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Thanks Venusian, your info about Danehill gives me more to think about.
Tesio was writing about lists of distances attained by Stallions offspring in a publication called "Bloodstock Breeders Review"
He said that "A further study of these lists reveals another interesting factor. Stallions do not occupy the same position in the classification year after year, but have a tendency to move up or down. Generally as they grow older they move up as their percentage of products with staying power increases".
If this was the case in Tesio’s time, it must have had something to do with the kind of mares successful stallions tended to attract.
Perhaps he was referring to top classic sires, who might well get more classically bred mares as they become more successful, with fewer of the speedier bred, more commercial types being booked to them.
Of course, Tesio may just have been plain wrong – he was undoubtedly a genius but statistical analysis wasn’t his strong point. He was a superb judge of a mare, the best ever, and a supremely gifted observer of horses and their behaviour.
Very good points, if all the mares sent in a year had staying influence, then the classification would change if most were say, sprinters before.
As Tesio himself acknowledged, if a 12f race only has sprinters entered, one of them will win.
Had a look at the Danehill colts who won G1’s recently, Rock of Gibraltar and George Washington had Damsires that won G1’s at 10f, Dylan Thomas has Diesis. Oratorio and North Light both had Damsires that won at 12f.
I wonder what the Duke of Marmalade will win as his Damsire won at 8f.
Couldn’t win at all last year.Well done Henry – correct decision – always listen to Uncle Flash.
Twice Over would’ve gone to Newmarket with a very real chance but lets do it properly Dante – Derby thats the more natural stepping stone IMO.
I thought his running plans were a little strange "twice over". Run him over 8 & 10, find out he might be a little quicker. bring him back to 8 not fully wound up for a "race", in a supposedly competitive craven. Win that then back up try 10.5 to see if he stays and goes round a bend, if he wins that easily then the obvious move is the July Cup
With 30 still left in the race,heres hoping the no more than 20 line up,what i dont want to see is a massive field like last yr when 95% of them had no chance the field then split into two groups and you have one side having an advantage and the other playing catch up.With 20 or less your more likely to get the field coming up the centre of the tack making it a level playing field
I thought his running plans were a little strange "twice over". Run him over 8 & 10, find out he might be a little quicker. bring him back to 8 not fully wound up for a "race", in a supposedly competitive craven. Win that then back up try 10.5 to see if he stays and goes round a bend, if he wins that easily then the obvious move is the July Cup
Lol. Yep it is a little bit strange.
I don’t really know how Henry is going to judge Twice Over’s Derby stamina by the Dante as the horse has already won going away over ten furlongs ????
Henry needs to worry not Twice Over WILL get the Derby trip.
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if he wins that easily then the obvious move is the July Cup
Pfft. I’ve alredy taken the 6-4 for next year’s Triumph Hurdle. I’ll do a Fist, though, and claim that I’ve got 33s.
With Twice Over out of the Guineas, I can’t see beyond Raven’s Pass. He’ll stay if held up a bit longer; the Craven run was ideal to blow away the cobwebs.
I wouldn’t have my worst enemy’s money on Ravens Pass, or anything with form associated with the craven or ravens pass. If connections ran a derby horse to give it any easy race before better things, they must have had the craven down as a gimme. Or at least thats the only logical thing i can come up with IMO. Mind you i’m round the bend, not sure if it was right or left handed though
- Total Posts 438
If connections ran a derby horse to give it any easy race before better things, they must have had the craven down as a gimme.
Don’t agree with that. They had to start somewhere and Cecil has used the Craven for middle-distance types in the past (King’s Theatre being an obvious example). Gosden was clear that he’d have preferred the Greenham for Raven’s Pass but the better ground swung it in Newmarket’s favour; the horse has had almost the perfect prep race and will be primed for the big day.
Just being an anorak, but a couple of pages back it was mentioned that
"You cant really say that Ravens Pass doesnt hale from good breeding as his Argentinian dam has only produced two and the other is rated 108 which is still pretty good, and this one is rated 122"
Which is wrong in quite alot of ways.
1) His dam isn’t Argentinian, she’s American.
2) She has bred 7 foals of racing age, not two.
3) Four of those are winners, including Raven’s Pass.
4) "The other" is not rated 108 – that is a meanless figure really as he is a multiple stakes winner (up to Gr.3) in the States.Don’t just trust the Racing Post base when it comes to US form!!!
His dam and his black-type winning half-brother both stayed a mile well and there are plenty of mile+ winners in the family – on breeding there is no reason why he shouldn’t appreciate the mile.
What i’m saying is they didn’t wan’t to overstretch Twice Over, yet the craven was been hyped up as a competitive affair. You can’t have it both ways, if it was just a warm up the form must be questionable, stand by for a surprise in the 2000.
A Ballydoyle horse (depending on who they run) is the only one that might get near New Approach
A Ballydoyle horse (depending on who they run) is the only one that might get near New Approach
Can see your betting slip for the 2000 F/C
Fav to beat whoever ballydoyle runs
I’ve zero creative input to offer on this thread, but I did just want to say hello again to Ultimate Nightmare after what must have been a board hiatus of nine or ten months. Welcome back!
gc
Jeremy Grayson. Son of immigrant. Adoptive father of two. Metadata librarian. Freelance point-to-point / horse racing writer, analyst and commentator wonk. Loves music, buses, cats, the BBC Micro, ale. Advocate of CBT, PACE and therapeutic parenting. Aspergers.
I’ve zero creative input to offer on this thread, but I did just want to say hello again to Ultimate Nightmare after what must have been a board hiatus of nine or ten months. Welcome back!
gc
Thanks,
i think you hit the nail on the head though, there can be no input other than guesswork, we’ve had the trials that weren’t; it’s back to who’s turning up and have they still got four usable legs.
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