1000 Guineas 2018

Degaussed – Where is that 40s on the double offer please?

Bet365.

I wasn’t talking to, or about Hein Bollow at all.

This is a thread open for opinion. It’s not like a phone call or PMing one another.

As I say, wasn’t talking to or about Hein at all and will be refraining from doing so at all for the sake of the forum.

Don’t like reading my posts? Don’t read them! It’s very simple and good advice.

I actually researched the distances run as 2YO’s to offer encouragement that the 6F maximum in the first season need not be an impasse to Guineas glory at three.

The stats are what they are, if people want to declare they have no relevance then so be it. It reeks of hubris though.

Two more meetings abandoned today and soft ground throws up more surprises in general than any other factor.

Clemmie is in the Oaks betting but it’s a big ask for a filly who ran over 6F only at two, to then excel in an Oaks at double the distance. In Minding’s year, she was 8/1 for the Guineas/Oaks double and I invested in that bet. Clemmie though, is 20/1 just for the Oaks so there’s a general acceptance that she doesn’t have the assured stamina and that could easily become a concern if it is testing on Guineas day.

Who “reeks of hubris”, Steve?
Your statistics would be very very relevent with almost every other filly; just not Clemmie. It was you who mentioned Clemmie in your post which was why I responded. It’s really no big deal; just one filly I say the stats aren’t relevent for… and you throw your toys out of the pram… again.

Reasons for the stats not (in my opinion) being relevent for Clemmie:
A) Normally horses are raced at the distance best suited to the individual horse, but there was nothing “normal” about this situation.
B) O’Brien had an abundance of staying two year old fillies that could win 7f and mile Group 1’s, am sure if he hadn’t had that “abundance” Clemmie would have been stepped up to 7f or a mile at two.
C) O’Brien was going for the World Record of Group 1’s, so it doubley important to shuffle the pack wisely and…
D) O’Brien had no other filly thought capable of winning the 6f fillies Group 1.
E) The way Clemmie runs at 6f – settles well and finishes the race off by staying on rather than brilliant sprint speed – strongly suggests she’ll stay further…
F) Breeding suggests she’ll be better as a miler.

Bred to be a miler, not a 12 furlong horse. Clemmie is “20/1” for the Oaks for very good reason – she won’t run. With September, Happily, Magical and many lightly raced middle-distance bred fillies better suited by the Epsom classic. Minding was always far more likely than Clemmie to go that route, so the comparisson is a false one. Team Coolmore block enter and cater for every eventuallity. I remember seeing St Leger winner Brian Boru entered in the Lockinge, for goodness sake it’s just what team Coolmore do. Yes, we all know Clemmie won’t turn up there, especially as the trainer has told us so in no uncertain terms. LOL

As I said, yes, we agree that if conditions placed an emphasis on stamina at Newmarket (Soft/Heavy) then Clemmie may well struggle. But there’s almost a month to go yet before the Guineas (a week later than it can be) and plenty of time yet for the weather to change. With normal May conditions (anything from good-firm to good-soft) I don’t envisage a problem.

Yes, if soft/heavy then 3/1 won’t be that great, but in the usual/normal conditions I wouldn’t be surprised to see her start more like 6/4, which imo makes her great value @ 3/1.
Yes, those of us on at bigger prices ante-post are very happy at the moment, I just wouldn’t put anyone off taking the 3/1. Of course Steve, you are entitled to disagree; just as I am surely entitled to disagree with you?

Jeepers. Some people on the forum have 33/1 on Clemmie, yet 3/1 is great value.

Of course we all wish we had the 33/1. But without a tardis punters are unable to go back in time to back a horse. Way back when Clemmie was 33/1 for the Guineas she had not yet shown the form we now know her capable of and had yet to show the potential too. What’s more, there were many other rivals – both outside and inside the stable – that at that moment could’ve gone on to show themselves better than her. Nobody at that time would’ve backed Clemmie at 3/1. Hate to break it to you, Steve; but judging current value can not be judged on what we only knew 10 months ago.

How much “value” in the current price of 3/1 can only be judged with all known current form of both Clemmie and (just as importantly) that of her rivals. ie In this moment does she have a better or worse than a fair 3/1 (25%) chance of winning? imo Clemmie currently has a 33% chance (a fair 2/1). So assessing the horse at 2/1 and allowing for a margin for error… If I was not already on would be looking for 5/2 or more. ie To back Clemmie at the current price I’d want anything upwards of 3% better than my assessment, the current price is 8% better – which is why I call it “great value”.

