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I think Pilgrims Bay has a huge shout of getting a place without ever actually threatening to win.
On Pilgrims Bay’s Racing Post victory – may be.
If Pilgrims Bay wants to be placed – may be.
But will Pilgrims Bay want to, Charles?
Very doubtful imo.Value Is EverythingGinge, we all know he’s going to be at the back for most of the race like always and will make late headway. I can’t see him winning but I think he’ll be in the first 7 for the simple reason that he’ll stay on past horses that had been ridden to win. The ground should help him in this endeavour looking back through his form.
If he completes, I think he’ll finish somewhere between 4th an 7th, and with some firms paying out on 6 places I think it was a fair statement to say Pilgrims Bay is not the worst each-way bet in the race.
Point is, Charles; Pilgrims Bay is what we used to refer to (until certain people objected to) as a “dog”. Only puts it all in 1 race in 10 and not even connections know when that’ll be. He’ll only “stay on past horses that had been ridden to win” if he wants to… And even if (that’s “IF”) eventually consenting will probably be too far back to reach a place let alone win. ie Will only place if relenting to stay connected to the pack and even then only if the pace is overly strong.
If still wanting to back Pilgrims Bay then may be a place only bet is wiser than each way.
Value Is EverythingIve got my 3 for the race charles, but if you can get 6 places at 40/1 hes a cracking e/w bet
After one race (over hurdles) on Friday. Early days, but the ground doesn’t look as soft as the official… And at Newbury the chase course is invariably firmer than hurdles.
Value Is EverythingAfter one race (over hurdles) on Friday. Early days, but the ground doesn’t look as soft as the official… And at Newbury the chase course is invariably firmer than hurdles.
Yep, novice chase 3.8 seconds slower than Racing Post Standard.
Be interested to hear what The Blues Brother thinks, but it appears to me Good-soft hurdles course and good chase.
Value Is EverythingI’m on Whisper @ 12’s quite heavily for this. I can see him running very well in this indeed. I know he’s only a small horse, but apart from Coneygree, he’s the only realistic Gold Cup horse in the field. I can’t back my beloved Coneygree after his last run, so Whisper it is.
I had a fortune on Coneygree when he won the gold cup as a novice. When it rained hard the day before, I carried on lumping on him. If you ever watch the race again, watch the very start. As he lines up to lead, the big Irish horse who dwarfs him tries to intimidate him… Coneygree goes to take a chunk out of the much bigger horse if you watch closely, then bustles past him as the tapes lift. I knew in that very moment he would win it. I fear him massively tomorrow if he’s back to form, even with top weight.
Connections missed the RSA with American last year due to connections believing he’s better on soft ground. So with it drying up wouldn’t be surprised if he comes out.
Value Is EverythingConnections missed the RSA last year due to connections believing he’s better on soft ground. So with it drying up wouldn’t be surprised if he comes out.
I see Coneygree and maybe American as the dangers to Whisper, my 12-1 on Whisper is ante post, so will not get a deduction, so I’ll personally love it if they pull Coneygree & American both out tomorrow.
Connections missed the RSA with American last year due to connections believing he’s better on soft ground. So with it drying up wouldn’t be surprised if he comes out.
Don’t say things like that!!
Connections missed the RSA with American last year due to connections believing he’s better on soft ground. So with it drying up wouldn’t be surprised if he comes out.
I’m getting really worried too Ginge. I’m desperate for him to run, I backed him
at 14s, but I think it will be touch and go. He’s a really talented horse, it’s such
a pity he has legs like glass. Safety first though, if it’s too firm for him they
should pull him out.From my blog.
I followed Singlefarmpayment all last season. He was an improver – just the type I like and would have given me a big payday at Cheltenham but for being worried out of it by a short head in the Ultima Handicap Chase. Aside from the disappointment, his defeat raised a slight concern that he might just be a wee bit soft and therefore vulnerable in tight finishes. I’ve had a small bet on him a month back and was tempted to again because I’m convinced he’ll go very well with such a low weight. But two things stop me from backing him twice: that niggly suspicion he could be bullied out of it, and a horse called Whisper. Also, despite nine attempts on the forecast going, good to soft, Singlefarmpayment has never won on it. Five places suggests he handles it fine but it just adds to my concerns.
If the BHA race committee sat down specifically to design a race for Whisper it would be this one. 26 furlongs almost certainly at a hot pace which will favour stayers and that’s what he is above all else – a stayer with a touch of class. I’m very tempted to have a decent bet on Whisper tomorrow, and by that I mean what would be a large bet for me. But his slightly dotty trainer has compromised the horse’s chance by delaying his prep until after November 5th. Winners beyond that date get a 4lb penalty and that takes Whisper’s weight up to 11st 8lbs. He’s not the biggest horse in the world although he’s strongly made.
