Home › Forums › Big Races – Discussion › 2000 Guineas 2009
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The Ante-Post King.
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- December 19, 2008 at 15:40 #197987
Zacinto, now that is Classic quality breeding. Dansili has had a Gr.1 miler – Price Tag won the Matriarch at Hollywood Park after her shameful relegation from 1st to 3rd in the French 1000 Guineas.
Dansili’s stay well enough and there are plenty of 10f animals on the dam’s side, so that would probably be his optimum distance eventually, but there are also plenty of encouraging signs that the early 8f would suit. The only other black-type winner bred to the cross (Dansili/Distant View) had the speed to win over 5f as a 2yo, and Zacinto’s dam was best at 7-8f.
January 15, 2009 at 00:41 #203994Ashrams just received a small boost.
Classy Syrinx from the Noseda stable (4th behind Ashram in the summer) just won an all ages handicap at Kempton.
Was well in on the weights but it’s a boost all the same
January 15, 2009 at 03:04 #204010Just thought of 3 speculative little Classic lucky 15s last night.
2,000 guineas – Zacinto @ 16-1
1,000 guineas – Serious Attitude @ 16-1, Maoineach @ 33-1, Aspen Darlin @ 50-1
Oaks – Fantasia @ 12-1
Derby – Montaff @ whatever price I can get him at.
1,000 guineas is the hardest to pick from a long way off, and depends on how early the fillies lose their winter coats, so will go for a few in it.
January 15, 2009 at 18:20 #204082I like the look of Westphalia, had a bit of a mixed 2yr old campaign, but I honestly believe he could be the one to follow from a mile to longer distances.
JohnJ.
January 15, 2009 at 22:19 #204137JOHN,
Westphalia certainly has a progressive profile, his form is very
reliable, although really soft ground is against him. He has run solid races
against Group winning performers e,g Bushranger, Intense Focus, and of
course his victory over Zacinto, i can assure you he is not in the same class as Mastercraftsman, but at 33/1 is certainly a Guineas outsider with
a chance if the "Master" and "Rip Van" dont make it to Newmarket! I personally see him as a St james palace contender, Ascot would suit him
better than it would suit the Galloping giant that is the "Master"!January 16, 2009 at 01:00 #204178IMO Danehill dancers tend to make decent 2yos and his best usually hit their peak around the start of their 3yo season, but dont seem to do much after. They also thrive with cut under foot. Look at Speciosa , Fast Company (probably the best looking danehill dancer Ive seen), Indesatchel, Savethisdanceforme, Carribean Sunset, Gaspar Van Wittel etc
Many people compare Danehill Dancer with Danehill but he is nothing alike IMO. Danehills are usually best on a faster surface, where DDs are almost an exact opposite, and Danehill could knock up many a horse who could dominate not just their 2yo but 3yo seasons and sometimes beyond, Ive yet to see a DD do that.
Ive not really been hugely impressed by either of O’briens Danehill Dancers, Westphalia or Mastercraftsman but if the 2,000 guineas comes up with give in the ground then I would definitely give them a good chance, but wouldnt have them down to dominate 1 mile distances next season. Westphalias beating of Zacinto is IMO a better piece of form than anything RVW has done to date, but being by Galileo RVW should show better form in his 3yo season and AOB seems to think he’s special enough.
Of all the 2yos I saw last season Naqoos was the only one who IMO looked that little bit special, and looked like he has plenty of improvement about him too, will he come over, who knows? Arguably so too did Art Connoiseur for the early parts of the season before looking troublesome, would be good to see him make a return to form.
Zacinto would be my favorite in the 2000 guineas as he looks a guineas type through and through, should love the trip, have improvement and should lovfe any ground on the better side of good, its hard to see him missing it, and with stoutes tendency to put his out in a trial beforehand, I can see him very short on the day.
Giants Causeway dominated the early season 1mile races in 2005 with his first crop winning the 2000 guineas, Poulains, 2nd in 1000, and winning the St James Palace and Coronation Stakes. He hasnt had the same arsenal since but on that basis it would be foolish IMO to rule out a Jim Bolger trained Dewhurst winner in Intense focus, as although he never really looked special for most of last season, he seemed to be taking a liking for racing by the end there and is very much a serious contender IMO. Remember that Footstepsinthesand was barely even seen at 2yo.
This years Guineas looks wide open to me as everything stands, and who knows what AOB will release on the day, Henrythenavigator was hardly even considered seriously this time last year, by myself included.
January 16, 2009 at 15:27 #204301IMO Danehill dancers tend to make decent 2yos and his best usually hit their peak around the start of their 3yo season, but dont seem to do much after. They also thrive with cut under foot. Look at Speciosa , Fast Company (probably the best looking danehill dancer Ive seen), Indesatchel, Savethisdanceforme, Carribean Sunset, Gaspar Van Wittel etc
Many people compare Danehill Dancer with Danehill but he is nothing alike IMO. Danehills are usually best on a faster surface, where DDs are almost an exact opposite, and Danehill could knock up many a horse who could dominate not just their 2yo but 3yo seasons and sometimes beyond, Ive yet to see a DD do that.
