2015 Cheltenham Gold Cup

For me the three worst value bets are Lord Windermere, Djakadam and Holywell.

Lord Windermere has done nothing since last year, in fact the stable haven’t had a winner since last March. They were 3/3 last March but that was a very small sample, easily put down as a potential freak dividend in an otherwise 0% strike rate the other eleven months. I think he’s got more on his plate this year and how he is less than 20/1 is a mystery to me.

Djakadam was a major disappointment in The Hennessey, the conditions were probably against him over that trip but he won on similar going in the Thyestes, albeit giving weight to lesser horses. Better ground might help him but his price is desperate at about 10/1 with an awful lot of improvement required against these horses. I know Lydia Hislop fancies him but I can’t see him winning at six years of age in this company and he’s easily passed over at the odds.

Holywell has already been covered and I just can’t get enthused about the Kelso-Cheltenham route. The horse has climbed Ben Nevis as a preparation for Everest and I believe the thinner air at the higher peak will see him gasping for oxygen and crying for a Sherpa to help. Be that a guide, or a van, I am not yet certain.

Zamorston wrote:

Good luck ‘Max’…huge call from team Bradstock…hope with all my heart it pays off!

It is a bold move bypassing the RSA with Coneygree and if the predicted rain doesn’t arrive it will make things a bit tougher for them.

I can see where they think that this might be their best chance to go for The Gold Cup with the horse but I think that this year has several runners who people believe could be ready to make a name for themselves and my own feeling is that Coneygree has got an awful lot more on his plate than when beating Houblon Des Obeaux, who, let’s not forget, is a rank 50/1 outsider on Friday.

Stan James have Coneygree at 13/2 and I believe that is ridiculous value, when he is facing the last two Gold Cup winners, a two time King George winner a Lexus winner and three horses in Holywell, Many Clouds and Djakadam, who some people believe is the Gold Cup winner in waiting.

For me it’s an almost guaranteed prize eschewed in favour of a very tough target and it’s going to be a whole lot different ball game on Friday.

Alastair Down called it right, when he said after Newbury that Coneygree would run in the Gold Cup. He is one of the last of the ‘old school’ racing correspondents in the tradition of his breeder the late John Oaksey, the incurable romantics who see steeplechasing as a sport.

I’m quite certain, as are his connections, that if John was asked whether to run Britain’s (joint) second from top rated staying chaser in the Gold Cup, he would have been amazed that one had even asked. Silviniaco Conti is a worthy favourite, but you can’t be scared off by one horse: if Conti is just a ‘flat track bully’, you can make cases for another ten – so why not Coneygree? Or any of the others, of course.

Best of Luck

I wonder how many people would have believed you a couple of months ago if you had said you would see only 1pt between the prices of Silviniaco Conti and Djakadam on the eve of The Gold Cup?

There they sit though, with Silvi at 5/1 and Djak hoping to be “the lad” at 6/1.

Of course the bookies are running scared of the Mullins/Walsh/Ricci win machine but 6/1 seems crazy to me and he remains a horse of promise, rather than actual achievement for the moment and he’s readily passed over in favour of the more proven horse in the twice King George Champion.

Of course there is the worry that Silvi has failed in two previous Gold Cups. The time he fell I can readily forgive. It was too soon to tell if he was going to run out of petrol, which was the question for many coming into the race. Last year’s effort is harder to forgive, with both he and Bobs Worth looking ill at ease in the closing stages, where they wandered under pressure, leaving unconsidered horses to pull off a five and a half grand trifecta as the 1-2-3. I worry about the going for Silvi but at 5/1 and a rain dance overnight he could be very tempting.

Many Clouds won the Hennessey and then put himself in the picture for this on his next start when beating Smad Place. I’m not a big fan of that form myself and I see the horse as more of a National sort one day, hopefully this year after lacking the pace for this. I feel there are faster horses than him in this field and he seems no value at 8/1.

Coneygree is next in the betting and he also has form with Houblon Des Obeaux, who was runner up in the Hennessey to Many Clouds. His win over the Venetia Williams horse earned him a higher handicap rating than Denman earned as a Novice. I think a bit too much has been made of that comparison, because Denman was two years younger and never faced the older horses that could have allowed his handicap mark to be uprated. As things stand Coneygree is an exciting prospect but I am not going to set too much faith in his win from Houblon Des Obeaux and the one paced Unioniste, who heads to the Grand National. People reckon I am wrong but I just like the look of the form. Taquin Du Seuil (Described as not staying behind Coneygree) and Double Ross , who were 4th and 6th behind Coneygree in the Denman Chase, both ran today in the shorter Ryanair race and they made no impact whatsover, being beaten 38l and 50l behind resurgent Uxizandre. Coneygree had beaten the same horses by 15l and 26l and although it was a race over a shorter trip today and on better ground, it seems quite amazing that Uxizandre has had a 23l and 24l superior winning margin to that of Coneygree, which is uncannily similar. Connections said they felt the RSA was a potential lose/lose situation for Coneygree but I can’t get away form thinking it might have been the better option. Not for me at the odds.

