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I’m a little relieved that there has been a little rain this morning at Newbury, I
don’t think there is too much chance of AMERICAN having to pull out now
Pleasant Company is a non runner
With ground at Newbury Good (at least to my eyes) and two of the three horses with scope for big improvement possibly wanting softer ground (Total Recall and American) Singlefarmpayment looks a good bet @ around 7/1. Has progressive form; hopefully he’s not a Cheltenham specialist. Tom George has also come good recently; trainer wasn’t going so well at the time of Singlefarmpayment’s reappearance and probably needed it. In the circumstances doing well to get second…
…That said, the one that beat him on reappearance Cogry (please watch your bets between “Cogry” and “Coneygree”) that’s “Cogry” also looks over-priced. Made all there over 3m1f on goodish going and stays really well – neck second in Scottish National under today’s jockey. Might be taken on for the lead by a few here… Jumping has improved the last few starts possibly due to better ground. At around 20/1 worth taking a chance his jumping proves up to the test.
One I like at a massive price is Potters Legend. Good 2 1/2 lengths 4th off this mark in the Kim Muir – so likes big fields. Amateur jockey making up ground late. Brian Hughes could do better. Favourite, only 4th on reappearance and that just two weeks ago. But stable have picked up since then. Potters Legend is only a 7 year old, may have better in him and is blinkered for the first time. 40/1+
Had a couple of savers on the Nicholls pair. Present Man won on soft going at Wincanton, but had previously seemed better on good (at least at around 3m+. Possible might be able to show a bit more. Would’ve been a main bet; However, trouble is this is the other way around. Raced mostly right handed and disappointed going left before. That said, at 25/1 worth a saver as may be he’s learnt. Braquer Dor has been progressive at lesser trips on a sound surface and it gives him at least a chance of staying… And @ 59/1 I’ve had a little bit on, although might look to lay it off in running as they come around the home turn.
Good ground horses seem to be being backed, can understand the moves for Vyta Du Rock and Missed Approach. Both have good form on a sound surface and from in form trainers. Trouble is if it’s good ground there’s less of a premium on stamina. Doubt they’d have the speed for this. Whisper likes this surface too and the trends guys will be all over him – second season chasers do well in this – but his level of form seems to have levelled out. Does Whisper have the scope for further improvement? May well be good enough to place, but Looks pretty short to actually win.
If either of the current favourites Total Recall and American do act on the ground they’ll take some beating, so don’t rule them out. But their chances are significantly reduced with that question mark hanging over them.
No knowing how Coneygree will run. Doesn’t need the mud like some people think, or at least he didn’t before injury. Pulled up apparently after an overreach on reappearance after another lengthy absence. Can go well fresh, but stable are yet to have a winner this season.
Irish challenger A Genie In ABottle is another possible, but will have the bold jumping Coneygree to contend with if his usual tactics are employed and not convinced about his effectiveness on this ground at the trip – speed-wise.
Now with the going firming up Braqeur Dor is now a main bet, taken some more 49/1.
Main Bets:
Singlefarmpayment 7/1
Cogry 20/1
Potters Legend 41/1
Braquer Dor 59/1 and 49/1saver:
Present Man 25/1Value Is EverythingLooking for something to add to my antepost two but as usual, tempted to back half the field.
Would’ve added Pleasant Company but he is NR so instead went for Bigbadjohn at a big price. A nice big horse who has jumped decently round Newbury before, ground should suit and stable got to come back to form sometime. Also added the same EW double with him for this and Whisper for Gold Cup as I did with VdR.Final 3:
Whisper 16s
Vyta du Roc 25s
Bigbadjohn 100s
All EW.
Good luck in the big race, hoping for a good raceThere’s quite a lot of pace horses in today’s race and they could go too quick. But on the other hand it’s a race usually won by something at least fairly prominent and there seems to be a pace bias towards prominent runners today.
Value Is EverythingCaroles Destrier @ 25s EW
Cogry @ 20s EW
Pilgrims Bay @ 50s EW
Present Man @ 20s EWDon’t fancy Total Recall, American and Coneygree at all. None of them might be placed imo.
Good luck!With prominent runners doing so well today have had half a saver on American, despite the ground.
Value Is EverythingWD Total Recall backers, what a finish! That 4lb penalty probably beat Whisper right enough. Nice of Mullins to credit Sandra Hughes with bringing the horse along quietly.
Henderson rapidly becoming my jinx – what a blunder getting that 4lb penalty.
Well done winners.
What a thrilling race!!! Always miles better to watch than the KG.
Well done FAV backers!Have three in this
Royal vacation e/w 20/1
Cogry e/w 20/1
Total recall 8/1 (can see him coming back to that price again)Thattl do, heart in mouth stuff, excellent ride by townend
Henderson rapidly becoming my jinx – what a blunder getting that 4lb penalty.
Well done winners.
catch 22. without a prep he’not fit enough. Get a winning prep and get the penalty.
catch 22. without a prep he’not fit enough. Get a winning prep and get the penalty.
Not so. It was the bad timing. A win one day earlier and he escapes a penalty.
Killer race for me! My old fav looks finished, sad to see…and my saver Whisper done late by the one horse in the race I just couldn’t see winning it! That’s racing though, well done winners.
Well done to all those who kept the faith with Total Recall. Although – as I said earlier – seemed well-in, I didn’t think he’d act on the ground. Whisper surprised me in improving again, commiserations to those on the Henderson horse…
And well done all who took big prices for the place on the 3rd, 4th and (if counting) 5th.
Value Is Everythingcatch 22. without a prep he’not fit enough. Get a winning prep and get the penalty.
Not so. It was the bad timing. A win one day earlier and he escapes a penalty.
Does seem a daft rule.
Value Is Everything
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