2010 Grand National portfolio

I was thinking at lunchtime about not bothering doing any more posts, but maybe I was just feeling tired. However it means I have to admit to having had a bet on

Will Be Done

today. However, as I had £2 @ 140 on Barney McGrew in the Ayr Gold Cup and £3 something @ 560 something on Crime Scene in the Melbourne Cup, both second, I shouldn’t feel so embarrassed anymore about some of my more speculative bets.

Contributing factors are that he is trained by McCain,the name reminds me of the 72 winner Well To Do , the horse is back in training, and what else do you do with a staying chaser rated 147? Okay the smartass answer to the latter is run him in the Irish 5 days earlier, or in the Scottish a week or fortnight later.

Another problem is that he is Owner-Bred, and they might not be keen to risk him – however, if that is the case, why send him to a trainer associated with the National?

Will Be Done (IRE)
8-y-o (08Jun01 ch g)
Zaffaran (USA) (14.0f) — Deenish (IRE) (Callernish )
Trainer D McCain Jnr
Owner Mr & Mrs R N C Hall
Breeder Richard Hall

Dosage is slightly dodgy, but Zaffaran is also the sire of Looks Like Trouble and Beau.

WILL BE DONE (IRE) ch. G, 2001 DP = 1-5-6-4-0 (16) DI = 1.29 CD = 0.19

Pretty picture time.

http://images.racingpost.com/2009/Jan/3661-will-be-done.jpg

Killyglen

I’ve changed my mind about having a bet on him. Bought One Jump Ahead today (trainers are basically the same as in the RP stable tours though) and the Hennessy and Welsh National are mentioned. (Gerald formula H + WN = GN.) The trainer also queries whether it is a waste of time going for the Gold Cup with Kauto and Denman about. This seems to increase the likelihood of a GN tilt in my eyes, and in this context getting beat on Sunday hasn’t gone amiss.

I’ve also been nibbling away at any 130 about

Boychuk

.

£5.55 @ 143.59 Killyglen
£8.85 @ 130 Boychuk (total Boychuk bets)

Finally, the last horse added to the betfair market is Chief Dan George. Also came across today the ATR Gordon Brown stable tour where the GN is mentioned as THE target. However, there is the Cavelino (I think) statistic about CDG’s poor performances in big fields.

Its okay Moe. I did briefly see £1600 flash past my eyes. I made a £10 profit in the win market, and £12 profit in the place market (Mourilyan), and I’m just relieved that I didn’t lose £270 via Viewed winning.

I learnt a lot , well, a bit, about Australian racing, and on the betfair forum using dosage, conduit mare profile indices and fitness I got the field down to 5 the week before, including Shocking. That is why I added Shocking to my Portfolio last week, before he won the Lexus.

I’m really pleased for Mark Kavanagh, after what happened to Maldivian, Whobegotyou and Shamoline Warrior.

There’s a lot of talk about Shocking being parked three wide without cover, but I believe there was a headwind, which means that in the backstraight there was a tailwind, so it didn’t matter. However, I might have got that 180 degrees wrong, in which case it did matter.

Yes, one weird coincidence was that the only day I’ve been racing this year was the Friday of Glorious Goodwood, where I met up with Gingertipster, and Warringah, Crime Scene and Basaltico all ran in the first race!

Crime Scene was basically unknown to me as well because he had run so much in Dubai.

There is a little bit of aftertiming in this paragraph, because I haven’t commented on this before. I think people have been taking too many inferences from Basaltico being a "Cumani horse". I believe that the horse didn’t join Bedford House until late Spring or early Summer, so Cumani didn’t have the winter to get to know the horse, and work his magic on him. All through August when they were running the horse, they were still trying to get to know him.

http://www.lucacumani.com/news.html

edit: There is a little bit less aftertiming in this paragraph, as it was backed up at the time by me closing my eyes and putting the bet on, even though I didn’t think Crime Scene had much chance. Godolphin entered 7 horses for the Spring Carnival, but very quickly it was whittled down to 2 or 3 horses for the Melbourne Cup, including Crime Scene (Kirklees and a change of mind about Eastern Anthem).
I suppose next year it might be better to put EW bets on the Godolphin horses at the bookies, particularly as there are only 3 placed in the betfair place market, apparently because that is all there is in Australia.

