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EC, you have summed why I ditched collateral form and moved on to time/speed analysis for a few years and these are now also ditched.
Early last year I moved to a stats based method combined with a completely different way of placing a value of a past form.
What I enjoy now is a completely different view of races and the average odds of my bets is now around 10/1. Last year was my best ever with a profit of 190 points to level stakes.
The trainer was interviewed on course before racing and he was quite negative about Nimello’s chances. <br> <br>This horse was not off and I’m certain the connections knew this and that is why it was in a claimer. It also explains the exchange activity and the performance. The connections should be investigateted for running a horse they probably knew would break down in the race. On the grounds of cruelty to animals this was a bad example and the trainer should be asked to explain the circumstances leading to the run.
There was only one horse ready and fit for this race and anyone could easily see this in the paddock.
W.
Nimello was "not off". I was at Musselburgh and there was only one runner in the "race". I don’t normally bet short prices less than (5/2) but had a mximum on this one at 7/4.
W.
Totally agree with comments about Ayr. Its gone downhill so quickly over the last few years, I need a special reason to go there. The management is totally incompetent and we can only hope for an improvement when the sale is completed.
The fiasco at the Boxing day meeting last year when they called the meeting off late, was a farce, when it was so obvious to anyone who travelled to the meeting there was no chance of racing. A grade one course that only has a “race dayâ€ÂÂ
Apracing, don’t go telling everyone the trade secrets :cool: . We need punters for the 5/4 shots in low grade handicaps to provide easy pickings.
There are non tries in virtually every race, every day and part of the challenge in this game is to try and second guess the tacticts. Assessing races from a sound basis of form and stats and then reading the market and the trainers previous ploys pays huge dividends. Trainers are creatures of habit and often their plans for landing a touch can be clearly sussed.
I have a connection with one of the most successful jumps yards and track the performances of all runners. After a few years it is easy to build a picture of how the trainer places and prepares certain type of horse. The best novice hurdlers are always started off at gaff tracks and often finish the season with a number of wins and steady improvement of up 20 to 30 pounds.
W.
Many thanks to all for the constructive replys. I really do think assessing your performance in LSP terms is important and helps to keep things in perspective especially when comparing returns over a number of years.
I have been punting seriously for many years and professionally for the last three years. During the last year I have drastically reduced the number of bets and increased my stakes. I don’t set firm targets but, if I show a profit of 2 LS points per week I’m very happy. My current point is £300. I now virtually bet level stakes and have eliminated the eratic staking of old.
W.
Interesting to see how virtually everyone asseses their performance on percentages of turnover. I bet virtually level stakes thouhout the course of a season and monitor my profit in level stake units.
When all tipping services quote results to their own staking, it becomes impossible to accurately compare performance. The true level stakes approach is an acid test of profit and I am interested to see how I compare to others on here.
jasonr, if you have had 1712 bets this year and produced a profit of 4.8%, could you calculate your LSP using the average method??
<br>Ian, I think I know your friend. Without mentioning names is he one of the tallest punters in the ring and concentrates on NH?? I spoke to this guy at a meeting last year when after the second race he had turned over £6k for £25 profit!!! He was having a poor day.
Alsoran & JW
The first horse I landed a gamble with won on his first race for us. I knew it was fit and ready to win and was also well handicapped. It fell in its last race for the previous owner when well bet and I stepped in to claim it. All I had to do with this one was move it to a unfashionable trainer and enter it in a very weak handicap hurdle.
The younger and less exposed a horse is the more time it usually takes to work out what is required. I have been involved with 2 & 3 y-o’s with generally with dissapointing outcomes. My preference is definately to stick to handicap hurdles. The opposition can usually be assessed accurately and I find in longer races genuine form has a much better chance of working out providing, you know for certain your horse stays the trip.
Looking for the right race is everything. As someone once said "keep you money in the best company and your horses in the worst" Low grade handicap hurdles are the best races for me. I want to feel confident my horse has at least a stone in hand when aiming for a bet.
I try and avoid making a last minute change of plan. In jump racing the only factor than can change things is lots of overnight rain and if you have a decent ground horse its OK to pull it out. I also do not believe in letting the jockey the money is down until he is in the saddle. They all have their friends putting money on.
I must stress, I never ask a jockey or trainer to break the rules. All my horses run within the rules.
