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Evening all, long-time reader and new poster here. Thought I may as well start with the big one! My record in the race is mixed; generally when I have a long-term fancy (Cue Card, Might Bite) things don’t go so well, whereas when not committed in advance and making a call in the week of the Festival or even on the day itself, I’ve a much better record in the race (Bobs Worth, Coneygree, Sizing John). Maybe I’m just lucky in odd years!
My most recent winner Sizing John was a very clear trends pick and although Native River busted the returners hoodoo last year, even putting this aside I do feel that Mullins’ three and in particular Bellshill and Kemboy have nice profiles for the race this time around. Al Boum Photo I have a slight quality question mark over and worry about his seeing out the trip, a little like Monaleee who almost certainly won’t trap here. Presenting Percy would need his Festival form to make up for what I’ll briefly call an a-typical prep; I’m not willing to forgive it at the prices available. Clan Des Obeaux has had a lot of racing for a 7yo and despite his impressive form this season, will have something to prove at Cheltenham over 3m 2f; he’s also not for me at the price available now. I can’t knock those who were on pre-King George! Thistlecrack and Might Bite are both old favourites but I cannot see their respective returns from physical and mental (?) difficulties being sufficient to win this race at the ages of 11 and 10. I also can’t see Bristol De Mai getting his own way out front sufficiently to make this race the sort he wins. The reigning champ is rock-solid EW material but not an EW price any more. It’s surprising he ever was, really. My gut feeling is that he will come second to some younger and/or fresher legs.
Others at longer prices don’t appeal for one way or another as being the winner. That said I’ll often pick an obvious stayer who is also progressive as an EW chance for a place; certain readers will be pleased that this year I have identified Elegant Escape as this horse and re-invested some of the Welsh National winnings. He’s had a long season and lacks the G1 winning experience I would normally hope to see in a likely winner.
Will be re-reading the cases for and against Bellshill, Kemboy and Al Boum Photo in the coming days.
Good luck all.
My worry for elegant escape would be that he wont be able to go the gallop once the likes of native river start to pick up the pace 4 or 5 out
He stayed on very well last time but he lost the race between 5 out and 3 out where he just couldn’t keep up with frodon
I’d think he has a great chance of running past plenty of beaten horse into a place but will be tough for him to win
Very much looks a national horse in the making to me
I will likely back him to place on the day
up to today Joseph O Brien only a 7% strike rate of late. It happens.
Yes, it happens. But 7% compared to the usual around 15% is a believable figure without anything being wrong; especially as most of JOB’s are running well without winning. That’s not the case with Tizzards 4% compared to 14% with very few running well in defeat. Don’t get me wrong, it’s more likely than not to change by Friday, but there’s a fair chance it won’t… And that has to be allowed for in whether the price is a good one.
Value Is Everythinglol was reading the Paul Kealy Q&A on racing post. Potato has been at it again.
Potato: Paul every man and his dog knows that the great legend himself ELEGANT ESCAPE will win doing handstands in the gold cup but how many gold cups do you think he will win. I’m unsure whether it will be 3 or 4.
PK: I couldn’t have him a while ago, but with conditions turning in his favour he might run a big race. Not sure he’s classy enough to win one let alone four though!
My worry for elegant escape would be that he wont be able to go the gallop once the likes of native river start to pick up the pace 4 or 5 out
Native River is a cracking horse but the reality is he will probably never win another race. Last years gold cup was a gruelling battle from start to finish. This is his 3rd gold cup. Hopefully he will run with honour and set the race up and pass the baton on to his younger, fresher and better stable mate the legend ELEGANT ESCAPE. Connections really wanted to get a run into native river in the denman but didnt and I dont think fitness wise he is where they want him to be. I could see him going out like a light here and not even placing. Has a job to do before he drops away though.
The team hope Presenting Percy enjoys his boat ride across the Irish sea and storm Gareth tomorrow.
Clan Des Obeaux is surely going to get pulled. Why ruin a top class horse in a race he simply cannot win.
The team hope Presenting Percy enjoys his boat ride across the Irish sea and storm Gareth tomorrow.
ODFOD.
Anyway, have you ever been on the Ulysses in a gale? She is some mighty beast and with the stabilisers out, you might as well be on a millpond.
I\ve backed Native River and if clear of the virus will be difficult to beat on expected ground… And the yard’s form is obviously a worry too with Thistlecrack and Elegant Escape. I’ll be interested in both of those at bigger prices if the yard come back to form before Friday.
In contrast Mullins seems in cracking form going in to Cheltenham. Kemboy beat a load of top horses in style, but essentially did them for speed in a slowly run affair. 3m2f on very soft ground on a stiff course is a totally different scenario. Al Boum Photo is interesting, won easily last time out, proven on the ground and running (at the time) his best race in last year’s RSA when coming down 2 out. Still have a little concern about his jumping, but will probably end up backing him on the day. One I’ve gone in now for is Bellshill @ 13/1. Acts on anything, stays and jumps extremely well. Going to win the Irish National on very soft under a big weight until an uncharacteristic error at the last. Career best to beat Road To Respect and imo is a Spring horse – more to come. With ground going against Kemboy I think Ruby’s ride is between Bellshill and Al Boum Photo and I’d pick Bellshill.
Value Is EverythingThere is a very big market move happening in the gold cup.
THE CAT IS OUT OF THE BAG
THEY ARE ALL JUMPING ONBOARD
THE LEGEND HIMSELF
GREATEST CHASER OF ALL TIMEIMTO 14/1 PRICE COLLAPSING
TELL.THE TEAM
GET READY
Got a £5 free bet for the Gold Cup and I decided to take a punt on Yala Enki at 140/1 four places. If indeed this becomes a stamina sapping affair then this could look a big price! Venetia Williams showed with Aso today she is more than capable of getting her runners ready for the big days.
The team went to chelt on friday
To win the gold cup
The race was a test
but my boy was the bestSome people were getting lairy
I told then straight
YOU SHOULD ALWAYS TRUST IN DAIRYkauto star was the best by far
that I ever did seebut when percy stood next to the legend
he was made to look like a tree ABSOLUTELY SENSATIONAL SCENES PREDICTED
Potato – I genuinely wish your horse all the best of luck. The day of reckoning is almost here. I, like you, are loyal to my horse to the end – we’re just on different horses. I believe we will see a demolition job by Might Bite. But if I’m wrong and Might Bite has not recovered from his troubles then I would like nothing more that to see Elegant Escape romp home. Good luck.
Have added Thistle and E E as savers to my main bet NATIVE RIVER who has every chance of following up
This for me is between Bristol De Mai, Kemboy and Clan Des Obeaux. I’d love above all to see the grey win it and there’s no question in my mind that he’s the value, but the stars are aligned for Clan Des Obeaux, and I expect him to blow past everything after the last and win the Gold Cup.
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