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I know it was not a handicap, but look at the marks the first three had before this race Stilvi.
Holywell went in to the race rated 163 from what he achieved last year.
Fentara had a mark of 133, Diocles 137.
A strict 1 lb per length view of the form works out like this:
Holywell gave Fentara 17 lbs and a won by 25 lengths. 17 + 25 = a 42 pounds beating. 133 + 42 = 175. So using Fentara as a guide Holywell could now be rated 175 from 163.
Holywell gave Diocles 6 lbs and had him a total of 29 lengths behind. 6 + 29 = a 35 pounds beating. 137 + 35 = 172. So using Diocles as a guide Holywell could now be rated 172 from 163.The upshot of this race was Holywell staying on 163, Fentara staying on 133, Diocles was dropped 3 lbs to 134 and Rose Of The Moon went down 2lbs to 128.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I know it was not a handicap, but look at the marks the first three had before this race Stilvi.
Holywell went in to the race rated 163 from what he achieved last year.
Fentara had a mark of 133, Diocles 137.
A strict 1 lb per length view of the form works out like this:
Holywell gave Fentara 17 lbs and a won by 25 lengths. 17 + 25 = a 42 pounds beating. 133 + 42 = 175. So using Fentara as a guide Holywell could now be rated 175 from 163.
Holywell gave Diocles 6 lbs and had him a total of 29 lengths behind. 6 + 29 = a 35 pounds beating. 137 + 35 = 172. So using Diocles as a guide Holywell could now be rated 172 from 163.The upshot of this race was Holywell staying on 163, Fentara staying on 133, Diocles was dropped 3 lbs to 134 and Rose Of The Moon went down 2lbs to 128.
Hang on a minute.
That makes it look as though my own opinion is something completely different.
Isn’t the handicapper’s reaction something similar to what I said in the part of my post you do not quote Steve?
The above quote is what someone could rate the performance if looking at it in the most positive light. My opinion of the race was:
[b:fkdlmlf6]However, I do share some of your doubts about whether either Fentara or Diocles ran to form Stilvi. Have not taken the form literally, hence why I said [i:fkdlmlf6]”back to[/b:fkdlmlf6] at least the form of last season, with better to come given Cheltenham and March”[/i:fkdlmlf6]. I did not say it was definitely better. At least showed his well being.
But even if not giving Holywell full credit for the 25 length win, there are other reasons to think more improvement may be forthcoming.
We know Holywell goes so well at Cheltenham at that time of year (dual Festival winner). He’s also well known (when at his best) for finding a good deal under pressure… did not need to come under pressure today.
Share your concern over Holywell’s jumping Stilvi, which is why I’d love to see AP on board instead of McLernon. Aknowledge the latter has done well on the horse before; but AP is more consistent and imo more likely to get the horse jumping. As well as more tactically aware. Not 22 times champ for nothing. More inclined to react correctly to different scenarios within a race. Sneaky feeling might jump better with a clear view of the front.
I said the Kelso performance was [b:fkdlmlf6]“at least”[/b:fkdlmlf6] as good as Holywell showed last year and [b:fkdlmlf6]“doubt”[/b:fkdlmlf6]ed the other two had run to form.
Handicapper’s verdict: Holywell remains on the same mark with Fentara and Diocles dropped slightly.
Pretty much what I expected.
Showed his [b:fkdlmlf6]“well being”[/b:fkdlmlf6] at Kelso. It’s Holywell’s potential to improve at Cheltenham / in Spring that’s the factor in his chance (imo).
Value Is EverythingI know it was not a handicap, but look at the marks the first three had before this race Stilvi.
Holywell went in to the race rated 163 from what he achieved last year.
Fentara had a mark of 133, Diocles 137.
A strict 1 lb per length view of the form works out like this:
Holywell gave Fentara 17 lbs and a won by 25 lengths. 17 + 25 = a 42 pounds beating. 133 + 42 = 175. So using Fentara as a guide Holywell could now be rated 175 from 163.
Holywell gave Diocles 6 lbs and had him a total of 29 lengths behind. 6 + 29 = a 35 pounds beating. 137 + 35 = 172. So using Diocles as a guide Holywell could now be rated 172 from 163.The upshot of this race was Holywell staying on 163, Fentara staying on 133, Diocles was dropped 3 lbs to 134 and Rose Of The Moon went down 2lbs to 128.