Holywell needs no introduction to TRF. Several members are on at dizzying odds and I wish them all the best. The horse had a couple of less than satisfactory runs but then got off the mark in good enough style for the season, albeit at very short odds at Kelso. It’s been an unusual preparation but we know the horse likes the Festival and I was on him myself last season when he won despite a mistake I was sure was going to end his race. There’s no doubt he’s a great bet at the fancy odds but someone getting on board at current odds ,ay want to have seen something more than what’s in the form book so far. I am a little surprised Timeform make him their five star selection for the race ahead of Silvianaco Conti when you weigh up their respective efforts this season so far and balance that against both negative arguments. Jonjo was expected to be cherry ripe for the festival and although the stable is in much better sorts than the tail-end of last year, they have gone 0/11 at the meeting this week, with just one third and quite a few poor efforts, Taquin Du Seuil being one of them. He has scope to improve but I feel there are others who look more likely to win this.

Carlingford Lough won the Irish Hennessey and catapulted himself into the equine half of the AP McCoy dream Cheltenham farewell. He narrowly beat Foxrock that day and several people seemed to get excited about Ted Walsh supplementing the latter horse for The Gold Cup. Ted kept his feet on the ground and went Ryanair, and we probably saw why today, as Fox Rock trailed in beaten almost 60l in 12th place behind Uxizandre. Even before that efforts I had my doubts about Carlingford Lough, who had finished behind Road To Riches in The Lexus on deep ground. Maybe there will be a Fairytale for the King Of Jump Jockeys but my money won’t be paying for the Champagne.

Road To Riches seems to have completely failed to catch the interest of the casual punter. I was taken with his first win this season over established chasers an thought him worth a cheeky bet for the King George. Of course, he headed to The Lexus instead and I got drawn in on Bobs Worth due to the softer ground, after initially nominating Noel Meade’s horse as the early pick of the prices. Road To Riches is said to have benefited from a dietary change and whatever he’s been eating seems to have helped as he lifted the Lexus in conditions deemed less than ideal. There’s not been a penny for him these past few weeks and he’s pretty much overlooked at about 12/1. I am not super confident by any means but he remains one who could yet be underestimated.

Talking of Bobs Worth, he was bitterly disappointing in the Lexus Chase. Having won the race the previous season he seemed to have every reason to run well again but Nicky Henderson said just to put a line through the Lexus effort. The trouble with doing that is that we have to also ponder why he ran a strange race last year when he drifted with Silviniaco Conti as the outsiders surged on to fill the 1-2-3 spots. For me he has questions, particularly if the going is similarly quick and miles different from when Bobs Worth proved his worth in the race. Not quite a Sprinter Sacre question mark but he’s got a big enough question mark for me to dismiss him as the forgotten, forgotten horse.

Last year’s winner Lord Windermere is a lay for me and he’s already bigger odds than I laid him at. I just can’t have him defending his crown in this renewal with better looking prospects than last year’s race had. The stable is completely out of form and the horse has shown nothing to suggest he is likely to come good again. I think it will be a sad day for the quality of the division if he can win this and it will also probably set a precedent where we don’t see good horses running to form until the Festival rolls round because trainers will think it the only way to harvest a Gold Cup winner.

Sam Winner was ahead of Carlingford Lough in the Lexus in third place and yet he’s available at twice the odds. Not seen since then he’s far from making up the numbers and his win from The Druid’s Nephew got a nice boost when that horse won The Ultima in taking fashion this week. The 6th horse that day The Package, also lifted a Cheltenham pot when hosing up in The Kim Muir today by 12 lengths. That looks a whole lot more exciting than Sam Winner’s relatively modest win from retired horse Medermit in a 4 runner affair the time after. On the whole, I prefer him at 25/1, to Carlingford Lough at 11/1.

Boston Bob is a horse I never quite warmed to and he’s been disappointing from my point of view. There seems to be a growing list of excuses for his defeats and I am surprised Timeform find him having each-way appeal based on their view that he’s “Holding his form well”. He hasn’t won at the track, or over the trip and his 0/4 record at Cheltenham is good enough for me to disagree with Timeform on this occasion.

