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A Ballydoyle horse (depending on who they run) is the only one that might get near New Approach
Which one is going to be the No 1 runner from Ballydoyle?
Sitting here holding a raft of a-p bets on Jupiter Pluvius from 25-1 down, and hoping to lay off some at a decent (ie around 8-1 tops) price. I’m worried that Ladbrokes still offer the horse at 10-1. Any clues as to what JM will ride…??
J
Interesting point about Jupiter Pluvius is that there was plenty of money coming in for him right up until the craven, where the stable ran The Bogberry (probably to guage the strength of the opposition as much as anything) from which point onwards theres barely been a penny for Jupiter Pluvius, is it possible the backers have seen something in the craven result they didnt like?
I always usually try to look for an e/w in the guineas but think the e/w market in the 1000 guineas has more chance of throwing up an e/w priced winner, this years 2,000 guineas looks to have a strong chance of being won by a rating that few horses ever tend to get to on guineas day and I dont think that it will be won by a bigger priced one.
Personally, I would not take any notice of Ballydoyle horses runs untill Guineas weekend, so its always hard to know with them
I would tend to agree with regards ignoring ballydoyle form until guineas weekend as o’brien usually tends to run only those that either need the run or may not be doing that much at home prior to the guineas. However, his two year olds last year didnt look as good as others in recent years, and the task ahead of jupiter pluvius looks far greater than any of o’briens other winner that I can remember. I definitely think it will not only take a very good performance from one of his but it will take a few to run below form for O’brien to get one in the guineas enclosure. This does not look to be his year for the guineas
So if one of o’briens horse wins,then all of the main fancies will have performed below there best??. horses improve at different rates throughout the winter,and the season in general.Look at peeping fawn,kris kin ,golan ,generous the list could go on who would of throught any of these horses would of gone on to win classics. on a another note the so called labrokes inside info is over rated as far as im concerned,how many big price winners so called 2nd strings have won big races for o,brien over the yrs-,if i remember righly they were the bookies offering the biggest price on the rock just before the 2002 guineas,and look what happened there.
So if one of o’briens horse wins,then all of the main fancies will have performed below there best??. .
Quick answer – Yes, more than likely. I think people will be still backing o’briens but it will be just out of hope more than anything, but the chance of him winning compared to the price you will get will not make it a bet IMO. I think I would far rather rely on the high probability that he wont win and take advantage of those who will be backing him blindly.
Jupiter Pluvius might win the Guineas if he stays but big IF. No doubt he has been backed on home work (and being Pricewise) . Beating those bred to be milers or more, but so he should show more speed at home than most of Coolmore’s three year olds.
Apparently Ravens Pass is a doubtful stayer, despite finishing well clear of the 3rd in the Craven and staying well enough to run Twice Over very close. Losing less than a length on "stayer" Twice Over in the final furlong.Jupiter Pluvius is by Johannesburg who barely stayed a mile and who’s stock so far don’t seem to stay as far as he did. JP is out of a sprinting mare who is from a sprinting family.
The chances of Ravens Pass staying a mile on good is I believe around 90 or 95%.
The chances of Jupiter Pluvius staying is I believe less than 50 – 50, probably more like 40%.Ginge
Value Is EverythingCant fancy Jupiter Pluvius simply as he is by Johannesburg who just does not seem to be hitting the big time with his progeny
My fancy is with Godolphin’s Ibn Khaldun who did not do anything wrong last season and who looks the real deal.
Was certain that Johannesburg smoked the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile over a mile and another 1/16 of a mile further, Ginge.
APO’B and his Classic charge are savers for mine if the main wager flops.
My fancy is with Godolphin’s Ibn Khaldun who did not do anything wrong last season and who looks the real deal.
It’s true that he didn’t do a lot wrong last season but a three length win over City Leader and a couple of 66/1 shots doesn’t really do it for me. A horse who seems to have been overlooked somewhat lately (on the strength of some lazy workouts in Dubai) is Fast Company. his 1/2 length second to New Approach after being slowly away is as solid form as anything. He was also reported to have worked much better last week, although if the ground was fast at HQ it’s likely he’ll be switched with Rio De La Plata and head to the French Guineas.
Totally agree Librettist. Fast Company is a massively talented horse imo, the best 3yo Godolphin have if racecourse performance as a 2yo is anything to go by. Manning had to take a whip ban to beat him in the Dewhurst and look at the price. I cant wait to see him run again.