Hang on a minute.
That makes it look as though my own opinion is something completely different.Isn’t the handicapper’s reaction something similar to what I said in the part of my post you do not quote Steve?
The above quote is what someone could rate the performance if looking at it in the most positive light. My opinion of the race was:
[b:6zzr00zg]However, I do share some of your doubts about whether either Fentara or Diocles ran to form Stilvi. Have not taken the form literally, hence why I said [i:6zzr00zg]”back to[/b:6zzr00zg] at least the form of last season, with better to come given Cheltenham and March”[/i:6zzr00zg]. I did not say it was definitely better. At least showed his well being.
But even if not giving Holywell full credit for the 25 length win, there are other reasons to think more improvement may be forthcoming.
We know Holywell goes so well at Cheltenham at that time of year (dual Festival winner). He’s also well known (when at his best) for finding a good deal under pressure… did not need to come under pressure today.
Share your concern over Holywell’s jumping Stilvi, which is why I’d love to see AP on board instead of McLernon. Aknowledge the latter has done well on the horse before; but AP is more consistent and imo more likely to get the horse jumping. As well as more tactically aware. Not 22 times champ for nothing. More inclined to react correctly to different scenarios within a race. Sneaky feeling might jump better with a clear view of the front.
I said the Kelso performance was [b:6zzr00zg]“at least”[/b:6zzr00zg] as good as Holywell showed last year and [b:6zzr00zg]“doubt”[/b:6zzr00zg]ed the other two had run to form.
Handicapper’s verdict: Holywell remains on the same mark with Fentara and Diocles dropped slightly.
Pretty much what I expected.
Showed his [b:6zzr00zg]“well being”[/b:6zzr00zg] at Kelso. It’s Holywell’s potential to improve at Cheltenham / in Spring that’s the factor in his chance (imo).
I was just posting the actual ratings given, as contrast to the Fantasy Island numbers. I fully accept that they were given with a government health warning but you knew yourself there wasn’t a cat in hell’s chance the handicapper was going to put Holywell up to 175.
In the similar, fun, vein, now that Blue Heron is raised to 155, how far could we push Faugheen up the Fantasy ladder?
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
We get an opportunity to assess the form of Djakadam’s Thyestes win tomorrow, with runner up My Murphy running in the Bobbyjo at Fairyhouse.
My initial reaction was that the Thyestes formlooked quite strong, with The Job Is Right, My Murphy and Goonyella the right type of horses following home the winner.
Roi Du Mee is the 7/4 favourite for tomorrow’s race, after an eight length defeat of Marito at Tramore at Christmas. Marito hasn’t exactly franked the form since and Roi Du Mee himself was in poor form prior to this win. I’d be happy to take him on tomorrow at the current odds.
Spring Heeled is joint second fav at 11/4. He has bigger targets later in the spring and would prefer better ground. I’d be surprised if he’s sharp enough first time out to win this.
My Murphy is the other joint second fav, and the form of the Thyestes has a solid look. He ran a fine race on his seasonal debut in the Troytown to be beaten just seven lengths, but followed that up with a rare disappointing effort when only ninth in the Paddy Power Chase at Christmas. His Thyestes run represented a return to form and 3m 1f on soft ground will suit.
Foildubh has been in poor form of late and would be a surprising winner, while Kennoway is surely only here to pick up some prize money.
This is a Grade 2 chase in name only and although My Murphy is only the fourth highest rated of these, he is the most likely to run to his mark, and tomorrow’s conditions should suit him more than any of the opposition. In receipt of seven pounds from Roi Du Mee I’m sure Djakadam supporters will be hoping he can win tomorrow.
We get an opportunity to assess the form of Djakadam’s Thyestes win tomorrow, with runner up My Murphy running in the Bobbyjo at Fairyhouse.
My initial reaction was that the Thyestes formlooked quite strong, with The Job Is Right, My Murphy and Goonyella the right type of horses following home the winner.
Roi Du Mee is the 7/4 favourite for tomorrow’s race, after an eight length defeat of Marito at Tramore at Christmas. Marito hasn’t exactly franked the form since and Roi Du Mee himself was in poor form prior to this win. I’d be happy to take him on tomorrow at the current odds.
