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I’m probably best off out of the ‘should a Derby/Arc winner stay in training’ discussion as a 3 year old having a Classic season & then going straight off to stud is one of the things I truly cannot stand about flat racing.
To my eyes, a three year old is still a baby & it seems a shame that we often never know how they would’ve developed.As much as I agree that having a great horse sent off to perform as a stud at the early stages of his career is somewhat of a waste, if all potential studs stayed on track for 5 years and more, where would breeders find good gene pools to work with? Imagine yourself Workforce landing a horrible performance next year, losing his value, costing his owner more than he bargained for and completely abolishing his chance to become a stud horse.
Does it make it a ‘great ride’ just because he won? A couple of races later on Nouriya he got himself into a similarly poor position and didn’t get so lucky.
Seems as if your adopting the non conformist standpoint, looking for someway to diminish Moore’s achievements merely because he’s successful. Elements of luck are inseparable from horse racing but as few here already mentioned, seizing opportunities as they occur in the race is what separates great jockeys from mediocre ones.
It appears as if Casamento has the better odds on his side and should win but there is another horse to look at besides Casamento and that is Factum. Not saying which of the two will win but merely stating the fact that Factum has an even chance against Casamento. If they are equal in form and racing experience, all that is left is to look at the trainer’s stats and realize that O’brien is a factor that might promote Factum to victory.
I honestly believe Workforce was a mugs bet for the Derby. On what form did he justify being less than 16s that day? I know it looked a poor field but all you had to go on was victory in a 2yo race and a defeat in the Dante. He had probable progression and the identity of his trainer on his side – plus reams of newsprint about his exceptional work. But that’s the sort of profile you see on Classic pretenders all the time – and I suppose even a stopped clock is right twice a day.
I think you answered your own question just before you asked it.
The horse got his chance to form only recently so it is a bit awkward comparing it to dysfunctional clock. However, I do believe he has very little chance to win the race and not because he’s incompetent but because he’s due to compete horses that have beaten him before, like Cape Blanco and Harbinger and other much stronger and experienced horses like Rewilding and Midday the latter being my choice btw. Anyhow, a decision over Workforce’s participation in the race is yet to be made, so we’ll just have to wait and see, but as an inexperienced horse surrounded by giants I have zero faith in him whatsoever.
TAPK
Who is your one tip in this race just 1 tip you have got
I’m no where near the level of TAPK but here’s a tip: Don’t go tilting. Another tip is Victoire De Lyphar, leave Redford aside, he will only break your heart
tesport Cesarewitch – 16/10/2010
I’ve taken the 33/1 ahead of his run at Yarmouth this afternoon; I’ll be interested to see how he fares against Red Cadeaux.
I wish you the best of luck with that one, he doesn’t strike me like the horse for this race. With a low win rate and even his seconds at no more than 1m4f I find it hard to believe he’ll manage, also Fist mentioned My Arch that will defiantly outrun him. I hope he runs well this afternoon, either way I’m sure you’ll have your insights for the upcoming Ces.
I’ve been looking at Hawk Mountain and Deauville Flyer and they both seem to me as having the same chances, but Deauville Flyer Proved himself at york over 2m and I agree he looks a bit more straightforward and moreover he has this ratio pattern of 3 bad races against a win and if he is not due to race before the 16th of Oct, perhaps this mysterious pattern is something to look at.
For me, I go with Admiral Barry, his last 4 months were phenomenal, and testify over his improvement due to a different training system. He seems to me as one that will get either of three places, hopefully the win one.
Very impressive indeed, highly informative well designed sites. It’s good to learn more about the trainers’ agenda and personal life rather than just having their comments and a few mentioning on the news.
Yeah but were reasons why Steinbeck got beat twice by CC in Ireland it was his 1st run. and at Ascot the pacemaker missed the break which meant Steinbeck was in front. now he is back in form i think he can win it
So what would be the reason this time? Ascot course plus Canford makes kind of a deja vu for poor Steinbeck. He seems to be in form, I’ll give you that, but I’m not confident he is up for it.
Realistically although Rip Van Winkle is a miler 100% IMVHO he’s not in the same league as Canford Cliffs these days.
Whether he’ll turn up or not is open to debate but it wouldn’t surprise me one bit if he missed it.
He’s tended to get a bit outpaced of late as we saw at York. He took a long time to get going and if he does that against Canford Cliffs Murtagh won’t see the way Hughsie went.
With Makfi you can put his defeat of Goldikova down to pure brilliance on his part or an off day on hers.
Both he and Canford Cliffs can be made excuses for. Canford Cliffs was slow to come to himself and wasn’t 100% in the Guineas and Makfi had a snotty nose or something when he got stuffed in the St James Palcae Stakes.
Make no mistake there was no fluke about Makfi’s win in France. Soumillon was so confident that when Hughsie had gone for Paco Boy he sat motionless for about 5 strides without losing any ground and when he did say go the result was never in doubt.
I’m usually very Confident when Canford Cliffs goes to post but this is very much a 2 horse race between 2 very good horses and I don’t mean Canford Cliffs and Rip Van Winkle. Makfi is a huge danger to Canford Cliffs.
Canford Cliffs is a league above Paco Boy so Makfi won’t find him as easy to beat but if the Ground Comes up very soft he’s not going to be 7/2 or anything like it.
The perfect scenario would be for all 3 to turn up 100% spot on and it could be one of the best mile races seen in years. Doubt if we’ll ever see the best of Rip again though. He’s had way too may tough races at the wrong trips.
My idea of the result would be:-
1. Canford Cliffs
2. Makfi
3. AOB1/2 length 2 1/2 lengths..
Great summery! concise and insightful.
Makfi does better on soft to very soft so case of good to soft and above might exclude him as a threat to Canford leaving the latter a strong fav. Can’t place any other as worthy to Canford, even Steinback, who is currently strong and in form, is not an easy choice for the task having been beaten at least twice by Canford.Genki
would be my number 1 choice if pushed
Genki came 11th at last year’s race and looks as if he suffers performance at races with a large number of runners. What do you reckon?
No sympathy from me I’m afraid. Can’t be having horses costing punters millions and allowing them to race/not.
Surely the horse and trainer can manage without your sympathy.
A horse costing punters money comes in various occasions and correct me if I’m wrong but isn’t that what ante-post is all about? You can have a horse being pulled out for no reason or relocated to a different race and still you don’t hear punters demanding to hang the trainer and turn the horse into dog food.
A horse’s refusal to race is a serious business. Can’t blame Bell for trying to give it one more go.As I always go about ruling out the false favorite, Midday is out of the equation. Between Sariska and Sarafina, Sarafina takes the spot of the obvious between the two as more competent on soft grounds. I’d actually go with Sariska if it wasn’t for her last race refusal to participate.
She was run in several races of 12 or more runners , of the last four of these she won three including two at The Curragh and was 5th in the other….The Melbourne Cup (27 ran) beaten under 3 lengths
Thanks for clearing that up for me, I obviously got it all wrong, but I still think he will run them both.
As far as odds, my money is on Rite.If they both show up on decent ground it certainly looks a Dermot Weld 1-2 with Profound Beauty the obvious pick of the two
Unlike Rite, Profound never raced more than 8 runners, which might have a negative affect. Rite also beats her odds, and obviously holds an advantage over her. still I assume both of them to run the race.
