2000 Guineas 2013

I just think he has too much speed for it nathan. looking at the video he looks a very muscular well-built horse that has miler written all over him, maybe 10 furlongs too at a stretch but not a derby.

actually the sectionals, his looks, the fact they started off with a derby horse who is now more of a miler, and the way he won yesterday all rather reminded me of frankel and the way he won races like the guineas and the sussex.

my only concern for two weeks is that he ran so quick in the craven, will he be able to reproduce that again on the big day? Because if he can there’s little doubt about the winner.

(forget the derby, he won’t get a mile and half in a horse box)

He wasn’t stopping after the line, Hughes took some time pulling him up by the looks of things, (maybe Triptych could confirm this?) The Derby will be run you would hope at a slowing tempo then a Guineas and if the horse settles at such a pace and he looked relaxed enough yesterday then I don’t see it being a problem. Hannon still bullish about it after yesterday and it was the main target for the horse last year although admittedly he has shown more speed since but it’s the best chance of a Derby for Hannon and Hughes for over a million years and also I have a lickle voucher so I’m being optimistic…..

No he definitely wasn’t stopping until way past the post Nathan, and he came up the hill to the finish without much effort so will definitely get further but a mile and half…? couldn’t really say at this stage.

Just to confirm Hammy’s reply regarding the wind on the day..
it was rattling down the course, but I can’t take anything away from the way that horse won it was an amazing performance.

Would have liked to have seen a bit more opposition for him it was a poor turn out for the Craven.

All I’m hoping now is that the stats stand up and the winner of the Craven will not be the winner of the 2000 Guineas, like Trumpet Major last year beaten into 4th by Camelot and Delegator in 2009 beaten by Sea the Stars.

Jim Bolger will have watched that Craven win extremely carefully and probably hoping there will be a little rain fall in the next 2 weeks for his charge.

My moneys already down on Dawn Approach to win the Guineas and I’m still confident that he will. (that’s my own personal opinion) and really looking forward to seeing these two great horses run against each other.
This is the gauntlet that Dawn Approach needed, now he has to win the battle and put his doubters to rest.

Jac

As much as I would like Toronado to win this, EG Senor has made a good point in that wide margin winners of the Craven have not proved especially lucky in the Guineas. Considering it pretty much gives the horse a trial shot at what the guineas track feels like, this trial has rarely produced Guineas or even top notch Group 1 winners.

Since the Guineas win of Haafd in 2004 the following horses have won the Craven and fallen well short of top class:
2005 Democratic Deficit
2006 Killybegs
2007 Adagio
2008 Twice Over
2009 Delegator
2010 Elusive Pimpernel
2011 Native Khan
2012 Trumpet Major

Not exactly Hall of Fame stuff. Only Twice Over won at Group 1 level and not over a mile.

We need to be realistic about this trial and not get over-excited because of a visually impressive result in a weak race. Dawn Approach should still be a strong favourite for this race as he has beaten some excellent opposition in big fields, repeatedly.

Another negative would be Hannon’s record in this race. Am I right in thinking he’s never won this? Their best shot must have been Canford and they really messed that one up.

Thanks for correcting me Rob. I tried looking Hannon up on Racing Post "Major Wins" but I must have missed those!

I’d like to see a top class Group 1 winner in the Northern Hemisphere for High Chaparral, I have always been a bit of a fan.

As much as I would like Toronado to win this, EG Senor has made a good point in that wide margin winners of the Craven have not proved especially lucky in the Guineas. Considering it pretty much gives the horse a trial shot at what the guineas track feels like, this trial has rarely produced Guineas or even top notch Group 1 winners.

Since the Guineas win of Haafd in 2004 the following horses have won the Craven and fallen well short of top class:
2005 Democratic Deficit
2006 Killybegs
2007 Adagio
2008 Twice Over
2009 Delegator
2010 Elusive Pimpernel
2011 Native Khan
2012 Trumpet Major

Not exactly Hall of Fame stuff. Only Twice Over won at Group 1 level and not over a mile.

We need to be realistic about this trial and not get over-excited because of a visually impressive result in a weak race. Dawn Approach should still be a strong favourite for this race as he has beaten some excellent opposition in big fields, repeatedly.

Another negative would be Hannon’s record in this race. Am I right in thinking he’s never won this? Their best shot must have been Canford and they really messed that one up.

Yep, lets be

"realistic about this trial"

, lets not judge Toronado on

form

– what the horse beat and by how far…

Lets instead judge it on horses from another year/s; most of whom did not put up anywhere near the standard of performance Toronado did.

It is a Group 3!!!!! Of course not many will go on to Group 1 glory.

Richard Hannon may not have won the 2000 for a while; but he’s had so many to run well/place to make the not winning stat just a coincidence.

Just because only 4 horses take part does not make it a

"weak race"

, quality-wise it was far from weak.

Dawn Approach has performance/s only marginally better than Toronado and the Hannon horse is proven this season. Both horses may well improve further.

On "form" it is Dawn Approach who is over-rated by current prices. In my opinion Dawn Approach has only fractionally the better chance.

Lets instead judge it on horses from another year/s; most of whom did not put up anywhere near the standard of performance Toronado did.

It is a Group 3!!!!! Of course not many will go on to Group 1 glory.

Richard Hannon may not have won the 2000 for a while; but he’s had so many to run well/place to make the not winning stat just a coincidence.

Just because only 4 horses take part does not make it a

"weak race"

, quality-wise it was far from weak.