Spring Heeled is joint second fav at 11/4. He has bigger targets later in the spring and would prefer better ground. I’d be surprised if he’s sharp enough first time out to win this.
My Murphy is the other joint second fav, and the form of the Thyestes has a solid look. He ran a fine race on his seasonal debut in the Troytown to be beaten just seven lengths, but followed that up with a rare disappointing effort when only ninth in the Paddy Power Chase at Christmas. His Thyestes run represented a return to form and 3m 1f on soft ground will suit.
Foildubh has been in poor form of late and would be a surprising winner, while Kennoway is surely only here to pick up some prize money.
This is a Grade 2 chase in name only and although My Murphy is only the fourth highest rated of these, he is the most likely to run to his mark, and tomorrow’s conditions should suit him more than any of the opposition. In receipt of seven pounds from Roi Du Mee I’m sure Djakadam supporters will be hoping he can win tomorrow.
If it wasn’t for the really soft ground I would be strongly interested in Springheeled for the Bobbyjo. Roi De Mee looks one to take on at the odds for me.
Roi De Mee had steadily drifted down the handicap from his 168 peak, all the way down to 148, before winning at Tramore to earn a four pounds rise. I believe the younger horse Spring Heeled has the scope to improve past him and am hoping he can develop into a National candidate this year.
The Thyestes or Thy Testes, was a war of attrition with only six of the seventeen runners completing. Perhaps that will play to My Murphy’s strengths with similar conditions upcoming but I feel he might just lack the class even with other factors in place.
Probably a race where I would lay Roi De Mee at 6/4 if I was looking to make some money out of it.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
We get an opportunity to assess the form of Djakadam’s Thyestes win tomorrow, with runner up My Murphy running in the Bobbyjo at Fairyhouse.
My initial reaction was that the Thyestes formlooked quite strong, with The Job Is Right, My Murphy and Goonyella the right type of horses following home the winner.
Roi Du Mee is the 7/4 favourite for tomorrow’s race, after an eight length defeat of Marito at Tramore at Christmas. Marito hasn’t exactly franked the form since and Roi Du Mee himself was in poor form prior to this win. I’d be happy to take him on tomorrow at the current odds.
Spring Heeled is joint second fav at 11/4. He has bigger targets later in the spring and would prefer better ground. I’d be surprised if he’s sharp enough first time out to win this.
My Murphy is the other joint second fav, and the form of the Thyestes has a solid look. He ran a fine race on his seasonal debut in the Troytown to be beaten just seven lengths, but followed that up with a rare disappointing effort when only ninth in the Paddy Power Chase at Christmas. His Thyestes run represented a return to form and 3m 1f on soft ground will suit.
Foildubh has been in poor form of late and would be a surprising winner, while Kennoway is surely only here to pick up some prize money.
This is a Grade 2 chase in name only and although My Murphy is only the fourth highest rated of these, he is the most likely to run to his mark, and tomorrow’s conditions should suit him more than any of the opposition. In receipt of seven pounds from Roi Du Mee I’m sure Djakadam supporters will be hoping he can win tomorrow.
If it wasn’t for the really soft ground I would be strongly interested in Springheeled for the Bobbyjo. Roi De Mee looks one to take on at the odds for me.
Roi De Mee had steadily drifted down the handicap from his 168 peak, all the way down to 148, before winning at Tramore to earn a four pounds rise. I believe the younger horse Spring Heeled has the scope to improve past him and am hoping he can develop into a National candidate this year.
The Thyestes or Thy Testes, was a war of attrition with only six of the seventeen runners completing. Perhaps that will play to My Murphy’s strengths with similar conditions upcoming but I feel he might just lack the class even with other factors in place.
Probably a race where I would lay Roi De Mee at 6/4 if I was looking to make some money out of it.
I totally agree that Spring Heeled could be a National horse but I don’t think it’s the modus operandi of Jim Culloty to have him fully tuned for tomorrow. It’s possible he won’t need to be at his best to win but on the likely ground I couldn’t back him. The cheekpieces seemed to have a positive effect on My Murphy and a reproduction of his Thyestes run might be enough to take this. A poor turn out for the race it must be said, with almost €28k to the winner.
