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I have thought from the day I watched the recordings of the horse he was the most likely of the OAB pair to improve enough to win.
Mastercraftsman just doesn’t look like he has enough toe or scope to win a guineas.
Delegator won ok but he beat sweet fanny adams and I am not convinced he’s anywhere as good as his trainer seems to think.
Nothing else appealed and I had already backed Crowded House, Rip Van Winkle was the obvious choice.
If he had not been withdrawn I probably wouldnt have bothered looking.
Do I think Rip Van Winkle is a good thing? no far from it but he might just be good enough in what looks like a poor guineas to me.
Do I think Rip Van Winkle is a good thing? no far from it but he might just be good enough in what looks like a poor guineas to me.
FIST, do you think George Washington and Henrythenavigators guineas were poor renewals?
Looking at the field that is lining up and the likely gd-fm I think the best way to bet this (for anyone who hasnt had a bet already) would be.
Lord Shanakill e/w @ 25-1
Ouqba e/w @ 22-1
Win Lay Mastercraftsman
Place Lay Finjaan
A couple of developments which are worth noting are the confirming of Sea The Stars and Gan Amhras, the removal of Intense Focus, and the addition of Ouqba .
Oxx has a decent recent record in this race and Sea The Stars should bhe primed for a place at least. Is a scary prospect, and although I’ll go against him, think he’s borderline value.
Gan Amhras was a dante/derby horse only a couple of weeks ago, and I suspect Bolger is trying the same tactic as he used with lush lashes last year, however that yeilded no classics, and I’m against him here despite liking for the derby. Intense Focus is a strange removal, but thats the risk you take when backing a bolger contender (which I did).
Ouqba ran last year in the 2yo race at the guineas meeting and a friend of mine who was there said that that race was fancied to work out very well, as many of the horses were highly touted. Ouqba IMO wasnt a hugely impressive 2yo but looked the sort to be better at 3yo, he won the free handicap, which IMO was an improvement on anything he done at 2yo. Barry Hills has subsequently talked owners into running him here at a cost of 30k, he’s in form, open to improvement for the step up to 1mile, has ground in his favour and could be a bet at 22-1.
This is the most exciting guineas in a few years IMO.
Just a formula that has never let me down in the guineas.
Danehill Dancer + gd-fm = unlikely to win
With Murtagh now going against him which makes him the lesser of an AOB raid that doesnt IMO look as strong as previous years. If anyone is a layer then at 9/2 (27/5 on betfair) I think he’s the best lay bet of the shorter prices. Just my opinion, but would be quite confident it should work.
Just a formula that has never let me down in the guineas.
Danehill Dancer + gd-fm = unlikely to win
With Murtagh now going against him which makes him the lesser of an AOB raid that doesnt IMO look as strong as previous years. If anyone is a layer then at 9/2 (27/5 on betfair) I think he’s the best lay bet of the shorter prices. Just my opinion, but would be quite confident it should work.
This Danehill dancer loves gd-frm = very likely to win, his official rating
confirms it! Agreed Johnny deserting him is a body blow, thats a massive boost for the Rip Van supporters! the best lay for me is Delegator!Couple long priced ones each way as so many doubts surround those at head of market.
Cityscape and Monitor Closely.
Cityscape ran on well in the Greenham and doesn’t need to improve too much to get involved.
Monitor Closely was just touched off in the big sales race at the craven meeting over 1m 2f. Not normal trial for a Guineas but he pulled like a train that day and was still only just beaten. He should have the pace for a mile and if he settles might run well.
Just a formula that has never let me down in the guineas.
Danehill Dancer + gd-fm = unlikely to win
You must have laid Monsieur Bond in the 03 guineas at 100/1 then,
"Where or Whens" 5 victorys all came on gd/frm ground too, and as for Choisir!! dont believe Danehill dancers progeny need cut!I didnt lay Monsieur Bond at100-1, but it would have been successful if I had he didnt even place same as where or when. Monsieur Bond’s best form however came with cut underfoot, and where or when’s gd-fm form was so in and out, that its hard to make a case for or against him.
There are exceptions to every rule in breeding (such as choisir), but I just go on what works most of the time, we’ll know on saturday whether it has worked out again on this occasion TATK.
FWIW I wouldnt disagree regarding delegator, the ground is gd-fm, and where he clearly goes well enough on it, as proven in the craven, he moves like he would like it just on the better side of good to show his very best. The faster pace of the guineas should see him improve on his craven run, but with the ground not 100% in his favour, I agree that his price is short. I personally have went for Mastercraftsman as a lay as I just believe he will be easier to beat on the day.
Either one of us could be wrong but I personally think this year has all the hallmarks of a shock result.