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I wouldn’t have my worst enemy’s money on Ravens Pass, or anything with form associated with the craven or ravens pass. If connections ran a derby horse to give it any easy race before better things, they must have had the craven down as a gimme. Or at least thats the only logical thing i can come up with IMO. Mind you i’m round the bend, not sure if it was right or left handed though
UN
Surely Twice Over ran in the Craven to see if he was fast enough to win the Guineas?
As you point out, his 2yo form is hardly that of a specialist miler but, win, lose, or even a proper test at that stage of the season would do little harm to his Derby prospects.
Henry has obviously decided he hasn’t – or that his best chance of glory lies over further, as his previous form indicates – though he still showed enough class to beat one of the top 2yo’s from last season which augurs very well for his chances over a more suitable distance.Regarding Ravens Pass’s run in the Craven, the horse wasn’t inconvenienced by similar ground as a 2yo, and travelled well enough on the Newmarket going to suggest ir wasn’t a major problem here (despite his jockey’s comments to the contrary), but has twice been found wanting when given any sort of stamina test, and racecourse performance would always be a better guide (imo) than any amount of speculation about breeding or going preferences. To suggest he ‘blew up’ is laughable, particularly in view of Jimbo’s paddock comments that he was more forward than the winner,
Was certain that Johannesburg smoked the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile over a mile and another 1/16 of a mile further, Ginge.
APO’B and his Classic charge are savers for mine if the main wager flops.
Myles,
Horses tend to stay better on dirt and around tight turns. His profile in Europe on turf suggests he was better at short of a mile. Certainly most of his progeny are better short of a mile.Ginge
Value Is EverythingI wouldn’t have my worst enemy’s money on Ravens Pass, or anything with form associated with the craven or ravens pass. If connections ran a derby horse to give it any easy race before better things, they must have had the craven down as a gimme. Or at least thats the only logical thing i can come up with IMO. Mind you i’m round the bend, not sure if it was right or left handed though
UN
Surely Twice Over ran in the Craven to see if he was fast enough to win the Guineas?
As you point out, his 2yo form is hardly that of a specialist miler but, win, lose, or even a proper test at that stage of the season would do little harm to his Derby prospects.
Henry has obviously decided he hasn’t – or that his best chance of glory lies over further, as his previous form indicates – though he still showed enough class to beat one of the top 2yo’s from last season which augurs very well for his chances over a more suitable distance.Regarding Ravens Pass’s run in the Craven, the horse wasn’t inconvenienced by similar ground as a 2yo, and travelled well enough on the Newmarket going to suggest ir wasn’t a major problem here (despite his jockey’s comments to the contrary), but has twice been found wanting when given any sort of stamina test, and racecourse performance would always be a better guide (imo) than any amount of speculation about breeding or going preferences. To suggest he ‘blew up’ is laughable, particularly in view of Jimbo’s paddock comments that he was more forward than the winner,
I backed Twice Over for the reasons stated prior race in the craven, (it didn’t make any sense). The stuff about him being a 10F specialist, he might as well run in the guineas, an uncompetitive dante tells you squat. He’s got 10 allready? If the Craven was competitive as has been stated then his form is adequate to take his chance. If however he is deemed too slow, anything he beat is not up to it IMO. You can’t have it both ways, i never said Ravens Pass blew up, and i would always want to back Twice Over in a match on any surface over a mile or further.
Is it significant that Ladbrokes are best priced on Jupiter Pluvius but worst on Henrtythenavigator? I am a big fan (probably more wishful than on genuine form) of the former, but looking through the form of the latter, 1m on decent ground will almost certainly bring the best out of him. I was going to wait for later races like the St James’ Palace or even the Eclipse, but if the ground was good or faster, I think I’ll be laying off Jupiter and getting stuck into Henry, its not like O’Brien hasn’t won classics with his so called 2nd string before.
Henry need to improve lots and never really impressed me last year. Even the Coventry hasnt worked out at all well
Look at it this way…what price would he be if not trained by AOB?
But his best form was on fast ground and he wasn’t disgraced on soft and heavy, also the Coventry was clearly too sharp a trip for him as he did it all at the end. People are quick to make allowances for Raven’s Pass, but being by Kingmambo, he is almost certainly best on decent ground and his last 2 runs were on anything but that. And if you look at his run against New Approach compared to Raven’s Pass’s he was beaten a similar distance giving 4lb away, which is a pretty good run.
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