Fair play to Henderson for owning up to his blunder, but he might have serious reason to rue it tomorrow, as might I. While I am confident Whisper will relish the trip, I was quite surprised to note that 17 of the 21 contenders here have never won at this distance or beyond. I’d say that’s pretty unusual in such a competitive staying handicap.
Of the others, Present Man would be more interesting to me if this were a right-handed course. 14 of his 16 runs have been clockwise and on his last run left handed he jumped right (won a 4 horse race). His only previous appearance at Newbury was in a NH flat race where he was stone last. But he’s improving and his young claimer Bryony Frost is a star, and one who’d make history as the first woman to ride the winner of this race.
I’ll be having two small savers: one on Royal Vacation who’ll enjoy the ground, the busy field, and the stamina test, and on Cogry who, like many of his trainer’s type, is really tough. Cogry’s in form having beaten Singlefarmpayment last time at Cheltenham.
But Whisper ought to win this. Let’s hope that 4lb penalty doesn’t weigh him down in the final strides.
Whisper is around 8/1, Royal Vacation 14/1 and Cogry 14/1
With ground at Newbury Good (at least to my eyes) and two of the three horses with scope for big improvement possibly wanting softer ground (Total Recall and American) Singlefarmpayment looks a good bet @ around 7/1. Has progressive form; hopefully he’s not a Cheltenham specialist. Tom George has also come good recently; trainer wasn’t going so well at the time of Singlefarmpayment’s reappearance and probably needed it. In the circumstances doing well to get second…
…That said, the one that beat him on reappearance Cogry (please watch your bets between “Cogry” and “Coneygree”) that’s “Cogry” also looks over-priced. Made all there over 3m1f on goodish going and stays really well – neck second in Scottish National under today’s jockey. Might be taken on for the lead by a few here… Jumping has improved the last few starts possibly due to better ground. At around 20/1 worth taking a chance his jumping proves up to the test.
One I like at a massive price is Potters Legend. Good 2 1/2 lengths 4th off this mark in the Kim Muir – so likes big fields. Amateur jockey making up ground late. Brian Hughes could do better. Favourite, only 4th on reappearance and that just two weeks ago. But stable have picked up since then. Potters Legend is only a 7 year old, may have better in him and is blinkered for the first time. 40/1+
Had a couple of savers on the Nicholls pair. Present Man won on soft going at Wincanton, but had previously seemed better on good (at least at around 3m+. Possible might be able to show a bit more. Would’ve been a main bet; However, trouble is this is the other way around. Raced mostly right handed and disappointed going left before. That said, at 25/1 worth a saver as may be he’s learnt. Braquer Dor has been progressive at lesser trips on a sound surface and it gives him at least a chance of staying… And @ 59/1 I’ve had a little bit on, although might look to lay it off in running as they come around the home turn.
Good ground horses seem to be being backed, can understand the moves for Vyta Du Rock and Missed Approach. Both have good form on a sound surface and from in form trainers. Trouble is if it’s good ground there’s less of a premium on stamina. Doubt they’d have the speed for this. Whisper likes this surface too and the trends guys will be all over him – second season chasers do well in this – but his level of form seems to have levelled out. Does Whisper have the scope for further improvement? May well be good enough to place, but Looks pretty short to actually win.
If either of the current favourites Total Recall and American do act on the ground they’ll take some beating, so don’t rule them out. But their chances are significantly reduced with that question mark hanging over them.
No knowing how Coneygree will run. Doesn’t need the mud like some people think, or at least he didn’t before injury. Pulled up apparently after an overreach on reappearance after another lengthy absence. Can go well fresh, but stable are yet to have a winner this season.
Irish challenger A Genie In ABottle is another possible, but will have the bold jumping Coneygree to contend with if his usual tactics are employed and not convinced about his effectiveness on this ground at the trip – speed-wise.
Value Is EverythingIrish challenger A Genie In ABottle is another possible, but will have the bold jumping Coneygree to contend with if his usual tactics are employed and not convinced about his effectiveness on this ground at the trip – speed-wise.
I would be against him tomorrow as well GT. I’ve followed him closely and suspect he may get run off his feet tomorrow. Getting in a rhythm is going to be very important for him and a mistake that knocks him out of that rhythm will see him struggle to hold his position. There will be a lot more pressure on his jumping than there has been on his last two runs. A fan of Noel Meade though so will gladly be proven wrong.
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