2000 Guineas 2009

Aidan,"Looking Back" the Dam of "Rip Van Winkle" is a daughter of "Stravinsky"
who never ran further than 7f in his life and whose 3 victories were at 5-6f
the dam herself only ran twice, both times in Italy over 1m."Looking Backs"
Dam "Mustique Dream" is a daughter of the 2,000gns winner "Dont forget me" who never got any further than the mile.The Dam of "Stravinsky"
"Fire the Groom" is closely related to Prince Khalids useful sprinter "Dowsing"! There is more chance of "Rip van Winkle" winning the
July cup than the Derby with that Breeding!

I pretty much choked on my soup at this point.

The closest match I have found for the Galileo/Stravinsky cross (RVW is the only one) is Incanto Dream, by Galileo out of a Nureyev mare from a decent US sprinter/miler family (Stormy Atlantic, Hail Atlantis, Mr Katowice). For those who have missed this, Incanto Dream’s most recent start was second in the Prix du Cadran over 20f. That’s the strength of the Galileo prepotency. He has plenty of speedy types at two, and even has some sprinters such as Gallant Tess in Australia, but even they have the stamina to win over a mile.

Stravinsky himself is as yet unproven as a broodmare sire, but none of the sires in RVW’s damside have the prepotency to match Galileo.

Is the tail female line’s influence strong enough to counteract him? Well, to begin with, your info is duff. Looking Back raced 17 times in Italy and won two races over 7f (at 2 and 3), and was not disgraced in her races over a mile, finishing second in a conditions race. Her only black-type was finishing second in a Listed race over 1500m (7 and a half furlongs). Definitely more sprinter/miler than out-and-out speed influence.

Mustique Dream (RVW’s grandam) won two races, both over a mile at 3. She has had two other winners, one winner over 5f as a 2yo, the other won 2 races over a mile at 3 (by Fasliyev and Diktat respectively).

How is any of this a profile of a sprinter, rather than a Guineas horse? I can’t see Derby, but a mile should certainly not be a concern.

The rest of the dam’s side, rather than being packed with speed, is actually quite heavy on the jump horses – some good mile/10f horses such as Ace, Danish and Hawkeye, but also the family of Alderbrook and Sybillin. My main concern with RVW would actually be lack of quality. It is not a strong female family in the first 3 generations, and I don’t think he would make a suitable sire in the long term.

I personally don’t see Rip Van Winkle as a guineas winner, but I’m afraid the breeding analysis that places him as a sprinter has been done by someone possibly delirious from lack of sleep.

Sal, are you sure it wasn"t "Alphabet spaghetti" you choked on?
The Grandam "Mustique dream" see above both speedy types there!
and being a daughter of "Dony forget me" hardly the breeding of a Derby
contender! and that is my point! "Rip van winkle" was the first horse to be quoted Ante-post for the Derby back in July and remained the 10/1fav
until Sept when "Sea the Stars" became 8/1 fav! I personally believe that
"Rip van " is a sprinter and will be interested to see his entry for the July cup! Aidan has plenty more "stoutly bred" Derby contenders to dream about over the winter! I shall sleep well tonight thanks thinking about my Ante-post bets on "Black bear island"!
Dont spill your Horlicks!

You do realise that there are some races held at distances other than 6f and 12f, don’t you? I agree that the dam profile is not ideal for a Derby-type; however if he does not stay 12f then he does not automatically have to race at sprint distances. If the question is, will RVW be a sprinter (July Cup) or miler (Guineas), then his breeding profile strongly points to the latter.

"Looking back" is a daughter of a 6f Group1 winner "Stravinsky"
theres your speed influence from the Dam.

:sigh: Just because a stallion wins at a distance, does not mean that all his progeny will carry that propensity. Some stallions stamp their stock better than others; some transmit exaggerated or diminished versions of their own talent; others will not pass own their own characteristics but maybe that of their sire which skipped a generation. To examine a stallion’s impact on a pedigree you need to look not just at their own race record but the talents of their progeny. Saying that Stravinsky was a super-speedy racehorse means little. He has obviously not passed blinding speed directly to his daughter Looking Back, as she was unable to win over 5 or 6f. She won in pretty much the same distance range as her mother and one of her half-siblings, which suggests that Stravinsky did not have any kind of strong impact on her.

The story is different with Galileo. His progeny have nearly all shown a strong talent for staying distances even in excess of those that Galileo did himself – a typical Sadler’s Wells in fact. You would expect him to add stamina to most families.

If RVW was from a strongly speed influenced family, possibly with a dose of Habitat, maybe Galileo’s prepotency would be diluted (the best milers and speed horses by Sadler’s Wells tended to be with a Habitat cross). But he is not. What you are calling ‘speedy-types’ are generally milers – not exactly a disadvantage for the Guineas, and not ideal (when mixed with a strong stayer) for the July Cup.

Let’s assess RVW’s claims as a July Cup sprinter.
Sire = 10-12f top class performer, good influence for stamina (50% of pedigree)
Dam = Sprinter/miler, unable to win over 6f.
Damsire = Excellent sprinter, slightly disappointing sire (25%)
Granddam = miler, producer of miler. (25%).
Dam’s family = Middle-distance flat, or jumps.

So, basically, an awful lot rides on the concept that the slightly disappointing, not terrible prepotent, unproven broodmare sire Stravinsky (whose last winner in this country was incidentally over 11f) can transmit enough speed from his theoretical 25% to over-ride the theoretical 50% influence of super-sire Galileo, the milers influence of the dam and grandam, and the rather slow input from further back in the tail-female line. Good luck with that. I suggest it may be you who has made some Horlicks.

My thoughts exactly Sal…if only I were as clever and lucid.

There are variables and factors in racing coming out of your ears – breeding included. My point is, if you concentrate on one and one alone it’s a one-way ticket to the curb.

There is a speed influence in RVW but why not watch him race, watch how he races, look at conformation, and also integrate pedigree but not to such a degree where you think he will be a sprinter! Ludicrous, I say!

Just wondering sal,why you do see RVW has a guineas winner??

Apart from his illustrious sire, there”s little to get excited about in RVW’s pedigree, whose bottom line could almost be described as plebeian, with some less than awe-inspiring stallions knocking around the place.

The dam visited Galileo when his first crop were 2-y-os, always a difficult time for a stallion to fill, and if she’d tried to visit him a year or so later, she might have got turned away!

Having said all that, RVW looks like a horse that will be suited by 10f, with an outside chance of getting 12f. He certainly won’t be a sprinter.

I think that Rip Van Winkle will be a 3 yr old 10-12f colt, perhaps more towards 10f. I think he won’t win the derby but if he’s good enough, maybe he can win the Eclipse.

As for the Guineas, I like the look of Zacinto, I don’t think Dansili has sired any 8f G1 winners but maybe this May it could happen.