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Not gonna knock Field Of Gold as he clearly has every chance and well done on those AP prices. Can’t have him at his odds now though, no craven winner since 2004 and there’s always little holes you can poke into form.
Eyes on the Gosden team as he has yet to win this race but I’m all eyez on another who hasn’t won this race. Jessica Harrington.
Green Impact 14/1 – Beat Delacroix who finished so so close to Hotazhell in the RP trophy (Wimbledon back in third) next time. On bare form he is a nice price. 16’s available 3 places, I’ll have the 4.I’d have been keen on Shadow Of Light at the price but for the bad vibes.
Buick choosing Ruling Court only one issue. Shadow Of Light has better form than Ruling Court yet Buick chooses the latter. Sometimes home work can sway a jockey. But in this case Ruling Court should be an 8f to 10f (possibly even 12f) horse; whereas Shadow Of light should be 6f to 8f. So I would not be expecting Ruling Court to show anywhere near the speed Shadow Of Light is at home.
Shadow Of Light is also now tongue tied for the first time. For me – a tongue tie can be a positive if coming off a defeat, but his last two runs were excellent Middle Park and Dewhurst victories.
So why the tongue tie?
Remember Air Force One?Value Is EverythingCannot believe that Cosmic Year went off at 6-4 in an egg and spoon race.
Thank you, BOG!
Oisin was right after Kempton – the horse looked like a cat on a hot tin roof running down into the dip. Once they met the rising ground, though, the result was never in doubt.
Yes, that unexplained tongue tie is a bit of red flag, GT. Has he been making a noise on the gallops?
Very interesting fact re the tongue-tie Ginge
taken it into account but I’m sticking with Shadow Of Light EW and thrown in Field Of Gold – Win as he is such a beautiful looking horse and his performance winning the Craven was amazing.Shadow Of Light – EW
Field Of Gold – WINSmall rev.forecast on those two.
Should be a good race..JacThings turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...Seagulls Eleven win and 4 places on the exchange for me.
I have lost all my antepost bets due to the those horses no longer being entered for one reason or another.
I backed his sire when he won in 2016, and he has as a 2YO achieved about the same as Galileo Gold did as a 2YO so I’m hoping that he has trained on and Hugo Palmer has him ready.
In the last 20 years this race has been won 5 times by colts with an SP larger than 10/1.
I see Ruling Court is also wearing a tongue tie, so maybe it’s an Appleby thing?
(Supposedly not a first time tongue tie though I can’t see that he was wearing one in any of his previous races?)Main punt is
Scorthy Champ at 9s, win onlyPlus, a small e/w wager on
Seagulls Eleven at 50s (1st 4)Best of luck to all today
If it wasn’t for aidans poor recent record I’d fancy expanded strongly. Excellent second run in the dewhurst and think would have won in another few strides. The paddock look will tell us as lot but the guineas don’t seem to be coolmores big priority these days. Seagulls eleven ew also.
My 2000 Guineas 100% Book:
Field Of Gold 35% 15/8
Ruling Court 22% 7/2
Scorthy Champ 10% 9/1
Expanded 10% 9/1
Shadow Of Light 10% 9/1
Green Impact 8.75% 10/1 (almost)
Wimbledon Hawkeye 3.25% 28/1
Seagulls Eleven 0.5% 200/1
Tornado Alert 0.3% 300/1
Benevento 0.25% 400/1
Yoh Moh Be There 0.2% 500/1Have backed:
Ruling Court @ 9/2
Scorthy Champ @ 11/1
Green Impact @ 13/1
with a saver on Field Of Gold @ 2/1Value Is Everything“I’d have been keen on Shadow Of Light at the price but for the bad vibes.”
Absolutely.
But there don’t seem to be the same bad vibes about Expanded who was only a neck behind Shadow Of Light in the Dewhurst so on that basis, if you like the Dewurst form at all but don’t like the SOL signals, he rates value at 15/2 I think (currently 9/1 Betfair with about £1k available).
I’ll also be having a little on Tornado Flyer (74/1 bet fair to about £130 available) – bit of an under the radar trainer these days, remarkably, but can still get them ready and this fellow’s potential is untapped.
Cormack
Oscar,
Ruling Court wore a tongue tie for the first time last time out in Meydan for his 6 lengths victory.
It clearly helped (or at least didn’t hinder) him.
That came after an Acomb defeat in August and the fact he wasn’t seen out again as a two year old suggests a problem. On March 1st the tongue tie seems to have cured whatever was wrong.Shadow Of Light was last seen winning the Middle Park and Dewhurst at the back end of the two year old season. So was therefore in A1 condition at that time. The fact they’ve put a tongue tie on now, suggests they’ve had a problem with him over the Winter. A problem that has yet to be proven has been solved by the tongue tie.
Buick riding Ruling Court suggests he either does not believe the problem has been solved, or does not believe the horse will stay or thinks the horse is not showing the right sparkle at home, or that Ruling Court is going much the better at home / has improved. Or all or some of the above.
How good a horse is is only one thing to consider. The likelihood of a horse running to that form can be a massive negative that needs to be taken into account when assessing whether the horse is a good price.
Value Is Everything“But there don’t seem to be the same bad vibes about Expanded who was only a neck behind Shadow Of Light in the Dewhurst so on that basis, if you like the Dewurst form at all but don’t like the SOL signals, he rates value at 15/2 I think (currently 9/1 Betfair with about £1k available)”.
Depends if you think the winning distances express how good they are, David.
For me they weren’t really in the same race.
For sure Expanded was having only his second race of his life – so should improve and therefore has a chance today. But may well be flattered by the Dewhurst result. Has more to find than a neck winning distance suggests.
Expanded went to the stand side and Shadow Of Light remained in the centre for most of the trip.
Expanded was a long way clear of Shadow Of Light.
I’m not even sure whether Expanded was the best horse of the two that raced on that rail. Ancient Truth was going the better of the pair for a long way and possibly failed to stay.
Shadow Of Light was imo inconvenienced by positioning… and yet found a good turn of foot to get there.Value Is Everything“The fact they’ve put a tongue tie on now, suggests they’ve had a problem with him over the Winter. A problem that has yet to be proven has been solved by the tongue tie.”
They may have put the tongue tie on Shadow Of Light because it worked so well with Ruling Court last time. Apart from the trip question mark, Appleby didn’t relay any concerns about breathing or anything in his preview.
“He won impressively at Meydan and is guaranteed to get the mile here, which came into William’s thinking as he chose which one to ride. Shadow Of Light has done very well from two to three and has definitely come forward since his racecourse gallop. He continues to show the natural pace he displayed as a juvenile, which means there’s always going to be a question mark about getting a mile.”Also on Expanded: Both The Lion In Winter and Twain aren’t ready and Expanded is pretty much their 3rd choice. Most of Ballymore’s recent Guineas horses haven’t been at their best. However, the yard’s horses are generally in much better form than they have been at this time of year in recent seasons.
Value Is EverythingYes GT, there are some Qs but it didn’t look to be an advantage to be stands versus centre on that day so I think the result was a fair reflection of merit on the day. Expanded had to plough his own furrow for a long way, which can be hard to do there, while Shadow Of Light had cover for a fair part of the race.
I hear your concerns and they are valid enough but I think the 15/2 is decent value (still available with a few firms) and I see he’s now contracted a point on BF to 8.8 so not being abandoned in the market.
taken it into account but I’m sticking with Shadow Of Light EW and thrown in Field Of Gold – Win as he is such a beautiful looking horse and his performance winning the Craven was amazing.
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