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Judgement day on my ante post acca.
Hurricane Fly @11/2
Bobs Worth @6s
Quevega @Evs
Sprinter Sacre @5/4
Dawn Approach @7s£5 pays just over £8k
Managed to lay £2k on DA @6/4 in the week.
Will get £5k if he wins. C’mon Jim, make my day!
Judgement day on my ante post acca.
Hurricane Fly @11/2
Bobs Worth @6s
Quevega @Evs
Sprinter Sacre @5/4
Dawn Approach @7s£5 pays just over £8k
Managed to lay £2k on DA @6/4 in the week.
Will get £5k if he wins. C’mon Jim, make my day!
Chiching! Never realy a moment to worry! Impressive win both you and the horse!
That 12/1 looked massive this week for the Derby, cant see any 3 year old colt touching him.
Judgement day on my ante post acca.
Hurricane Fly @11/2
Bobs Worth @6s
Quevega @Evs
Sprinter Sacre @5/4
Dawn Approach @7s£5 pays just over £8k
Managed to lay £2k on DA @6/4 in the week.
Will get £5k if he wins. C’mon Jim, make my day!
Congratulations chief. Inspired accumulating!
I am more than happy by the result. He made Toronado look pedestrian.
However, be cautious before lumping on for The Derby.
I’m not so convinced he’ll be quite the same force round Epsom over a mile and a half. Right now, I will be looking to oppose Dawn Approach for that race.
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
Clearly the best today but a 150/1 shot in second makes you wonder how much strength in depth there was in the field. Toronado must have been flattered in the Craven and didn’t look like he would win the Donkey Derby for Richard (He’s the best I’ve ever ridden) Hughes, never mind the real version. If DA stays he will win at Epsom, as it is hard to see a staying horse (such as Battle Of Marengo) beating him under any other circumstances and it now seems like some sort of bizarre joke that Telescope was a third of the odds Dawn Approach was for victory at Epsom in recent days.
Despite some of the hype and bluster, in reality there were three misfits from O’Brien’s yard and some non-stayers in opposition today and I am glad Dawn Approach put the race to bed early enough, and by a big enough margin, to suggest he is a good winner, unlike Camelot last year, scrambling home from a field of moderate ability.
Congratulations to all who kept the faith and made money from a horse who answered his critics in no uncertain terms today.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I am more than happy by the result. He made Toronado look pedestrian.
However, be cautious before lumping on for The Derby.
I’m not so convinced he’ll be quite the same force round Epsom over a mile and a half. Right now, I will be looking to oppose Dawn Approach for that race.
6/4 Fav now with Corals, 5/2 is the best on offer as I write this. Toronado is out to 16/1 now but I wouldn’t touch him with a barge pole after that tame effort today. Funnily enough my first impression was that Toronado had beaten nothing in the Craven but I got drawn in a little by the hype. Luckily I did not bet apart from my ante-post on Moohaajim, who never stayed a yard despite his trainer’s optimism that he’d get a mile this year. A horse to avoid now for me.
Good luck opposing Dawn Approach, I have seen nothing this year that I would put up against him!
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Wouldn’t write off Toronado yet. Clare Balding said he was sweating up and it may be he needs to lead. Hughsie tried settling in behind the pacemaker early, but it didn’t really work. Toronado is probably better than he could show… I can’t have Willow Blaming Hughsie for going too fast early, doesn’t make sense. The rank outsider went faster in the first half of the race than Toronado and stayed on to take second.
Having said that… Toronado would’ve needed to be better than he looked in the Craven to beat Dawn Approach today anyway. Can see the Bolger/Godolphin horse being the star of 2013…
Having said that… Dawn Approach does look to be the only good horse to run to form. With Glory Awaits and Van Der Neer filling the minors.
Value Is EverythingDawn Approach "probably" won’t win the Derby. But as he’s 5/2 and not odds-on, I’d say he stands a better than 29% chance of winning. Around a fair 7/4 to 13/8 (36 to 38%) shot I’d say at this stage.
Take the 5/2.
Value Is EverythingI think the clue to the hype surrounding Toranado was that he had the benefit of a ferocious tailwind in the Craven and was significantly flattered by his race timing. It made the moderate form of the others in the Craven too easily dismissed.
I’m chuffed that Dawn Approach won in such fine style for his fans, especially Tryptych who faced not a little derision on one or two threads for her bullish contentions about DA. And she was proven 100% correct. Unfortunately for me -having waited for so long for my chance to get a few pictures of the Guineas field- the weather chose the hour or so surrounding the race to turn snide. We’ve had at least six days of all but unbroken sunshine here and still the big race was in horrible dull conditions. I got drenched, lost my lens cap and ended up with no decent shots of him at all.
http://i171.photobucket.com/albums/u307/ChristopherPHammond/Dawnapproach3rf_zps885b7aa0.jpg
At least DA’s win has paid for all of my Ante post bets for the season. [Although my one remaining bet which has four hundred quid running onto Mars for the Derby looks to be sunk.)
