TDH turns up he’s odds on to be odds on imo
Magna Grecia should come on being an O’Brien horse but agree with Frenchy that the guineas wasn’t the best of renewals. I personally feel TDH has room for improvement, Frankie said he pulled/didn’t settle for the 1st four furlongs which makes his effort all the more impressive to get as close as he did giving away the big lead and like ginger says being the only closer to get within striking distance.
Interesting thoughts regard his size. His sisters didn’t run a lot as 2 y/o’s so maybe he is a earlier developer compared to them.Don't Eat The Pie and Don't Buy The S*nMay 22, 2019 at 22:51 #1440160
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This race will provide a much better guide to magna grecias ability than the 2000 guineas imo
The way the race was run he was basically in a 3 runner race on the stand side against king of change and shine so bright and he beat those two as youd expect him to
Personally just cannot take the form of that race at face value at all going forward
If too darn hot retains the ability he showed last year he wins this easily and if he is odds against I will definitely back him
If he goes odds on when final decs come out my play would be skardu e/w who did well to beat the 16 runners on his side of the track at newmarketMay 23, 2019 at 00:56 #1440189
If a horse doesn’t fill out much from 2 to 3 does that usually equate to non improvement though? How likely is that scenario? This is potentially no ordinary horse, same RPR rating as Frankel on final 2 yr old form. Magna Grecia could obviously keep improving but it was the joint worst winning RPR of the 2000 Guineas in 14 years so he’s going to have to.
If a horse is small and/or does not grow it could still improve from two to three, Frenchy. But is less likely to do so than a bigger/better conformationed racehorse.
If a horse is small and/or does not grow it could still improve a lot from two to three, but is far less likely to do so than a bigger/better conformationed racehorse.
Horses need to make physical progress from two to three to stand still in ratings. ie Horses need to make improvement of (if I remember rightly) around 7 lbs in order to be rated exactly the same at three as they were at two.
Timeform seem to reckon TDH has not grown. If that is true then there is/was a possibility he won’t make the 7 lbs physical progression needed to be rated the same as he achieved in the Dewhurst.
If able to achieve the same rating or improving a little on it, should be good enough to win Group 1 races at three. However, he’s unllikely to be head and shoulders above his contemporaries like he was at two. Maybe not at all ahead of some who improve a lot from two to three.
However, worth noting Too Darn Hot’s sire is Dubawi. His progeny do tend to break the mould, even his best progeny don’t tend to be that big.
When taking in to account TDH was the only one to make ground up on Telecaster, making up that ground quickly (possibly too quickly) and the fact he was a bit free early… There’s little doubt in my mind Too Darn Hot is at least just as good at three. But that does not mean something will not improve past him. Timeform rated TDH 127 at two; that’s unusually high for a two year old and that rating would in all probability be good enough to win many 3yo+ Group 1 events. But to be a real top notch 3yo+ racehorse he needs to improve to a 130 Roaring Lion class or better. Frankel was 133 at two, progressing throuh 140 to 147 as he got older. TDH certainly does not have either the exceptional physical presence or action of Frankel.value is everythingMay 23, 2019 at 06:59 #1440194
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Hmmm food for thought, thanks GT. certainly don’t think we have another Frankel there but it was such a good final RPR run. I think part of the problem is that we all want TDH to be brilliant at 3. This season is in big danger of becoming a massive disappointment at this stage quality wise, I think most of us are praying TDH is a superstar, meaning we just need to think really carefully and considerately so as not to allow those emotions in when deciding betting strategy!
Where are your thoughts on that now? Still waiting on it?
For me, either TDH is a disappointment or Magna Grecia improves well from the Guineas. I’m still not sure he will do that based on the Guineas not being a Great race this year but I was negative about him before that and he won so don’t want to fall into that trap again!
However on all things considered, It’s got to be TDH for me, just need to decide bet stakes I thinkMay 23, 2019 at 08:22 #1440195
I can’t find the quote as need to dash out but was thinking that I read an article pre Greenham with someone maybe Gosden or Frankie saying TDH had grown over the winter…???Don't Eat The Pie and Don't Buy The S*nMay 23, 2019 at 11:55 #1440214
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Reading into juvenile form id much rather magna grecias than TDH, if you take out AVD from the dewhurst (obviously a horse even as a 2yo that needed further than 7f) his form is not that great, certainly bot deserving of 126 lol, hasnt grown is a big concern, magna grecia however as a typical obrien horse has improved for the winter, the stronger of the two and the guineas win was impressive, the horse closely linked as a 2yo wins the french guineas,
Ill be surprised if TDH goes off odds on, magna grecia has the vastly superior form as of now, doesnt mean he will win but ittl reflect in the price i think
Magna grecia for me…May 23, 2019 at 12:24 #1440216
Horses of the standard you believe Too Darn Hot to be, ham; don’t put in times/sectionals Too Darn Hot has. Can understand people thinking Magna Grecia has improved past TDH – that’s possible. But to say “magna grecia has the vastly superior form”, seems to be stretching the meaning of “form”.value is everythingMay 23, 2019 at 12:45 #1440219
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I can’t find the quote as need to dash out but was thinking that I read an article pre Greenham with someone maybe Gosden or Frankie saying TDH had grown over the winter…???
“The Italian jockey then shared his excitement about the prospect of partnering Too Darn Hot once more, telling Sky before news of the injury broke: “He feels like he’s matured over the winter. He’s full of himself, and I’m looking forward to Saturday. He’s filled out, matured and grown a little bit – he’s developed nicely. I’m as excited as the general public about it. When you have the champion two-year-old making his first start at three, it’s very exciting.”May 23, 2019 at 12:54 #1440220
Where are your thoughts on that now? Still waiting on it?
Still waiting, Frenchy.
tbh I think the market as it stands – with Magna a fractional favourite over TDH – is correct. No value there. May even be a case that both horses are shorter than they should be. If forcing me in to a bet right now – and had I not already wrongly backed MG – it would be Skardu each way @ 8/1. imo Skardu has by far the best chance of the rest and is imo odds-on for at least third spot. Could be what we used to call an each way thieves race if 8 or more turn up. Will there be anyone on the day betting without the front two? Nature of this race is – at this moment in time – is punters seem to have strong opinions about MG and TDH. Some backing one and some backing the other – forcing Skardu’s price out further.value is everythingMay 23, 2019 at 12:54 #1440221
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if you take out AVD from the dewhurst (obviously a horse even as a 2yo that needed further than 7f) his form is not that great
Not going into each race deeply, but Quorto also beat AVD, but less impressively and is 121. So Ham, i’d imagine AVD wasn’t a bad juvenile?
Agree with GT here, vastly superior isn’t something i could agree with, at all.
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!May 23, 2019 at 12:58 #1440222
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On a line through Phoenix of Spain too darn hot was streets ahead of magna grecia juvenile form wise
Guess we will find out who is the better horse now on Saturday or at ascotMay 23, 2019 at 13:21 #1440224
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forget 2 yr old form now. There 3 yrs old now and Eddery and piggot used to say it what they do at 3 that counts. I won’t have a bet but I would be very confident that MG will win this very easy. I was at Newmarket and the horse looks a bull and he will only improve as the season goes on. As for JG you don’t know how to take this man. The quotes about TDH not being 100% for the Dante and needing the run,so what now 9 days later the horse is tip top 100%🥴🥴
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