Smad Place represents Alan King, who got off the mark for the week with McCoy’s inspired performance from the front on the previously two time disappointment Uxizandre, who put one of the biggest improvements from one race to another in a while, and probably registered the highest Cheltenham scrabble scorer since Azertyuiop in the process. Smad Place has chased home Many Clouds twice this year, getting much closer the second time and fand would point to his narrow second in the RSA at last year’s Festival. He wasn’t beaten that far by Many Clouds but he is facing that horse on 8 lbs worse terms this time. His odds vary wildly from 16/1 to 28/1 and I feel the latter price is much more realistic as he meets Gold Cup stalwart The Giant Bolster on the same 8 lbs less favourable terms this time as well. I’ll be surprised if he places.

On His Own was second last year having dropped back in trip after a couple of aborted attempts in The Grand National. He clearly didn’t seem to last home at Aintree but he picked his form up at shorter and wasn’t a total outsider coming into last year’s race. He went on to be a dismal failure at Punchestown and has run some stinkers with his Lexus second to Road To Riches being the only real bright spot. I don’t feel I can trust the horse to run like that again and others make much more appeal. Like Lord Windermere, I cannot see him place this time.

The Giant Bolster seems to save his best for this race and he took the Bronze medal last year. He may be an each-way tickle for some fans at 40/1 but I have to be against him in the belief that age will catch up with him and he’ll complete the scenario where last years 1-2-3 all finish unplaced and flip-flop the Trifecta into a Cryfecta

I can’t see Don Cossack lining up here, it will break all my known stats if he does and goes on to win.

Houblon Des Obeaux is one some of have argued about the merits of. For me he’s a pretty dour looker who will be suited by a real test, such as when he ran second to Many Clouds in an attritional Hennessey where a lot of them didn’t manage to finish the race. On an utter bog he might be one for some people who love the stable’s record with mudlarks but I am wary of him in this company if it is goodish ground. I’ll pass on him at 50/1 and remain cautious of his form with the others who beat him and are trading at quite short prices.

Home Farm makes no appeal. It used to be the name of Joe Sugden’s place in Emmerdale but even fans of the show will be looking at Home Farm, shaking their heads, and saying “Sorry Son but your pasture best”

Rank outsider River Choice is surely only here to give the owners a day out. Unlikely to be the choice of many, the bookies would surely erect their own statue of him if he lifts this. Even Mills and Boon reinventing the race with a scenario where AP switches to this fellow late on and cajoles him up the hill at 4/1f after the mother of all gambles from 250/1 would be accused of taking the P*ss.

That’s it then. I’ve heard it said it’s not a vintage renewal but it’s a fascinating one with young contenders, old favourites, form horses, improvers and a whole lot of questions.

Silviniaco for me at 5/1 in a race where they probably won’t be taking any prisoners. Rain would enhance his cause bit I think he’s in better nick than this time last year and his form looks strong.

Djakadam is a horse in my Ten To Follow but he’s far too short for this now, there’s not a crumb of value there.

I can’t have Holywell but wish the big price boys all the best in the world.

I think Coneygree may burn out off the front in this company and Bobs Worth may be over, rather than up the hill.

Sam Winner at 25/1 4 places for the Each-Way in a tough looking race.

I hope my vibes are wrong and Road To Riches can fulfil his promise.

Good luck and hope they all come home safe.

Excellent write up Steve

My heart is saying Coneygree, my head is saying Holywell.

Well it’s the unoriginal Conti for me. Just also hoping for big runs from Djakadam, Sam Winner & Houblon Des Obeaux.

Bobby Bluebell wrote:

Excellent write up Steve

My heart is saying Coneygree, my head is saying Holywell.

Thanks, hopefully some of it proves accurate.

Holywell seems weak in the betting, with 14/1 available, Lord Windermere is out to 22/1.

The 5/1 on Silviniaco Conti is long gone and he, along with Coneygree and Many Clouds have been the ones for money.

I’ve had a wee forecast on Silviniaco Conti to beat Many Clouds on this ground.

Good luck to everyone.

Well done Coneygree and all his fans, he couldn’t have been more game from the front and I couldn’t have been more wrong. The rains came for him and he took the race by the scruff of the neck.

Ultimately it wasn’t about form, with Houblon Des Obeaux unsighted along with plenty of other (form horses) out with the washing too.

I was correct about many horses in the race but well wrong with this Coneygree, so good luck to all his backers. You boys and girls deserve to celebrate tonight.

Well pleased with Road To Riches in third, he ran a cracker and was overlooked by most.

I have just witnessed a piece of horse racing history, I think.
Coneygree ran a tremendous race. Awesome.