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Coordinated Cut is a place lay for me. The form of his maiden last year was dire, he was dire in the Racing Post Trophy and the form of his Conditions win has been utterly abysmal.
I’d look towards Chabal as the winner. I’ll check the record of once-raced horses in the Dante but I imagine it’s poor.
Why is Coordinated Cut a place lay for you?
I’m going for Coordinated Cut. Was reasonably impressed with his effort first time out this year and it looks very much like he will be one of the few horses who will appreciate the trip at epsom on decent ground. He was reasonably well hyped last year by peter chapple hyam and I respect what he tends to say about youngsters, he’s had a few good ones in his time. Not sure what the plan for him is at the moment in terms of trials but will be interested to see how he gets on.
I’d tend to agree MC is the best horse in the race and I think he will be winning group 1’s over 1m 4 in the future. Im not sure he did stay the trip he was running all over the shop in the last 100 yards signs of a very tired horse imo.
i dont know why people are using harbinger as the main form guide for the voltigeur. His form if anything was suspect. He won a maiden albeit nicely from COTG who would be running over a trip that was way too short. He has then won a mickey mouse gordon stakes at goodwood where the pace was muddling and everything else that has run since barring firebet has been disappointing. Is it now possible he just wasnt good enough.
If you look through Mastery and Father time and Jukebox Jury the form is solid. Cecil has said about father time letting himself down on the ground but surely if that is the case why on earth would they run saturday when the ground looks like it will be just as quick.
Personally think Mourayan if turns up will run a big race at the prices and COTG could be very unexposed.It will be interesting to see what the reactions of the bookmakers is today if Urban Poet wins the listed race at Goodwood today.
It’s sure to be a true test of stamina with Free Agent in the race and if Urban Poet were to win very impressively it would at least tell us he’s guaranteed to get the Leger trip.
The bookies of course would slash his price to the bone and Franke could be telling us he’ll make his mind up nearer the time which one he rides.
The race/market may be a bit of a mess at the moment but it could be worse after today
……….or not
Cant see any of the entries at the moment winning this they are all out and out stayers imo and the leger usually goes to a horse with a bit of speed and turn of foot. If they run either Manifest or Monitor Closely i will be steaming in as they also imo have room for improvement. Manifest cos of the amount of runs and Monitor Closely because he has been running over trips completely wrong for him. Both sets of connections should see the opportunity imo
this race looks like it is going to cut up pretty badly with the ground and the number of obrien runners that wont turn up. could end up with just 8 runners.
in the ground going to need something that gets more than a mile. looking through the entries see monitor closely is in there again. Im guessing he wont turn up as will be his 4th race in almost as many weeks but if he did he has form on the ground last year and will defo stay the distance 25/1 might be big come 3.50pm saturday afternoon.Horses from the Dante
Black Bear Island – This horse was seriously hyped after the curragh gallops at the beginning of the year and but for his considered substandard run in France would have been 2nd fave for this race and Murtagh would have been on board. Bearing in mind how easy Murtagh was in France I am surprised people are crabbing him as the dante winner. A half brother to High Chapparal he will love the step up in trip and come Epsom he wont be far behind FAG.
Freemantle – Ran a blinder for a first race and the first half of the race was seriously quick. Even after this when challenged he still found more which is a hell of an effort. I suspect he wont go to Epsom as they may save him for the Irish equivalent as the tracks are very similar and they have Golden Sword to make the pace at Epsom who has proved himself on a similar track at Chester.
Sans Frontierres – Eye-catching the way he was finishing and I suspect we may well have seen the St Leger winner. He is bred impeccably for that race and believe he will be seen next at Royal Ascot.
Monitor Closely – A real conundrum of a horse. First off the bridle but then came with a good looking run to flatten out and then run on again. Everytime pace is injected into a race he gets caught which suggests to me he needs a step up in trip to 1m 4 but only on a flat track. I also think a stronger jockey on board and this horse with the combined step up in trip and diff jockey may improve 3+ lengths. He could surprise in the Irish Derby.
Kite Wood – May have needed the race after such a long lay off but cant see him overturning the form with any of these in the derby. Will pick up one or two races but 6m more down the drain from Godolphin.
Native Ruler – Best looking horse in the field. Will benefit greatly for a substantial step up in trip. Another St Ledger type and wouldnt surprise to turn into serious Gold Cup horse in the next 2 years.
Crowded House – Run to bad to be true even allowing for the RP trophy to have been a weak affair the time he posted that day was exceptional and there is no way Meehan could be so wrong about him being a middle distance horse. The dirty scope would suggest excuses are available and if that is the case and he gets over it in time 16/1 may look very big come Derby Day. The derby will be a classic this year and CH may be another to break another racing rule in you don’t win the dante you don’t win the derby.
I’m backing Monitor Closely in this race. At first read this may sound entirely insane to a few but I think there are a few very valid reasons why he will win this race.
Firstly his form ties in closely ( no pun intended) with 3 of the horses at the front of the betting in Kite Wood, CH and Neeham. On debut last year he ran third to Kite Wood over a mile in soft. He looked extremely green that day and was running on again with Kite Wood having to be pushed out rather vigorously IMO (golden sword back in 5th). So with improvement from first run to second he would have pushed Kite Wood in the Autumn stakes if he had contested it. He then ran behind CH in the tatts millions stepping back in trip which must have been a major negative for such a big strong horse. he finished 3 lengths behind being stopped in his run twice and running green. Arguably he should have finished 3rd in possibly the best 2 year old race of the year.
First time out this season he finished a head behind Neeham in the tatts trophy over 10f running green and coming late. There is an argument that Neeham will improve more from the race than MC but I was there that day and to say he was badly in need of the run was an understatement. Having looked through the speed ratings of that race as well I would say only the 2000 guineas has produced quicker 3 year old ratings this year. The time as well outshines Redwood’s efforts on the same card over a similar distance.
At 25/1 with Stan James I believe he is massive standout value and may just spring a shock.