I am not convinced the form is necessarily that good Ginger. The trouble with a small field is that only a couple of runners need to fail to live up to previous form in order for the value of the winner’s performance to perhaps be suspect. Dundonnell looked the biggest danger, with some bluster about being unlucky when they had met previously. Dundonnell went to the Breeders Cup and didn’t seem to enjoy the experience much. He came into the race for a trainer who usually seems to have overhyped contenders, such as Top Offer last year, who flop, like pornstar legend John Holmes out of an open fly, when it comes to the crunch. The stable has had few runners so far this term and most of them have run poorly, including So Beloved today, who was a surprising five star tip for Timeform before finishing a well beaten 7th. If Dunndonnell hasn’t trained on, or needs more time for his trainer to extract the digit from his nether regions, it places a question mark on what Toronado beat in the Craven. The Godolpin horse looked all at sea on the ground, as had been forecast by some who saw him win in a swamp the time before. The boys in blue are more often missing than finding the bullseye early on in the past few seasons and it has to be said it was a pretty pathetic effort and surely he will be kept to softer ground in future. That leaves Havana Gold, who had a successful but busy season last year. A couple of his races didn’t seem to work out formwise and his head defeat at the hands of Ghurair (who also beat Dundonnell last season) looked a lot less exciting after that one could finish only third in a 1m 2f race the other day, after going into it as evens favourite and with, seemingly, a good bit in hand on the ratings. For me Toronado was always going to progress better than his stablemate this year and it may well be that he didn’t have to improve much, or not at all, in order to win the Craven.

I am by no means dismissing Toronado, it may be that Dunndonnell ran to his best and it wasn’t good enough but stable form seems to cast at least some doubt on that score.

Cheers Triptych and Steve Caution.

Would love to make it onto the course for the big day but unfortunately away that weekend in Cowes. I will definitely shout the pub down if DA does bolt up. That said, after watching Toronado’s performance I’m bricking it a bit.

Can’t help be impressed, but I thought the same about Delegator. With the pace it showed you’d be a bit worried about it getting the Derby trip and I guess the form needs to be treated with a bit of caution because he was allowed an uncontested lead. However, he is a serious contender, undefeated and shown his well-being and I’m wondering if Paddy Power would buy back my bet for a few shekels. Do bookies ever do this?

Lets instead judge it on horses from another year/s; most of whom did not put up anywhere near the standard of performance Toronado did.

It is a Group 3!!!!! Of course not many will go on to Group 1 glory.

Richard Hannon may not have won the 2000 for a while; but he’s had so many to run well/place to make the not winning stat just a coincidence.

Just because only 4 horses take part does not make it a

"weak race"

, quality-wise it was far from weak.

I am not convinced the form is necessarily that good Ginger. The trouble with a small field is that only a couple of runners need to fail to live up to previous form in order for the value of the winner’s performance to perhaps be suspect. Dundonnell looked the biggest danger, with some bluster about being unlucky when they had met previously. Dundonnell went to the Breeders Cup and didn’t seem to enjoy the experience much. He came into the race for a trainer who usually seems to have overhyped contenders, such as Top Offer last year, who flop, like pornstar legend John Holmes out of an open fly, when it comes to the crunch. The stable has had few runners so far this term and most of them have run poorly, including So Beloved today, who was a surprising five star tip for Timeform before finishing a well beaten 7th. If Dunndonnell hasn’t trained on, or needs more time for his trainer to extract the digit from his nether regions, it places a question mark on what Toronado beat in the Craven. The Godolpin horse looked all at sea on the ground, as had been forecast by some who saw him win in a swamp the time before. The boys in blue are more often missing than finding the bullseye early on in the past few seasons and it has to be said it was a pretty pathetic effort and surely he will be kept to softer ground in future. That leaves Havana Gold, who had a successful but busy season last year. A couple of his races didn’t seem to work out formwise and his head defeat at the hands of Ghurair (who also beat Dundonnell last season) looked a lot less exciting after that one could finish only third in a 1m 2f race the other day, after going into it as evens favourite and with, seemingly, a good bit in hand on the ratings. For me Toronado was always going to progress better than his stablemate this year and it may well be that he didn’t have to improve much, or not at all, in order to win the Craven.

I am by no means dismissing Toronado, it may be that Dunndonnell ran to his best and it wasn’t good enough but stable form seems to cast at least some doubt on that score.

I don’t believe Dundonnell ran to form either Steve; but not that far off. Judging from ratings beforehand there wasn’t much between the four runners. Havana Gold and Tawhid comaritive outsiders only because former was thought exposed, with far less prospect of improvement than the others. Latter thought to need softer ground and stable in poor form. Dundonnell’s connections thought he might not quite be fit enough and Toronado thought to have improved over Winter. Craven one race where expectations for all four came true. But there is no reason to believe Havana Gold did not run to form. Ghurair got beat this week, but only by a couple of unexposed sorts with plenty of potential. the Gosden horse seemed to beat the rest in exactly the manner you’d expect. So Ghurair probably ran somewhere near form. Even if you do believe no other Craven horse produced its best Steve, there is always time to fall back on.

Here is our old TRF pal Prufrock’s take on it:
http://www.timeform.com/show_article.asp?num=3185

Even considering Toronado had the run of the race and tail wind, he put up a top class time performance.

How would I get a list of all the 3year olds in training with R.Hannon this year?

For every yard Andyod, if you want a book get Raceform Horses In Training.

http://www.bookdepository.co.uk/book/97 … tAodmVgAgQ