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You’d still have to be concerned with Russian Triggers jumping, although I suppose he’s still relatively young;I’ll re watch the race and concentrate on him. What can you say about Hello Buds jumping, although NTD still seems to think that Irish Raptor is the one for the National, and he knows more than me about training winners.
Sorry Moe, didn’t take too much notice of Russian Trigger’s jumping, as for obvious reasons (ie, last season) I was concentrating on Miko De Beauchene’s!
Looks like money has gone west on Himalayan Trail, unless Sue Smith does a Venetia:-
Himalayan Trail
Won the Midlands National for us in 2008. He’s been in Ireland since, but we’ve got him back again now and ran him at Wetherby on Saturday when he went well for a long way. The old boy seems in good form. He’ll run in northern handicaps and it would be lovely to think we could go back and have another crack at the Midlands National.
Sue SmithButler’s Cabin
NOT IN THE STABLE TOUR!
Can’t Buy Time
Unfortunately he finished last season with a fall in the Grand National. He ran at Ascot the other day and AP [McCoy] performed a minor miracle to keep the partnership intact as he slipped going into the second fence and almost came down. He eventually came back on an even keel but you cannot give that much ground away in competitive races like that and he eventually finished tenth. The plan for him will centre around the Hennessy Gold Cup at Newbury at the end of the month.
That means he’s not necessarily going for the National??? With fewer good, older horses in his string this year, Jonjo can’t afford to fire a scattergun at the National???
Don’t Push It
A great old servant to the yard but he needs to go left-handed. He finished last season with victory at the Grand National meeting in April, which was pleasing for all concerned. He returned to the course last month and went really well in the race won by Monet’s Garden over a trip that was on the short side. Ran a blinder in the mud at Cheltenham on Saturday; we were worried about the ground, but he coped with it. he may be a Grand National horse if he jumps and stays as well as he did on Saturday.
The last bit means he could be a runner, or could be in the shake-up???
6g Possol
I’m thinking about running him in a novice hurdle at Ascot at the end of the week, and he may well continue to run in novice hurdles for much of the season. There’s a very good reason for that – we’re thinking about the Grand National[/color:mvi8qjr8]. He jumps very well and it’s an option we want to give ourselves. After the weights have come out, he could go for the Racing Post Chase again – he was second to Nacarat last year. The ground is important to him, he has to have good ground, and the water they put on the track at Cheltenham last year wasn’t any good for him.
Yeah, I hope you’re reading this, Simon Claisse; it wasn’t any good for Blue Bajan either.[/color:mvi8qjr8]
7g Sherwoods Folly
Disappointed at Carlisle on his reappearance. He was bombing along nicely in front but then made a noise, and has since had a wind operation. He’s back in work now and hasn’t missed much time, so we’ll crack on over 3m-plus on soft ground. He ran very well to be fifth in the Welsh National[/color:mvi8qjr8] last season and he’s 11 lb lower now, so that race is a distinct possibility. There are plenty of those big staying chases he can run in through the winter, the valuable 3m4f race at Haydock[/color:mvi8qjr8] in February springs to mind. Richard Johnson gets on particularly well with him – I’ve never really understood that sort of thing but he’s always run better for Richard.
8g Always Waining
Although he hasn’t won since last September, he’s been running quite consistently of late, except for his last run when he was very well beaten in a Listed 3m handicap chase at Ascot. The only thing I can think of to explain that performance was that he was very stroppy when we put his tongue-tie on, so next time we’ll leave it off. We’ll probably head to Aintree next Sunday for either the Sefton or the Becher Chase as he goes well over the National fences. On his best form he’s well handicapped, so he can win again.
I’ve read elsewhere that the target is the Topham. This is far more sensible than the rumour I read a few weeks ago that it was going to target the National.[/color:2c7t6blv]
9g Back To Bid
He has some serious form as a youngster for Noel Meade, but he lost his way during the last two years. He came here and we had him fired, but he was disappointing first time out at Chepstow in October. It turned out that he bled during the race, so we addressed that problem and he then went to Carlisle for a staying handicap chase and ran a blinder to finish second. Our short-term plan is to take him to Hexham for their 4m National on Wednesday[/color:2c7t6blv]. He stays forever, he needs soft ground, he jumps well, and if all goes well this week, he could go to Chepstow over Christmas for the Welsh National[/color:2c7t6blv] – he could be just the sort for that race.
9g Valley Ride
He won a valuable staying Listed handicap for us at Market Rasen first time out this season but he was disappointing in the Badger Ales Trophy at Wincanton last time, although the race there wasn’t run to suit him. He was beaten a long way, but they went off so quick that he was taken off his feet and just couldn’t get competitive. Market Rasen is my favourite track because we’ve had a lot of success down there for years, but I’m hoping this one might just be too good to go back to the track for a race like the Summer Plate next year. In the long term, I think he could be a lot better than his handicap mark. Although he’s not the best I’ve ever had, he hasn’t got much mileage on the clock and there’s no reason why he shouldn’t progress.