Ive not really been hugely impressed by either of O’briens Danehill Dancers, Westphalia or Mastercraftsman but if the 2,000 guineas comes up with give in the ground then I would definitely give them a good chance.
My italics
I would query this. You’re right that DDs are not inconvenienced in any way by cut in the ground – he has had a number of Group winners even on Heavy. But his many of his top animals have shown that they are also capable of winning on good ground or faster – of his 7 Northern Hemisphere Gr.1 winners Miss Beatrix won her Gr.1 on good, Where Or When on G-to-F, Alexander Tango and of course Choisir both won on Firm. Jeremy won black-type races on everything from soft to G-t-F. As Mastercraftsman won the Phoenix on G-to-F and Westphalia ran with great credit on Firm at the BC, I wouldn’t have any fears over them handling drier ground in the Guineas.
January 16, 2009 at 19:07 #204379There i that possibility Sal, there are exceptions to every rule in breeding (choisir especially), however I always bet against DDs on firm and bet with them with cut, and it almost always works. Admittedly Mastercraftsmans phoenix win was a bit of a kick in the nuts, but that was a strange race IMO and I didnt rate the form of it that strongly, as IMO the opposition failed to run their race. IMO a horse doesnt need perfect underfoot conditions to win, but usually a horse will only be at its best.
Ive noticed over the last few years especially, that at the start of almost every recent flat season in ireland there will usually appear to be danehill dancers winning everywhere, and to a lesser extent, so to in the UK, although in the UK there seems to be much more Pivotals opposing DDs quite well. Usually as soon as the better ground comes in, usually around may or so, you dont see much more from the danehill dancers that were all over their races early on.
January 16, 2009 at 23:53 #204473Looking at Mastercraftman as a 2yr,its pretty obvious whatever he did last yr that he would make a better 3yr,his run in the phoenix stakes was a very good effort beating some good horses in the process,i dont subcribe to the idea that his rivals ran below form( why do people seem to come up with that.That if a couple of fancied horses get beat then its seems that they had to of run below form) I like this horse a lot and would be surprised if he was out of the 1st 3 come guineas day .
January 17, 2009 at 02:43 #204519Time will tell New York and he was voted 2yo of the year, but its just an opinion thing and he wouldnt be heavily fancied on my shortlist as everything stands and IMO it is a very open year, probably the most open since Footstepsinthesands and Haafhds wins.
January 19, 2009 at 22:09 #205183I see Ashram has been purchased by the big blue machine which is hardly surprising. Interesting to see how much improvement he has for the change. He struck me as an individual who would need the experience of every race at 2. I think his dewhurst run was pleasing and he’s probably at this point Godolphins leading hope for the Guineas? I just wonder though if a mile would be as far as he will get and could be on the edge of limitations. Currently 25/1 generally though
February 1, 2009 at 17:16 #207523I think it’s terribly politically charged, but since Ashram joins Godolphin, it is my obligation to bin him.
And it is a real disappointment. He’s currently trading at 40s somewhere and that is great insurance if a hotpots like Mastercraftsman, Zacinto, Arazan fail.
I could almost side Ashram alongside Rip Van Winkle as "untapped performances" in the Dewhurst. If you rule a line through the race entirely, the Somerville Tattersall was a complete procession. So devastating.
Anyway, I came here to bump this thread up the order and question – why is Evasive so short???
February 1, 2009 at 17:37 #207527I think it’s terribly politically charged, but since Ashram joins Godolphin, it is my obligation to bin him.
And it is a real disappointment. He’s currently trading at 40s somewhere and that is great insurance if a hotpots like Mastercraftsman, Zacinto, Arazan fail.
I could almost side Ashram alongside Rip Van Winkle as "untapped performances" in the Dewhurst. If you rule a line through the race entirely, the Somerville Tattersall was a complete procession. So devastating.
Anyway, I came here to bump this thread up the order and question – why is Evasive so short???
Why not? He’s a progressive horse and lets face it its the most open Ante Post 2000 Guineas market for a while.
The question I’d rather ask is why is Rip Van Winkle favourite? On the back of what? If this horse isn’t a false favourite someone please show me one.
February 1, 2009 at 20:18 #207555I feel in the dark going into this years 2000 Guineas, Naqoos looks the type to improve though his sires lack abilty too get a mile is a major worry, he looks unfurnished at two, but he might well stay in France…
Intense Focuss should he is his fathers son in the Dewhurst, whether he will improve from two too three remains too be seen. Rip Van Winkle looks a Derby horse, he looks allot like his sire who was a two yearold..
March 3, 2009 at 18:25 #213246Breaking News-
ZACINTO OUT OF THE 2,000 GUINEAS!!!!!!!

Not great news, more to follow on the racing post site
March 3, 2009 at 21:34 #213288ZACINTO OUT OF THE 2,000 GUINEAS!!!!!!!

ARGHHHH CRAP!
… I was looking forward to him.Mind you, Crowded House is the horse that I can’t wait to see again.
March 4, 2009 at 01:18 #213310Me too, he looked a classic winner in the making, though it may be the Irish Derby or the St Leger..
I am not a fan of Oasis Dreams beyond seven furlongs especally coming out for the dip on the climb too the line with the petrol gauge on empty….
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