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5/1 value for a trainer with an atrocious record in this race?
Not just this race but handicap chasers in England…he couldn’t win this with his gold cup horse two years ago who was in off 5lb lower than Total Recall….where’s he in the gold cup market if he’s such good value as a 5/1 favourite for this?
In the past five years, Willy Mullins has had one UK handicap chase winner out of 55 attempts.
Name that horse!
Rolly Baby!
The stat I read was 2 handicap chase winners from 113 runners since 2003…the other winner being Hedgehunter in the National…as I say that’s an atrocious record and I wouldn’t be backing anything Mullins had in this at any price….how well in was Djakadam off 142 when you look back now and he could only finish a poor 8th as a 5/1 favourite!
Are you going to dismiss a horse’s price/chance just because of what the trainer’s horses of yester-year have done, Zammer? His record in this particular race is not so bad.
Djakadam wasn’t fit on his reappearance, it was only his fourth chase start and had fallen on his latest run (Cheltenham) which was up to then his only chase start with a double figure field…
Total Recall has already had a run this season and looks well-in, it’s his eighth chase start and although fell and unseated on two of his first three seems a much better jumper now. Every one of those eight runs in double figure fields. Last time won the 16 runner Munster National handicap on his first start for Mullins and may well improve again.
Besides, didn’t Djakadam’s next two races go some way to proving 5/1 would’ve been a good price had he shown his form? Winning the Thyestes easily by 8 lengths off a higher Irish mark than Newbury and second in the Gold Cup.
Am aware of Mullins poor strike rate in British handicaps, no getting away from it, it is bad. However, he does only target big competitive handicaps (other than when fighting Nicholls for the Championship) and a lot of them are either lightly raced, or had a few pounds added because of who he is, aren’t dropped in the handicap because of who he is, or exposed sorts put in a handicap because he has a better option for the Grade 1. Lot of those starting favourite are only there because of Mullins overall record at Cheltenham, over-hyped and should not be favourite in the first place… But not all his horses are those things.
Probably helps that Total Recall has raced for another trainer, getting experience and coming from a lower handicap mark than is often the case with Mullins handicappers. Horses do not lose just because stable companions haven’t done so well. If it looks well-in it’s generally got a good chance and I’d rather judge a horse by its form rather than stable companions of yester-year… And there’s a reason why these records go back to 2003 and not 2002. Be My Royal paid 33/1 in this race. So you could say a pound stake on all Mullins Hennessey runners shows a good profit.
This year’s race seems lacking in unexposed types too.
However, like I say, trouble is good ground could scupper his chances and wouldn’t surprise me if he stayed at home if looking as if it’s going to be good ground.
Value Is EverythingWhy would you say Djakadam wasn’t fit when he ran in it? Is that the easy excuse for a poor run?
He won first time out the year before in a beginners chase and won first time out the following two years in a grade 1, so for me is not a horse you can say wasn’t fit!
Think people are getting carried away with Total Recall because of the horse that finished 2nd…he’s hardly the most reliable horse to trust though for me…
This will be a different test altogether…will be run at a furious pace and if I could do any bet involving Total Recall it would be that he doesn’t finish the race…
Sara Bradstock, for all the stick she gets absolutely nailed it for me when being interviewed On The Line the other night…carrying top weight is only an issue when there’s a potential gold cup horse down the bottom end…and she was right by saying there isn’t one!
I too thought Sarah Bradstock spoke a lot of sense on Monday night. Wouldn’t it be absolutely brilliant for the game if he won? It’d be a real feel-good story for the sport after the sadness brought upon it by the death of Impossible Dream, Alan Potts and London Prize in recent days.
Why would you say Djakadam wasn’t fit when he ran in it? Is that the easy excuse for a poor run?
He won first time out the year before in a beginners chase and won first time out the following two years in a grade 1, so for me is not a horse you can say wasn’t fit!
Not all horses are fit when they run.
Whenever a horse has a good record fresh it’s obviously encouraging as far as his reappearance goes, but not definite that he’ll be fit. There are other things to consider.I saw Djakadam in the paddock at Newbury and my Timeform form book confirms it.
Although beaten at the time, ran better than 8th suggests – made a bad mistake two out.
Value Is EverythingMaybe if Mullins had a good recent record with handicappers in Britain his price might be 5/2 making 5/1 possibly good value
My theory with Mullins record is that he’s not as good with chasers as he is with hurdlers and the ones that win in Ireland are winning very uncompetitive races at their leisure…
They come over here after looking impressive but are in much tougher races..
Djakadam was we’ll beat anyway when he made the mistake two out by the way…
One thing you know for sure on Saturday if Coneygree is anywhere near his best is that it will be a proper true run race and a real test, something for me that will come as a bit of a shock to the Mullins horse…
Going back to his Denman chase win the last time he ran at Newbury he did it in a cracking time beating another horse who liked Newbury Houblon Des Obeaux…that same horse that a few months earlier had nearly carried off the feat of winning this off top weight…and as he showed in that Denman he’s a different class to HDO…
Personally not sure it’s as black and white as this. His horses are often “poorly handicapped” due to being highly tried….His horses aren’t exactly trademark bad jumpers are they? We are talking about a horse here that hasn’t been in his yard too long, and won with his head in his chest, from a much lower standard yard.
I personally wouldn’t back Total Recall myself, but Mullins doesn’t exactly do that badly with his novice chasers etc. it is more his handicappers he isn’t as successful with.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!I just think Total Recall made the most of a pretty clear cut opportunity last time out. He was unexposed at the trip and won off what seemed a very workable mark of 129 on very soft ground, getting plenty of weight from probably not the most unexposed bunch of horses across the Irish Sea. He’s won 4 times under rules on conditions stated as soft (heavy in places), soft to heavy, soft to heavy and soft. He’s now having to race off a 18 pound higher mark on his first try in Britain, at this distance and on ground he’s very rarely encountered and when he has he’s underperformed.
If the change of stable really has brought this horse to fruition and he’s actually still improving and even better on a sounder surface then he will probably win but I just couldn’t touch him at 5/1.
Whether 5/1 on soft ground is value or not is becoming immaterial. Can see it being good and would need quite a bit better than 5/1 to back Total Recall on goodish ground.
Value Is EverythingHave three in this
Royal vacation e/w 20/1
Cogry e/w 20/1
Total recall 8/1 (can see him coming back to that price again)Only Childrens List pulled out, so 21 will go to post. I think Pilgrims Bay has a huge shout of getting a place without ever actually threatening to win.
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