Written elsewhere that the target is the Grand National[/color:2c7t6blv].
Badgerlaw
The plan was to go for all the good staying handicap chases. He galloped into the first fence in the Munster National at Limerick and never jumped a fence after that, but he’d schooled very well since. I’m not sure he saw out the trip in the Cork Grand National yesterday. The ground was very heavy and he had a lot of weight, but after travelling well at 3m he didn’t get home.
I wrote the night before the Midlands National this year that I don’t think Badgerlaw stays those kinds of distances (despite him previously coming 2nd in the Midlands) and so far that seems to be the case.[/color:2zisumf3]
7g Horner Woods
The plan is the Hennessy[/color:2zisumf3] at Newbury. I was happy with his run in the Brown Lad Hurdle at Naas, and since then he’s schooled around Punchestown. If he could repeat his RSA Chase run at Cheltenham he’d go there with a chance. That’s his early season aim, after that we’ll lower or raise our sights. We’re not looking beyond that at the moment.
Go on, you know you want to.[/color:2zisumf3]
I was too tired to do this one yesterday.
Has had five runners in the GN since 2002, but none in the last three runnings. Last runner Ross Comm did okay afterwards, so I assume she hasn’t had anything good enough or suitable. I investigated because she didn’t mention the National for any horse, but that may just be the kind of person she is, with more immediate targets, and the possibility of things going wrong in the meantime.
7g Auroras Encore
I was very pleased with him last season when he finished up by winning a nice race at the Scottish National meeting. He’s had one run so far this season, at Market Rasen yesterday, when he ran well until he got tired in the ground. He’s down as having refused, but he didn’t: Tjade made his decision too late to pull up and ended up doing so on the take-off side od a fence. We may now go for the
7g Coe
He did everything he should over fences as a novice and ran a good race at Haydock first time back this season, finishing second to Never So Blue, giving a lot of weight to the winner. His jumping is better this time, and he’s obviously a staying chaser. He’s a smashing horse, sound and straightforward and he’ll have an entry in the
Himalayan Trail
already done a few posts back.
9g Mill Side
He was kept hunting until he was seven, so it was quite difficult for him to adapt, but he’s settled in well now. he’s a good-going horse, who jumps very well; in fact, his forte is his jumping. he’s the sort who would relish something like the Becher Chase, if we could get him into a race like that.8g Mr Strachan
Skipping, because his OR is only 127. However, please note that Smith says he will win races this season.
10g Turpin Green
Previously trained by Nicky Richards. It’s taken him a little bit of time to settle in to the way we do things, but I’m pleased with him now. He’s working well and he’s schooled and never put a foot wrong. The proof of the pudding will be when we take him to the races. Finished third in the Cheltenham Gold Cup and has a lot of talent. You only have to ride him to realise he’s got a big engine. He’s rated 145 and is eligible for veterans’ chases.
Turpin Green; the sort of quirky horse that could take to Aintree and I’d imagine the Smiths are good with horses that are a bit mental because they freshen them up a lot and keep them interested. Quite a challenge, this one; mad and lame!
Did a search for Denman on google, and restricted it to the past 24 hours.
Came across this:-
http://blog.grand-national-guide.co.uk/ … s-trainer/
Elsewhere on this site, I’m referred to as a lunatic. A rather sobering experience.
I was a lunatic for backing 20 horse already – am now up to 35, excluding Star Du Mohaison and Drumconvis. I suppose I can understand where they are coming from, but in my own defence I’m effectively trying to get a combined 6/4 about an Even Money shot, or 2/1 about a 6/4 chance.
Admittedly, this is now an uphill struggle if the bets on Merigo, Garde Champetre, Himalayan Trail and Golden Flight are all waste.
Errrr, this is the Grand National thread, Gerald [your sleep pattern is even more wierd than mine!]. Perhaps not deja vu but more groundhog day. Must say that if I allowed myself to have a betfair account I would probably have had more bets than you by now, especially as, no matter how many times I get my fingers burned [sp;t?] I still forget that people enter horses for races with no intention of running them….
Because I had ignored/dismissed this horse for the 2009 race, I had pretty much done the same so far this time as well. The sight of the name Strong Gale probably has a lot to do with it. Am going to ignore that, and also that in his lowest quadrant he has the 7f/miler My Babu.
The thing to realise is that he had the whole of 2008 off, and the GN was his second race back! Became leader after the 22nd, and it is understandable that he faded [KC: yeah, Strong Gale].
Ran off 147, so even if he is dropped a few pounds he should still make it into the race.