Thank you Jac, you are right about my feelings for this horse, cos maybe similar to you, racing is much more than maths and calculations to me!
You are also right that we talked a bit much about Clemmie and that there are lots of other good horses scheduled here.
You’re a wonderful person and a great racing expert, particularly when it comes to your homebase Newmarket,
but that one of these horses steals the race, I hope you are exceptionally not right .

wouldn’t overly worry about the ‘non prep’ plenty of O’Brien’s main ones go that route and in a way it shows he thinks shes fit enough at this stage to do herself justice. I’d imagine the ones he gives a run to are those not showing enough at home or need a lot of work to get ready although that’s just a hunch. One thing he will say though if she loses is blame himself for not doing enough work with her, that was the excuse with Air Force Blue I think, if I remember rightly.

Non preps aren’t always a good sign for Obrien fillies with the 1000G involved.

Rhododredren 5/4f beaten last year
Minding won the year before- amazing horse.
Tapestry 2014- fav and no prep= beat
Homecoming Queen beat fav Maybe(reappearance) at 25/1.

Just because horses are favourite doesn’t mean they should’ve won, Jack. When a horse is beaten due to not being fit enough it is evident by subsequent events.

1000 Guineas winner Winter had had a run prior to the Guineas, but subsequently proved a better miler than Rhododendron – ie Rhod’ going there without a prep made no difference to the result.
Tapestry finished last at Newmarket, clearly something amiss and nothing to do with her non-prep. Subsequently needed 12f to find her form anyway. ie After a 6th in the Coronation Stakes she was a good 2nd in Irish Oaks, then winning the Yorkshire Oaks before disappointing again back at a mile in the Matron.
Maybe was a really good two year old, but her final run at two was in the Moyglare in August. Had she been injured? Not the usual gap from two to three. Fact Maybe never recaptured her two year old form in three subsequent starts going some way to confirm Guineas failure due to not being the same filly at three. Again, nothing to do with it being her first run of the season.

So no O’Brien filly has been beaten in the Guineas due to “non preps”.

It may have been the “excuse” O’Brien came out with for Air Force Blue. But despite the fact he was a top class two year old – and an impressive winner of the Dewhurst on his final start – connections put a first time tongue tie on the horse for the Guineas. Finishing 12th of 13, nothing to do with being unfit. Again failed in three subsequent starts, 6th of 7, 12th of 18 and last of 7. If Clemmie runs with a tongue tie I’ll be laying off my bet!

Ginge, all true, but as previous results sit, you are better off with one of Obriens fillies that has had a run.

Rhododendrom and Tapestry subsequently found out 1mile wasn’t their ideal trip, it’s quite possible Clemmie will find this out too. For all the breeding suggests otherwise, i can’t help but think a prep would be preferable for a horse only raced over 6f.

Mind you, the way the ground is at the moment, that would be a possible reason to forget about a prep altogether..

Thank you very much Jac for your great gesture, that’s the way I know and like you!
Enjoy your Craven and shout the Lion home

Currently the forecasts show lots of dry air for Newmarket, and if it really pans out like that,
the ground would finally be crisp on the big day

Thank you Ginger, you always write very precisely, and of course I very much enjoyed the contents of your post

I had backed Air Force Blue at various rates ante-post for the Guineas. My heart sank when I heard they were fitting a tongue-tie for Newmarket.

Of course he flopped on the day and although I had a bet on Galileo Gold at 40/1, it was way less than I would have won had Air Force Blue won.

In the end O’Brien gave the excuse that he had given Air Force Blue TOO MUCH work leading up to the Guineas and also reckoned that the tongue tie had probably had a negative effect when combined to the cross noseband, musing that it had over-curbed the colt’s natural enthusiasm. Of course this statement didn’t stop pundits tipping Air Force Blue up for the Irish Guineas, giving the reason that he “Needed” his first race of the season.

Air Force Blue went to the Irish 2000 Guineas with the tongue tie left off, and some pundits tipped him to bounce back but I felt he was simply a horse who had not trained on. He flopped again and this time it was suspected that he was simply a sprinter. Tried without the tongue tie again, he was 12th to Limato in the July Cup.

Perhaps surprisingly, Air Force Blue went off Evens Fav for the Group 3 Phoenix Sprint, where the tongue tie was stuck on again. He ran like a drain, last of the 7 runners and beaten 18 lengths.

Looking back, I suspect they were never happy with Air Force Blue in his second season. That would explain why they gave him more work than normal, in the hope that he might find his mojo. It probably never worked and the tongue tie was a last ditch hope of working the oracle.