Well I had the market right, with My Murphy backed from 11/4 in to 6/4 and Spring Heeled drifting to 7/2. My Murphy was disappointing in third given the market support and Roi Du Mee’s biggest challenger was a back to form Foildubh. The eyecatcher of the race was Spring Heeled who traveled very well on ground he wouldn’t have liked. If I was a Djakadam I’d like to have seen a bit more from his immediate Gowran victim.
Well I had the market right, with My Murphy backed from 11/4 in to 6/4 and Spring Heeled drifting to 7/2. My Murphy was disappointing in third given the market support and Roi Du Mee’s biggest challenger was a back to form Foildubh. The eyecatcher of the race was Spring Heeled who traveled very well on ground he wouldn’t have liked. If I was a Djakadam I’d like to have seen a bit more from his immediate Gowran victim.
They couldn’t give Spring Heeled away Tommy. It seemed nothing much was expected and nothing was what was delivered.
Ironic that Roi Du Mee drifted out to 2nd fav before narrowly holding on. I was surprised to see My Murphy so short, even with the ground in his favour. The Thyestes hasn’t worked out well and I think Djakadam has an awful lot on his plate in The Gold Cup.
Just one win and ten unplaced from eleven subsequent Thyestes runs leaves the form looking pretty modest and I think it’s crazy that Djakadam is the same odds as the last two Gold Cup winners.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I totally agree that Spring Heeled could be a National horse but I don’t think it’s the modus operandi of Jim Culloty to have him fully tuned for tomorrow.
It is not in Jim Cullotty’s modus operandi to win anything. In over 80 runs has only won 3 races since 29th August 2013. Those 3 races coming one after the other, Spring Heeled, Lord Windermere and Prince Of Lombardy on March 13th, 14th and 20th last year.
Is Cullotty running horses not fully tuned out of choice THM? Or is it because he can not get them fully tuned? Has he had a bad virus?
Value Is EverythingI totally agree that Spring Heeled could be a National horse but I don’t think it’s the modus operandi of Jim Culloty to have him fully tuned for tomorrow.
It is not in Jim Cullotty’s modus operandi to win anything.
Class
I totally agree that Spring Heeled could be a National horse but I don’t think it’s the modus operandi of Jim Culloty to have him fully tuned for tomorrow.
It is not in Jim Cullotty’s modus operandi to win anything. In over 80 runs has only won 3 races since 29th August 2013. Those 3 races coming one after the other, Spring Heeled, Lord Windermere and Prince Of Lombardy on March 13th, 14th and 20th last year.
Is Cullotty running horses not fully tuned out of choice THM? Or is it because he can not get them fully tuned? Has he had a bad virus?
The word was he had a virus last season before the Cheltenham successes of Lord Windermere and Spring Heeled. Whatever way you look at it he had those too horses in fine form last March.
I have no idea if the horses have been sick this season, but I’d guess they’ve been fine given the regular positive updates about Lord Windermere.
He only has a few decent sorts (Lord W, Spring H, and maybe Vaxalco and Legal Exit), and is a trainer who has a lot of dead wood in the yard, handicappers in other words. He obviously hasn’t been placing these to win very well.
I’m surprised Dr Lambe has so many horses with him, because he wouldn’t be near the top of my list of trainers I’d send a racehorse to if I had one. He has shown at Cheltenham over the past two seasons that he’s well able have one right for the big day, but if I was an owner I’d like to see my horse competitive, at whatever level, more than once a season.
Not much money about for Holywell at the moment on Betfair.
I noticed that the firm who had Holywell at 7/1 have pushed him out a point.
I would imagine he’ll be a drifter on the day. Bookies have taken ante-post money at big prices but I can’t see any appeal in him whatsoever at 8/1. He has a fair bit to improve in my book and there are several contenders in there that weren’t on the radar when the money first started coming for Holywell.
Many Clouds, Carlingford Lough, Road To Riches, Djakadam and even perhaps Coneygree are all horses who are there or there abouts with Holywell in the betting and people will fancy one or two, even maybe all of them to beat Holywell this year.