Won a G1 Novice Chase at Punchestown, 25f, achieving an RPR of 156. Has only had 7 chase runs, so it is quite reasonable to expect him to achieve a rating in the 160s at some stage.
That’s just a basic, core bet. I’ll put more money on if he goes 80, 85+.
I’m withholding publishing an updated portfolio as I don’t want to be held up to too much public ridicule.
Apologies to Gerald for comments made about your staking plan – inappropriate/lazy choice of words – no offence meant. Good luck with your project – and congratulations on picking the winner last year.
My own fault, Pablo.
I sort of get a thrill out of shocking people about how many horses I’m backing – I just wasn’t prepared to deal with any comments.
I’m supposed to be doing a major shortlisting next weekend after the Hennessy, because the last few GN winners had run twice by Christmas, so they ought to have run once by the start of December.
Anyway, if one is doing say 1 ante-post bet now then it should be on something "sensible", and that means you know the horse is vaguely okay because it has run this season, rather than still on the comeback list.
I must admit that I have the feeling that my portfolio isn’t too great at the moment, because of the horses that I’ve put most money on being doubtful starters (Merigo, Golden Flight, Garde Champetre, Himalayan Trail).
Anyway, lets see if I can pull this one out of the fire. I managed to just about have winning races for each of the Caulfield Cup, Cox Plate and Melbourne Cup, without knowing two or three months ago the difference between a spruiker and a roughie. Although this is a big trends race, the problem is that the trainers are trying to adopt various methods to outwit the Handicapper.
£6 @ 55 State Of Play
53p @ 44 Comply Or Die
£19.90 @ 85.22 Russian Trigger
£9.52 @ 71.85 Gone To Lunch
£6.81 @ 85.39 Arbor Supreme
£4 @ 240 Trabolgan
£13.58 @ 65 Offshore Account
£14 @ 150.36 Kilbeggan Blade
£9.78 @ 127.93 Preists Leap
£20.92 @ 126.68 Ballytrim
£13 @ 137.78 Iris de Balme
£19.41 @ 174.66 Flintoff
£56.51 @ 98.93 Garde Champetre
£13.10 @ 103.44 Irish Invader
£7 @ 120.76 Southern Vic
£12.57 @ 111.59 Parsons Legacy
£8.56 @ 100 War Of Attrition
60p @ 500 A New Story
£5.55 @ 143.59 Killyglen
£5 @ 160 Siegemaster
£58.15 @ 108.64 Merigo
£11.47 @ 216.22 Morgan Be
£14.53 @ 167.82 Coe
£10.52 @ 179.05 Jass
£2.60 @ 451.54 Will Be Done
£25.94 @ 193.57 Miko De Beauchene
£1.99 @ 320 Kilcrea Castle
£2.55 @ 240 Operation Houdini
£5 @ 141.6 Dont Push It
£4.59 @ 172.61 Hoo La Baloo
£14.50 @ 188.05 Chief Dan George£16.99 @ 120 Bothar Na
£39.69 @ 125.31 Golden Flight
£5.29 @ 166.22 High Chimes
£39.49 @ 122.26 Himalayan Trail
£9.94 @ 131.64 Boychuk£24 @ 1 Drumconvis
£534.88
The one I’m most embarrassed about is Chief Dan George, partly because his price keeps on going out. Also, it was pointed out he doesn’t have form in big fields, but I reckoned coming 5th in the Scottish National is okay. The trained said in simple words that the target is the National, so I’m on at the price.
Hoo La Baloo and Southern Vic are similar, in that I don’t particularly fancy them but as they are likely to run I might as well include them at the price.
Recently read the trainer said Rambling Minster had a fright jumping the National fences, so I doubt he’ll be back.
Backed Kilcrea Castle because I was impressed with Casey Jones, and Kilcrea Castle came second to him. (Am still waiting for CJ’s price to go out.)
Operation Houdini is in good form.
Boychuk has gone out of the Hennessy betting, so he must be injured again.
I’m rather annoyed with Bothar Na, as I thought it was reasonable to bet him at the time, with the second [edit: third] at Punchestown showing that he is fit again, but he hasn’t achieved anything since.
I perhaps shouldn’t have put so much on Preists Leap, as he hasn’t yet appeared this season.
High Chimes was an early speculative bet, on the presumption that the owners and trainer may have developed a taste for the race.
I was very pleased with Morgan Be’s run today, and he goes for the Borders National next. (I’ll leave it to my jumping expert Moe to advise me on Turpin Green.)
I suppose I’ve got a tendency to ignore key races or Class 1 form, but horses in the 130s on the way up won’t have that yet.
Just realised that I left this one out of the Stable Tours.
Bothar Na
He’s proved difficult to win with and we’re considering trying something different and maybe going the cross-country route with him. – Willie Mullins
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