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Native River is not even 100% fit in my personal opinion.
————————————————————————–Colin Tizzard hopes the rain keeps falling for Native River to give him a better chance of winning the Magners Cheltenham Gold Cup for the second year in a row.
The going has turned to good to soft, soft in places after several days of rain and an unsettled forecast until Gold Cup day on Friday week has heightened hopes of Native River repeating last year’s victory, which came on soft ground.
Tizzard said: “It [the rain] can’t be a negative, but it needs to keep raining I think. The more the better? Absolutely. We’ll take whatever ground comes, but the more it’s a stamina test the better it will be.”
His trainer, who also runs Elegant Escape and Thistlecrack in the Gold Cup, said: “He’s been fine in the last week and we’re just going through the motions now, doing our bog-standard stuff.
“We’ve another week to go, but he’s in lovely form, looks lovely and everything has gone to plan. We’re very happy with where we are with him.”I can understand the concern over the prep for Presenting Percy, but I just think that he will be well primed for this.
I am with Anibale Fly though each way, and the other one I’m going to add is Kemboy, as I’ve always liked that horse. I thought he would be more popular for this.
TWO BULLETS-
I Have backed Bellshill Ante Post.
Im really strong ON AL BOUM PHOTO @ 14/1 now. Potential Rain will help and hope he has strengthened up this year. He was on the upgrade last spring and at the prices he is a good. Would not be surprised if Ruby chose him over Bellshill.
The only negative i have for him is he tends to clatter a few fences. If his jumping holds up, he will defo be in the mix
AL BOUM PHOTO- NAP. Have stuck him in loads of EWand win multipiles. Good luck all
Has there been an official announcement to say that Road To Respect is not running in the gold cup?
If there hasn’t then the 90.0 freely available on betfair strongly suggests that the announcement is imminent.
I rated that horse as one of the biggest dangers to EE so it looks like this race just got even easier.
The last horse to have triumphed on his seasonal debut was in the 1920s , so, bearing that in mind , Presenting Percy has to be my lay of the meeting . Hopefully the eggs miss my face by a distance .
So , that leaves us with last year’s winner , Native River and the progressive chaser from Paul Nicholls’ yard , Clan Des Obeaux .
If the latter is given a patient ride and doesn’t hit the front too soon , then he’ll take all the beating .
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
I’ve backed horses he has ridden and will do so again but I won’t back him in the Gold Cup and I don’t back jockeys with terrible course records, whatever the mitigating circumstances might be behind them.
I believe it’s sound reasoning in the long term.
Gavin Sheehan is a good jockey but over fences is 0-16 at Ascot, 0-11 at Sandown, 0-16 at Leicester and also winless at Carlisle, Perth and Towcester.
Horses are not the only ones who prefer certain conditions
I wrote that earlier in the thread.
Sheehan well beaten on two quite well fancied horses over the Sandown fences today, also well stuffed on a 5/4 shot in a three horse chase at Leicester the other day.
Native River creeping towards favouritism now that is coming. With the soft ground I have no doubt he will beat Clan des Obeaux, Presenting Percy. I think I’m gonna add him here.
Already backed Bristol de Mai at 40/1 and Al Boum Photo at 20/1.
According to the BBC there will not be much rain there after Tuesday. The course tends to dry out rapidly
The weather conditions will be brutal all week. Will rain every single day upto and including the gold cup on Friday.
The gold cup will be run in extreme conditions and Native River will ensure this is a brutal test of stamina.
IF YOU CANT STAY
THEN THE TEAM SAY NO WAY
“IF YOU CANT STAY
THEN THE TEAM SAY NO WAY”When all you can post is a poor rhyming couplet,
You, my friend, are a total div.The met office weather forecast which is usually accurate has rain Tuesday morning and not much rain the rest of the week.
About 5mm is due to fall today and tomorrow then on Tuesday things get absolutely wild. I feel sorry for anybody who has bought tickets for the Tuesday as it will be absolutely awful on track.
A staggering 20mm of rain is due to fall on the track on Tuesday.
2.6mm due to fall on Wednesday.
2.4mm due to fall on Thursday.
1.5mm due to fall on Friday.
ITS THE TIZZARDS WHO HOLD ALL THE ACES
THATS WHY I ORDERED CHAMPAGNE BY THE CASES
They all know how it’s going to go down. Why do you think Clan Des Obeaux after having come into favourite on betfair is now drifting like a barge and out to 3rd fav?
He stood little chance anyway but under these conditions he is probably better off not making the final declarations and going to aintree where the flat track and better ground will suit him much more.
If he tries to live with the Tizzard pair under these brutal conditions in a race run at gold cu speed then he may never be the same horse again.
Do the right thing Paul skip Cheltenham.and go to aintree. Think of the bigger picture my friend。
I’ve backed Native River. Ran better than I thought he would in the King George, considering Kempton’s right handed and 3m/unable to get a good position on the front. One negative though is Tizzard’s form. No winner in 23 and just one in 33; a few ran as well as expect (without winning) but several ran poorly. If Tizzard comes back to form between now and Friday then Native River should start favourite with going on the soft side of good.
Clan Des Obeaux has a good chance on form, wouldn’t be too concerned about the course – when running at Cheltenham ran as well as could be expected at that time. However, his main asset at 3m has been speed; will he be as effective at 3m2f around a stiffer course – especially if going places emphasis on stamina? Worth opposing at current prices.
Presenting Percy has been the will he won’t he race horse this season. As if they were waiting to see if his blood is ok with previous non-starts. Wouldn’t surprise me if once again a late defector. On the other hand wouldn’t surprise if winning easily either. But judged on what PP’s done on course is too short in the market.
There are two or three outsiders worthy of an interest, but more of that nearer off time.
Value Is EverythingTrainer form leading up to the festival can be misleading as I expect the best horses are put away and going there.
Wouldn’t expect a strike rate to be quite what it is when the best are running. But we’re not talking about a trainer slightly below his usual strike rate of between 14 and 15% here, Mike; it’s way below that at 4 or 3% and as I said – with several running poorly (compared to the individual horse’s form).
Even if his best horses aren’t running; why should the trainer’s third and fourth teer horses be doing a lot worse than what those third and fourth teer horses usually do? You can’t blame that on not running his top horses.
Unless you’re suggesting trainers pumping their Cheltenham horses full of performance enhancing drugs?
There’s time for trainer form to change between now and Friday, but is disconcerting at this stage.
Value Is Everything
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