We have a Hennessey winner in there, a Lexus winner, a Thyestes winner, an Irish Hennessey winner and a novice described as one of the most exciting in some time after beating his elders in The Denman Chase. In contrast, Holywell has won a Class 2 at Kelso at odds of 1/4 Fav.
Of course some people have opined that Holywell looked as good as ever, if not better, that day but it’s not a race that told us a lot. You can point to Holywell’s Cheltenham record and Jonjo’s “to the millisecond” preparation but he’s just not shown a lot this year and he needs to improve a good way yet, being 11 lbs lower than the favourite on the ratings.
In fact the ratings of the leading contenders are:-
Bobs Worth 166
Carlingford Lough 166
Coneygree 166
Holywell 163
Many Clouds 165
Lord Windermere 160
On His Own 164
Road To Riches 167
Silviniaco Conti 174
The Giant Bolster 164As we can see, there are several rated ahead of Holywell and some of them have at least as much scope for improvement as he has.
I think he’s terribly priced on his achievements and he’s a lay for me, with Lord Windermere a place lay given how many are ahead of him and how poorly he’s performed since his shock win.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Considering Holywell is one of only a few guaranteed to be eqally as effective on a sound surface, it is worrying he’s gone out that far (15/1 to back, but 22/1 to lay). There’s not that much difference between any of the other “likely” runners.
Value Is EverythingConsidering Holywell is one of only a few guaranteed to be eqally as effective on a sound surface, it is worrying he’s gone out that far (15/1 to back, but 22/1 to lay). There’s not that much difference between any of the other “likely” runners.
Don’t you think he was rank value at 8/1 Ginger?
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I thought he was about the right price at those odds David. There are a number rated higher than him but how many are likely to produce their best on the day? Silviniaco Conti didn’t run to anything like 174 last time; Many Clouds is probably better on a softer surface; same goes for Coneygree and he mightn’t run anyway; On His Own and The Giant Bolster are probably going the other way; Carlingford Lough was never going at Cheltenham last year and that must be a worry for him; Road To Riches seems to be improving but ran a shocker on the only occasion he crossed the pond, which is a concern. Lord Windermere won last season but I don’t see him as a dual Gold Cup winner.
Holywell has a lot going or him: he’s one of the few int he race you could say will really relish 3m 2f on likely good ground; he has won at the past two festivals, albeit in handicap company; he was the highest rated novice chaser to emerge from Cheltenham last season; he has proven his Grade 1 class company at Aintree the past two seasons.
He is one of the few who I feel is likely to improve for the Gold Cup conditions. I have doubts about many others being able to reproduce their ratings next Friday, and if there is something amiss with Holywell, as seems likely, I really don’t know where I’d start with the rest. I’d probably take a chance on Road To Riches.
<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>Gingertipster wrote:</div>
Considering Holywell is one of only a few guaranteed to be eqally as effective on a sound surface, it is worrying he’s gone out that far (15/1 to back, but 22/1 to lay). There’s not that much difference between any of the other “likely” runners.Don’t you think he was rank value at 8/1 Ginger?
For many of the same reasons THM has pointed out Steve… I rate Holywell considerably higher than you or the officiial handicapper, don’t think there’s much at all between the form of Road To Riches, Many Clouds and Hollywell and latter is the most likely of those three to be effective on genuinely good ground at Cheltenham. Djackadam is another with a chance too, but is less likely to be suited by the stamina test imo. Carlingford Lough is only the price he is because of AP, doesn’t jump well enough to win a Gold Cup; not that Holywell’s jumping is bomb proof. Lord Windermere is the worst quality Gold Cup winner I’ve ever seen and comes from a stable well out of form. But Jim Cullotty somehow returned from the wilderness last year. Coneygree is a danger to all, but vibes suggest more likely to go for the RSA (a day earlier on softer) now.
If pricing the race up now for genuinely good ground: I’d make Silviniaco Conti a bet with a Capital B. Best value of the whole meeting at the moment. So there isn’t imo much current value to be had elsewhere in the race. 8/1 is a bit short, but I would not want to lay bigger if I were a bookie and it’s better value than a lot of the rest. 10/1 freely available looks fair on form. Of all the runners I’d price up Holywell as second favourite given expected ground conditions; So the betfair mini-drift is disconcerting.
Value Is Everything
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