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I’m still happy with my two investments thus far. Dawn Approach has to be the best looking prospect so far this season but I still harbour the suspicion that Ghurair should have won three out of three. He just would not race when beaten by Olympic Glory at newmarket and basically stayed with the field without seeming to put in any effort whatsoever. I think it’s fair to say the form got a boost on sunday too with Hannon’s colt winning at Longchamp.
It is probably ill considered speculation on my part but I’m intrigued to see how Ghurair performs when he’s matured a little and some of the kinks are ironed out. As I said at the beginning of the thread the chap who tipped him to me couldn’t have been any more convincing and I thought Gosden’s interview following the Newmarket race on Saturday hinted at how sweet he is on the colt. I got the impression he was telling the interviewer that Ghurair is the best two year old prospect in his yard which has to be a fairly decent indictment of the horse.
Time will tell.
Dont feel too bad Hammy I, the humblest of men, read your every word!
Well I can promise you the deed is duly reciprocated Andy.While 33/1 Steeler would be a respectable quote in normal circumstances, it is unlikely that he will be trained at Middleham next year. Shamardal in 2005 won the Poulains and Jockey-Club after being transferred to Godolphin. The litany of unsuccessful transfers doesn’t make 33/1 for the 2000 Guineas sound that tempting.
True, there have been far more disappointments than successes since, I think it was Dayflower, who started the trend of a holiday in the sun before the Guineas. I remember Shamardal all too well having backed him for the English Guineas ante post and then watched him do his thing in France instead. I don’t think Steeler is far behind the best though, and Mark Johnston seems fairly bullish that improvement is on the cards over the Winter. While Dawn Approach is at the top of the tree for now, he started off his career earlier than the average contender for the following year’s Classics, and it is a slight doubt to me that he will match the improvement of those who perhaps took/will take more time to learn their craft. There are question marks regarding most of the horses ahead of him in the betting as well, with several looking more likely to prefer further and some who have trainers with modest records in the race. I’ll chance a wee wager with Willie Hill at double carpet, just to have something to stick under the lucky rabbit on the mantelpiece. "The Owl and Hedgehog have been sacked!"
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Dawn Approach looked the complete article physically from day one.Perhaps that is of concern to those looking for improvement as a three year old.Saturday will tell us more on that score.Ballydoyle like to push Bolger in the Dewhurst.Interesting to see if Cristoforo Colombo runs.May be his first run since slipping up at the Curragh.
Dawn Approach and Trading Leather are colts.Apart from the money another good reason he sold Dawn Approach. Now he has to sell Trading Leather!He seems to run a breeding ground for the Sheik.
Looking back on the first pages of this thread sadly Newfangled no longer with us and the 12-1 about Dawn Approach long gone.
Have just taken7/2 about Dawn Approach
with Paddy Power today with small savers on
Kingsbarns
and
Reckless Abandon (each way).
Sorry Hammy but I can’t see Ghurair winning the 2000 Guineas now as he seems held by others in the race namely Olympic Glory on a line through Dawn Approach but sure he will win a good race during the course of the flat season.
Long way to go yet has anyone heard any gallop reports on the leading contenders?
Jac
Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...You might be right Tryptych, my money is usually the kiss of death.
Unfortunately, along with quite a few of the rest of us, you’ve wasted your cash on DA. He will NOT win the Guineas.
I’m ever the optimist Hammy and I still truly believe that Dawn Approach will storm home in the Guineas on the 4th May. There’s no doubt he will handle the course and the uphill finish and he’s built to get the trip and not too much more.
The only thing that would beat him would probably be heavy ground.
I’ve everything crossed that he stays sound, if he does he wins Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...I’m ever the optimist Hammy and I still truly believe that Dawn Approach will storm home in the Guineas on the 4th May. There’s no doubt he will handle the course and the uphill finish and he’s built to get the trip and not too much more.
The only thing that would beat him would probably be heavy ground.
I’ve everything crossed that he stays sound, if he does he wins Do you think he handled it in the Dewhurst Triptych? Didn’t look like it to me – took a nage to pick up and only did so when he hit the rising ground. By the time he does that in the Guineas others will have flown.
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
Do you think he handled it in the Dewhurst Triptych? Didn’t look like it to me – took a nage to pick up and only did so when he hit the rising ground. By the time he does that in the Guineas others will have flown.
I can see your point Jonibake as from where we were standing up in the high grandstand, there was a moment when we thought that Leiter Mor had done his job too well, but as soon as Kevin Manning switched Dawn Approach right he seemed to know what he had to do and found a stunning turn of foot to assert his authority, he was motoring up the uphill finish 1 furlong out and eased down at the finish, it was quite something to see.
The fact that he stays with Jim Bolger is a brilliant move by Godolphin as Bolger will have him spot on for the day, Bolger has said in an interview that he has a stretch of gallop with an uphill finish that mirrors that of the Rowley Mile.
He’s not as delicate as his dad and doesn’t need to be ponied to post, he’s built more like a sprinter and I’m hoping he will be the one flying at the finish on Guineas Day.
Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...Horses have memories and learn quickly.When he reaches the dip next time he will be ready.
I bumped into Racing Dave (Dave Milnes) while out walking this morning down by the Alba Hathri gallop. He was obviously there to watch something specific work, although I didn’t ask him what.
We chatted for a few minutes while he awaited the trainer and I took the chance to try and sound him out about Ghurair’s chances in the Guineas. He reckons I have a decent EW chance, but didn’t give me the impression that he was particularly keen on the colt’s chances, so not really the news I was hoping for.
I went on to ask what he thought of Dawm Approach’s chance. (I’ve backed him at 12’s for the Guineas.) Dave was his usual non-committal self, but when I told him that I’m not completely convinced the colt will have enough speed for the big race he nodded and replied, ‘You might be right’. I didn’t get the impression that he was absolutely convinced by the Bolger colt either, though I don’t want to put words in his mouth.
My guess is that he thinks it still a little early to make a judgement on any of the prospects for the first classic.
…I haven’t given up hope yet for my ante-post bets on the Gosden horse.
Hi Hammy!
Great to read your views and best of luck with that Gosden horse and the new season in general! Exciting time of year isn’t it?
Have you any other news from the gallops? I am hearing Cecil has a nice filly called Hot Snap. I have already backed her for the Oaks. Heard anything about her?
Cheers
Joni
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
Toronado has been reported to be working well at home and is entered for the Craven. I’ll be keeping my eye on this one.
Well I can promise you the deed is duly reciprocated Andy.
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