W.
Hi Alsorun
There is no cover all answer for your question on who selects the races to enter.  A lot of owners leave everything to the trainer and hope for the best.  Personally, I take the exact opposite view and do the placing myself and rely on the trainer to do his primary job and prepare the horse physically.
Its very time consuming business to prepare a campaign for a horse, especially when you are still finding out what the horse requires by way of trip, ground, racing style etc.  In this electronic age, we have to thumb through the pages of the Program Book looking for races.
I run my horses with the specific objective of each of them (currently 4) winning one race per year, when the money is down big time.  Within the last year this has worked out well with one horse winning at 12/1, which has more than covered the losses on another two big losing bets when the horses finished second.
As soon as I think the horse is fully exposed and cannot be setup for a punt I sell them on even though they may still be quite well handicapped.  Holding on to horses long term is not for me.  The longer you have them the more they cost and the increased chance of a serious injury is always present.
W.
(Edited by Wallace at 12:21 pm on Oct. 17, 2002)
Another bent race. Elusive City’s first race at Lingfield was another race that was definately bent. Most of the jockey’s in the weighing room that day were on the winner.
Going back to the initial post of this thread about horses being tried over theie corret distance. I can tell you for certain that a new handicap system wil be introduced with race distance bands. The current proposal being considered is to have bands like 5f-6f, 7f-8f, 9f-11f etc.
Apracing’s question is indeed the crucial point in discussing if racing is bent. If you do believe its bent then you are a mug punter if you continue to bet blind.
My own opinion is that racing is bent and from first hand experience I know it is. Now, I try to only bet when I have very good grounds for thinking I’m betting a trier and that I’m reasonably certain the opposition are fully exposed and their best form can be assessed.
I have seen too many cases over the last year of bent races and been able to profit from my information. The worst case by far took place at Wolverhampton early this year when a short priced favourite in a poor claiming race was matched on BF for £110k in the win market and £15k in the place market. It finished 4th after a slow start and a bit of deliberate trouble in running. I knew of the plan for this horse two weeks before the race and laid it to my maximum at the time of £5k. This horse had a flat-out gallop over about 2 miles on the morning of the race. It was owned by a bookmaker.
Another experience I saw first had was when one of the biggest jockeys in the country, paid a rare visit to a gaff track up north. He had three bets that day, two on his own mounts and another on a 12/1 chance in a race where he was riding the favourite! The 12/1 chance finished second and the favourite found trouble in running and finished unplaced.
The game is bent at all levels.
Buffham and Phipps were both shown to be the right people for the job and that the JC executive totally lack to bottle to act. Buffham was constructivly dismissed by the JC on a trumpted up charge.
The corruption in racing is still widespread and the JC could easily find enough evidence to warn off a few high profile people. I know of two bookmakers a handful of trainers and jockeys pulling illegal strokes every week. One high profile on-course bookie should be the first to go.
AP’s opening post is certainly a well presented statement of the exchange activity. However, there have been a few cases where I know for certain about a short priced favourite being layed and stopped. One of these was indeed at Wolverhampton at a mid week meeting in the winter. £110,000 was matched on a short priced favourite in a steady stream of bets from the night before right up to the time of the off. The crooks were also very greedy in laying it to the tune of £15,000 in the place market! The horse finished a hard ridden 4th. Owned by a bookmaker, trained by a crook and ridden by a jockey who makes more money from losers than winners!
I believe there is a small number of these cases maybe 10 per year but enough for all punters to be on the look out for unusual activity.
Punters should also be on the look out for another scam on the exchanges where connections want people to think there has been a lot of activity on a particular horse. This is done by betting and laying a horse as all bets are recorded as normal matches without any funds moving. I tested this theory a few months ago when I placed and layed a number of bets on an unraced horse which I knew had absolutely no chance of winning or even being bet by cinnections. By placing these fantom bets at prices from 33/1 down to 8/1 during the night, this horse opened on course at 8/1 before drifting to 10/1 at the off and then pulling up.
There are two significant things I think will happen in the UK exchange market.
1. The big three bookmakers will combine to form a real competitor to Betfair and provide a huge level of liquidty from day one from their own funds.
2. Attheraces will merge with BF or the new competitor and ditch its ill fated link with the Tote. If the live prices were broadcast on ATR during racing the attraction is obvious.
