2000 Guineas 2013

I’ve just texted him again and he says his good lady thinks Hot Snap (Midday’s sister?) is a bit backward yet.

According to my mate (Who has no interest whatsoever in racing.) her filly Riposte is Frankel’s auntie?? (Is that possible? )

You’re a star Hammy – thanks! I guess most of the fillies are backward what with the weather.

Riposte – a name to watch out for. My guess is she is a duaghter of Rainbow Lake who was Kind’s mum which would then technically make her Frankel’s aunt (wouldn’t it?).

I am in Qatar at the moment so don’t have my Horses in Training book to help me but I guess that’s it!

Thanks again!

You are right.

Riposte – by Dansili out of Rainbow Lake, born 25/02/10. No race entries yet, but as you probably know a lot of Khalid Abdulla’s horses are late developers and his three-year-olds often don’t get Classic entries until the last minute.

Hi Hammy..at last the flat is really going to start with Donny kicking off tomorrow and the Lincoln on Saturday, it won’t be long until the Craven Meeting at Newmarket and then the Guineas.

You certainly have your ear to the ground in Newmarket and the filly Riposte sounds a really interesting prospect and one to watch out for.

Great that you got 12’s for Dawn Approach I dithered and left it until he was a skinny 7/2 but now notice he has shortened even further to 11/4 and I think he might go off as short as 2/1 or lower.

I’m still convinced that nothing is going to beat him in the 2000 Guineas, I keep seeing him kicking for home 2 out and pulling away from the field, I remain ever the optimist

It was on another thread that I posted up this stat on the times of the running of the Dewhurst Stakes..here is a copy of them from the Best Bet thread where we are also talking about Dawn Approach amongst others.

On the 4 times the Dewhurst has been run on Good to Soft Ground since Teofilo won in 2006 the times have been as follows:-

Teofilo 2006 – 1m.26.12
New Approach 2007 – 1m.25.29
Frankel 2010 – 1m 25.73
Dawn Approach 2012 – 1m 24.00

Will be looking out for Ghurair if he turns out at the Craven Hammy and wish you luck with him, but there is only one for me and the Dawn is fast Approaching Jac

Hi again Hammy .. Another great picture.
How do you think Dawn Approach would take to skis?

I know exactly what you mean about Ghurair on the value side of the race and every possibility that he will run into a place.

It seems ‘fashionable’ for some pundits (not all) to be knocking DA’s turn of foot but I’m a great fan of Mr. Bolger and his ability to get one right for the day, and the fact that in an interview last October he said that he had a gallop at home that emulated the Rowley Mile is good enough for me, all being well by the time Dawn Approach turns out at the beginning of May he will be spot on and then it is all in the lap of the Gods…
and of course anything could win, I just want so much for him to claim the race that his sire just lost to Henrythenavigator, it will make my day.
Apologies if I’m getting really boring about how much I love this horse…I’m going to shut up now..

As you say The Craven Meeting heralds the true start of Spring and some great flat racing to come throughout the season. I’ll look out for more of your great pictures Hammy and your interesting profiles of the people and horses that make Newmarket such a fascinating place to be around..all good wishes..Jac

Cheers Joni (And MV) seems you were right about Riposte. I’ll pay even closer attention to her fortunes now.

Our local rag had a quote from John Gosden in it tonight saying "Ghurair is doing fine and may make an appearance at the Craven meeting, we’ll have to see."

Still hoping…

I can’t but help thinking Ghurair will be a horse for later in the season and probably over further than a mile. He didn’t strike me as a horse with a lot of speed and it is hard to erase the memory of his second run where he seemed to be caught flat footed. I think he has a lot to find over the winter to be competitive in the 2000 Guineas and given the trainer’s blank record in the race it would come as no surprise if Ghurair side-stepped the challenge and ended up at Chester or York this spring. I have a modest bet on Ghurair myself at 33/1 as a bit of fun doubled with Ill-fated stablemate Newfangled but I’ll be in a state of shock (albeit a pleasant one) if I collect on this one.

On the Oaks front, in a very open looking year, my eye was drawn to Secret Gesture trained by Ralph Beckett. A January foal by Galileo, she should improve this year and have an age edge at what is a relatively early stage of the season. At 25/1 she is my sporting selection for a stable who has won the race before.

Her trainer had the following to say about her on Sports News Ireland website:-

Beckett revealed: “We are looking at the Investec Oaks for Secret Gesture but we have to find out if she is good enough to go to Epsom first.

“Her next start will be in a trial but obviously which trial she goes for depends on how everything pans out.

“She has wintered well and is going well. She has not done any fast work – she is a way off that yet – but is in good shape. She was pretty backward last year and she did well to achieve what she did.

“On pedigree, the step up to middle distances should really suit her this year and if she is good enough for the Investec Oaks, the trip is not going to be an issue.

Bolger claims that Intense Focus ran fastest of all his Dewhurst winners.But maybe the going was good to firm that day.

Sorry Andyod…just noticed that you said Intense Focus and not Dawn Approach….. The ground was Good that day and he did it in 1m 23.33..so it still makes Dawn Approach look good.

It was good to soft ground the day that Dawn Approach ran his fastest time in the Dewhurst as highlighted here in the stats that I put together from the last 6 years that the Dewhurst was run on Good to Soft ground.

Here are those stats again…it makes Dawn Approach look very good indeed especially as he beat his sires time too and a certain Frankel.

Quote – from my last post:-

On the 4 times the Dewhurst has been run on Good to Soft

Ground since Teofilo won in 2006 the times have been as follows:-

Teofilo 2006 – 1m.26.12
New Approach 2007 – 1m.25.29
Frankel 2010 – 1m 25.73
Dawn Approach 2012 – 1m 24.00

Jac

It’s no secret that I can’t have DA winning the Guineas for many of the reasons stated by Hammy. He took an age to pick up that day at Newmarket and I can’t help thinking that a horse with a bif of a turn of foot will skip clear before he can get going.

The question is though does such a horse exist? If it does I think it is probably stabled at Ballydoyle. Kingsbarns was very impressive at Donny and it looks like he will be aimed at the race but it is always a bit of a guessing game with Aidan as to whether he will getting the horse 100% fit for the race or using it as a springboard for what has to be his main target -The Derby.

The one I like and have had some fun with is George Vancouver at 25-1. Let’s not forget this is a Grade 1 winner who showed he had speed and stamina in the Breeders Cup albeit on a firm surface. He will be ground dependent and I will be hoping for a dry April but I think he will be a player IF it dries and IF he actually runs! I see he is working after racing at The Curragh tomorrow which gives me encouragement.

For me he has less improvement to find than the likes of Ghurair as he is already rated 117 and I just think 25’s is too big a price about a Group 1 winning miler.

With all respect to George Vancouver, having already been beaten by Dawn Approach in the Dewhurst and also by Leitir Mor at the Curragh last September and Reckless Abandon last August, I can’t see how he will improve enough to reverse form with Dawn Approach if the ground is good to soft again or even good on Guineas Day. I could see him possibly sidestepping the UK Guineas and going for the Irish 2000 Guineas possibly, but as you said Joni on better ground we might see a different horse, nothing is set in stone in racing.

Just worth noting that Frankel didn’t look an all over winner of the 2010 Dewhurst 3 furlongs from home, he also took a keen hold and Queally had to settle him before he stormed home on the same ground conditions but in a slower time than Dawn Approach.

Jim Bolger will have addressed all the issues regarding the keeness and hesitancy in Dawn Approach before he comes to claim his crown in May and hopefully Kevin Manning will keep the ride as he knows the horse so well. Jac