Despite being proven wrong in the Guineas though (I secretly thought he’d be beaten.
)I still can’t have him for the Derby myself. He looked yet again to get a little out of kilter when hitting Newmarket’s one significant undulation in the form of the Dip for a few strides. I can’t see his galloping style being suited by the Epsom course. I’ll probably look for something else to tip him up.…just my opinion like.
I couldn’t have got this one more wrong! Congratulations Jacqui!
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
Well Done to all who backed dawn approach, won easily in the end.. interesting to know people’s thoughts on the winning time? could be some horse..
Camelot 1m. 42.46s
the mighty Frankel 1m 37.30s
Dawn Approach 1m 35.84s
Dawn Approach "probably" won’t win the Derby. But as he’s 5/2 and not odds-on, I’d say he stands a better than 29% chance of winning. Around a fair 7/4 to 13/8 (36 to 38%) shot I’d say at this stage.
Take the 5/2.
Probably will, settles sweetly, travels well and never looked like stopping.could well go offclose to odds on.
I think the clue to the hype surrounding Toranado was that he had the benefit of a ferocious tailwind in the Craven and was significantly flattered by his race timing. It made the moderate form of the others in the Craven too easily dismissed.
I’m chuffed that Dawn Approach won in such fine style for his fans, especially Tryptych who faced not a little derision on one or two threads for her bullish contentions about DA. And she was proven 100% correct. Unfortunately for me -having waited for so long for my chance to get a few pictures of the Guineas field- the weather chose the hour or so surrounding the race to turn snide. We’ve had at least six days of all but unbroken sunshine here and still the big race was in horrible dull conditions. I got drenched, lost my lens cap and ended up with no decent shots of him at all.
http://i171.photobucket.com/albums/u307/ChristopherPHammond/Dawnapproach3rf_zps885b7aa0.jpg
At least DA’s win has paid for all of my Ante post bets for the season. [Although my one remaining bet which has four hundred quid running onto Mars for the Derby looks to be sunk.)
Despite being proven wrong in the Guineas though (I secretly thought he’d be beaten.
)I still can’t have him for the Derby myself. He looked yet again to get a little out of kilter when hitting Newmarket’s one significant undulation in the form of the Dip for a few strides. I can’t see his galloping style being suited by the Epsom course. I’ll probably look for something else to tip him up.…just my opinion like.
Thank you Hammy and Joni I was leaping up and down, soaking wet, but so happy to see him win by a fantastic 5 lengths today.
Kevin Manning got him stoked up before the reached the dreaded dip where he had looked so tapped for toe in the Dewhurst, and then came Toronado to take him on. DA just eyeballed him and said ‘Watch this’ and proceeded to scoot off down the remaining furlong or so of the Rowley Mile to a 5 length success.I am so happy Hammy that you have paid off your Ante Post bets for the season with his success and Joni it was great banter and I really enjoyed your views and reasons on why DA might not win, at the end of the day you have to believe in what you are backing and I have never doubted Dawn Approach and his ability to quicken 2 furlongs from home and produce an amazing turn of foot, nothing was going to catch him once he committed for home. A brilliant training feat by Jim Bolger.
After the race we tried to get down from the upper Grandstand as Dawn Approach was parading around the paddock but we missed him.
So we decided to rush around to the stables next to the pre-parade ring where we were rewarded with the sight of Dawn Approach being hosed down after the race by his lad and walked about a bit to cool down. Dawn Approach was so relaxed you wouldn’t have believed him to have run a race at all…his back leg was crooked in the relaxing position and after 10 minutes or so his lad brought him over to our little group and let us stroke and make a fuss of him, that made my day.Hammy, your picture of Dawn Approach is fantastic and wasn’t it a shame that 10 minutes before the runners started parading for the Guineas the heavens opened. So sorry you lost your lens cap, the rainfall was quite significant, BUT in a way I think that may have helped Dawn Approach so just think you can buy a new one with your winnings
Looking forward to being back there tomorrow for the 1000 Guineas, where I have backed What A Name and Sky Lantern (each way), not so confident about this race, just hopeful
Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...Great win today, can’t believe Dawn Approach is already 2/1! Was 12/1 not that long ago.
Should we back him now or wait?
Cheers Solar Eclipse et Peruvian Chief, I managed to get thoroughly toasted on many different types of booze!
I didn’t expect it to be that easy. As the race unfolded, I kept waiting for DA to hit his flat spot but it didn’t occur.
Steve Caution, for fecks sake, stop trying to crab the form. He won by 5 lengths.
Elgransenor1, you’re decidedly quiet. In the words of Alan Partridge, get some letters arrange them on a plate and eat them….what I’m trying to say is eat your words.
Not too sure about DA getting the Derby trip but I said the same about Sea The Stars.
)I still can’t have him for the Derby myself. He looked yet again to get a little out of kilter when hitting Newmarket’s one significant undulation in the form of the Dip for a few strides. I can’t see his galloping style being suited by the Epsom course. I’ll probably look for something else to tip him up.
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