Meade ran him yesterday, even though the Hennessy weights haven’t come out yet. How many other h’caps are there where the weights aren’t announced for a fortnight after the entries are in???

Carberry didn’t seem to start riding the horse to obtain the best possible position until after Notre Pere fell, but maybe that is just the appearance of his quiet style. It seemed they had already given up hope of winning before the race started because of the rain-softened ground.

Anyway, the horse’s rating is still okay, and if it is soft for the Hennessy his rating will still be okay after that as well.

Unfortunately over the past few days the 75-90 for the National has disappeared and he is in the 30s. Will have to be patient, waiting for the price to go back up.

For the Hennessy I’m on at an average of 20, so at least I’ve got that bit covered.

Looks like the trainer doesn’t know what he’s doing, the jockey doesn’t know what he’s doing, and me the punter doesn’t know what he’s doing!

9g Miko De Beauchene

. . . He later showed most of the ability is still there with a third place in the Blue Square Gold Cup. I’ve been delighted with his work and Philip, our head lad, rode him last week and got quite excited about him. I’d like to get him back for another crack at the Chepstow race over Christmas.

I’ve also got the fact that the Alners don’t run horses in the GN, whilst Venetia usually has a couple in it, on my side.

Also, Venetia doesn’t like fast ground, as it is bad for the horses’ legs and tendons.

9g Mon Mome

. . . What matters most is getting him back to Aintree for a third crack at the National. . .

Only just noticed this one. Ex Nicholls.

7g Officier De Reserve

The second of Barry Hurley’s new ones, he came here straight after the Midlands National. I’m going to learn a lot more about him when he runs, which will be as soon as there’s plenty of cut in the ground somewhere, but judged on his performance in the Welsh National last season, where he ran well before failing to stay, there should be a nice handicap chase to be won with him over a trip in excess of 3m.

Still a young horse.

Have decided to leave Zacharova out of consideration.

10g Black Apalachi

He’s just come back in and will be aimed at the

10g Justpourit

He’s a good ground horse, but he’s not genuine; he’d get placed every day of the week but doesn’t like being in front. We’ll persevere with him. I think the

Skipping

Rare Bob

and

Siegemaster

.

9g Vic Venturi

We’re going to go to Aintree with him for the

Gungadu has joined Gordon Elliott, but there’s no point in slipping him a few euros to enter the horse, as he’s slipped down to 152.

Why does there seem to be so many horses being nominated for the Becher Chase? Is it the £70,000 to the winner, or are trainers using it as a reconnaissance mission for the National, and will enter for the big one so long as the horse jumps and runs well?

Well, no sooner do we stumble across the fact that Gungadu has joined Gordon Elliott, than we find out he is a Grand National candidate.

Apparently we can ignore the fact his damsire is the sprinter Mummy’s Pet, because Gungadu’s dam is a sister to The Tsarevich!

Although I’ve been putting money on horses at 99/1 or 119/1 on the basis that they are almost certain runners, so it is good odds for a 40 runner race, I have the feeling that an extra special performance is required to win this year, because the race seems fairly competitive.

A relatively unexposed horse such as Over The Creek might fit the bill. However, I’ve been wondering about how good Mon Mome’s victory was last year. The pace slowed down with the departure of Black Apalachi and Silver Birch, so that at the last fence there were 15 or 16 horses within a few lengths of each other. This was the opposite of the usual scenario outlined by Fist, where you think your horse is doing okay, but then the speed gets turned on just before Valentine’s, and you find you misjudged the situation and your horse is backpedalling. The winning distance was put into the rest of the field by Mon Mome after the last fence. Are there are form students or sectional timing experts out there who can cast any light on whether his winning distance was worth more than it actually was?

I had resolved last night to hold off betting on the GN for a couple of weeks, after I decided I had wasted the money put on Merigo, Garde Champetre, Golden Flight and Himalayan Flight, as they don’t seem likely to run in the race.

However, had to get involved with Don’t Push It. I’ve had a look at his pedigree a couple of times before, so I don’t think there is a stamina problem. The combination of owner and trainer makes it likely the horse will run in the race, particularly after it was aimed at the 3m3f race today.

Was a bit slow to get the 170, so its just a saver.

Miko De Beauchene ran a great seasonal pipe-opener, and I was glad to see Biddock sensibly pull him up. I’ll have to have a bet on Hello Bud, but it will have to wait for him to drift out to 70 or 80, or closer to the race.