Bulwark,
I’m with you on every selection there other than Mastercraftsman. I think Lord Shanakill is a great bet EW
All the best with the lays though
Finjann is a very good place lay IMO. I’m not a layer thoughBulwark,
I’m with you on every selection there other than Mastercraftsman. I think Lord Shanakill is a great bet EW
All the best with the lays though
Finjann is a very good place lay IMO. I’m not a layer thoughI’m not a layer either HWTH, was just giving advice on how I currently see the markets. personally I prefer to bet against horses rather than lay them.
Ref: Mastercraftsman, I put him up on here on his debut, but have always been against him in the guineas picture as always go against Danehill Dancers on gd-fm, and always antepost the guineas for gd-fm. So a Danehill Dancer is there to be shot at for me, with the ground coming up gd-fm and Murtagh then opting against him (for another horse who I’m not to sure about either), I fancy him to get turned over most out of the short priced runners. I was more thinking of Finjaan for the place lay and then thought, I’ll have to look at a win lay aswell, and Mastercraftsman, being the one Ive always been against, is the obvious one for a win lay IMO.
Thats not to say he wont win, he does have 2 group1 wins and plenty appear to fancy him, he’s just the one I least fancy to win out of the single figured contenders..
Would also like to say that I am made up to see my two favorite jockeys having rides in the guineas (Steve Drowne and Jim Crowley), these two dont get enough big race rides IMO, as Drowne proved at royal ascot last year. Hopefully he is on the road to becoming the Abdulla No.1 jock.
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The defection of Spring of Fame is somewhat annoying, but I’m still holding bets on Ashram and Sea The Stars at 33/1 (see earlier post). I’m happy with that.
Bulwark,
Everytime Steve Drowne gets a decent ride I think back to what happened with him with Clowance in the Oaks last year.
Getting jocked off like that for ‘not having a great record in group 1s’ was a poor excuse to jock off a decent jockey like Drowne.
Crowley has been riding fantastic over the last few weeks, maybe Saturday will be the peak of it all!
If I had to lay anything on Saturday for a win though it’d be Sea The Stars who looks more like a Derby horse to me.
Everytime Steve Drowne gets a decent ride I think back to what happened with him with Clowance in the Oaks last year.
Getting jocked off like that for ‘not having a great record in group 1s’ was a poor excuse to jock off a decent jockey like Drowne.
Crowley has been riding fantastic over the last few weeks, maybe Saturday will be the peak of it all!
If I had to lay anything on Saturday for a win though it’d be Sea The Stars who looks more like a Derby horse to me.
I took a liking for Jim Crowley when he was riding for Amanda Perret in 2007, and noticed he was putting in some decent rides back then, then last year he obviously rode Bulwark to win the Chester Cup, where he came through the entire field with a brilliant ride (turned out Crowley also talked Dr Koukash into buying him from Hesmonds Stud with the Chester Cup in mind).
Then noticed him last season on the outsiders where he was just timing some of them to perfection. Came to the conclusion that he is a top class jockey last season, and think if he is on anything I’ve backed I’m more confident in their chance. Ive never noticed him to be out of form personally, and IMO if a horse has a chance he’ll have it there.
Would absolutely love to see Crowley win the guineas on Lord Shanakill on saturday.
Drowne IMO very seldom ever puts in a bad ride and some of his are just plain brilliant. Last year at ascot for example, not only did he pull in a 100-1 outsider, but his front running ride on supaseus was brilliant IMO, and his ride on fifteen love was perfect. Not many horses were winning from off the pace on the straight track at ascot up until that point, but he judged the pace and his position brilliantly, knew how much horse he had under and got FL up there. I’d done FL at 40-1 that day so was watching thinking "oh no" when drowne elected to hold up Fifteen Love, because horses just werent winning from that far back (as the surface was very quick and those prominent werent slowing), but shouldnt have doubted him for a second. I agree about Clowance thought that was piss poor judgement by the owners.
Ref: Sea The Stars – I had originally had him down as a derby horse (had it in my head that he was an exact brother to galileo, however he is only half, and the other is Cape Cross). I think he’ll be a 1m2f horse and they have a good record in the guineas, and Cape Cross’s tend to go well enough on gd-fm. The main point to note with him is John Oxx bringing him over, he is usually quite shrewd over who he travels with. Azamour was 3rd in this race in 2004 and Arch Swing was 2nd in Finsceal Beo’s 1,000. Cant think of any other recent runners he’s had. Remember at Royal Ascot a few seasons ago he brought over 2 runners, both won.
This is the most exciting guineas in a few years IMO.
Contrary to that, I just cannot get enthused by this race at all.
No Dewhurst or Prix Jean-Luc winner – and the O’Brien mob are just … there. The best of what appears to be only an average crop.
How many 2,000 Guineas winners were favourite based almost solely on winning the Craven (a la Adagio)?
This race screams for an upset, and the best of those appear to be Lord Shanakill & Ashram.
Finjann is a very good place lay IMO. I’m not a layer though
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