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I’m almost a professional gambler but I don’t like gambling. I earn a decent living from trading on Betfair solely on horse racing.
Using my own dveloped tools to predict how the mass market will take a view on a particular horse is a very satisfying and profitable activity. Back em in the morning and lay them close to the off and be over for around 15% to 20% beats punting every day.
Think you should give this tipping game a miss EC. It clearly ain’t for you.
Going out on a limb posting tips (for money or ego points) imposes huge distractions on reasoned decision making and ends in tears for most.
A few years ago I had the pleasure of “doing evening stablesâ€ÂÂ
I think Jonjo is a much overrated trainer based on his riding career. (A bit like top hurdler going chasing!) Virtually any competent trainer can win modest races with expensive horses, L Lungo a prime example.
The real test for a big name yard is in winning top class races on a regular basis and giving their wealthy owners a lot of success at big meetings. There are about ten lesser known trainers on my list of candidates from my next horse and none of these are anywhere near the top of the prize money lists.<br>
Artmis, A few questions;
What do you mean by Bath (RH)?
Raceform use Median Times are these adjusted to 9st or 10st?
Do Raceform work on a scale of 0 to 100 for their speed figs?
Can any of the speed figure gurus on here outline their basic method?
So you have different standards for different class of race?
Are standard times based on 3-y-o’s performances in handicap races?
What is the scale 0 to 100? or 0 to 140?
Do you allow for actual weight carried compared to a standard at 9-00?
How do you apply the WFA table?
If three races on same day at same course (say 6f races, Nottingham, good ground in June) were won by a 2-y-o, 3-y-o and a 4 y-o in same times of 1min 15 sec, what would SF’s be for each.
Remember you always get extra marks for showing your working :)
Artemis, yes poor liquidity is restricting opportunities and things seem to be getting worse. I tried to get at total of £800 on Goldhill Prince at rates from 16.0 to 24.0 overnight and ended up with £292 at average odds of 19.7. Still a good trade but not for much in this global market. Interesting the well known service published ratings at 9:30am and this horse was also top rated with them
Going Assessment; EC, I do a very similar thing to you in arriving at my own estimation of the going allowance for every meeting. We have built a module on our system which automatically calls up the relevant course/track/distance data with the forecast going and the actual GA based on the past meetings. A few minutes work watching the first race every day does pay off.
I have considered setting up a network of people to cover all courses in the country to take going measurements using a going stick and also to measure actual race distances when it’s obvious the running rails have been moved. Relaying this back to a web site. This may still happen but I wont be spamming the service on here!<br>
Artemis, you are correct, adding market data into the model is currently being tested.
We are capturing exchange data at three time slots prior to the off using the Betfair API. One problem we have seen with this is the distribution of money matched on individual horses on Betfair is far from what you would expect. Its quite common to see a 3/1 favourite with around 70% of the total matched. This is due to the large proportion of arbing and trading done at the front-end of the market.
There is still scope for good old fashioned judgement when setting odds and as I have been compiling tissue odds for years, its hard to give this up!
With good opportinities for trading on BF I have moved more to trying to identify market movers and getting a bet-to-nothing. The 3:45 at Brighton tomorrow looks a good example of this; Goldhill Prince 12/1 in the RP 14.0 on BF for small change should provide a good trading edge.
Artemis, valid points anbout jockey and trainer stats. the headline stats are over used by lazy people and there is some useful data if you dig a bit deeper.
For years, I was very sceptical of any systematic approach until I discovered some of the work of Peter May and others. Having read most of Peter’s books I started about developing my approach. There is no way I could go back to traditional methods. As Alan Potts suggests, don’t follow the crowd.
The raw output from my database is a good guide to assessing probable odds/chances and having this early in the afternnon gives me a head start in forming opinions for the next days racing.
Cormack15 & nore, I have built a database along with a programmer over the last couple of years. Can’t go into the finer points of my method. If you can accept Peter May has developed a speed figure method without using standard times then similar kind of thinking lead me to throwing old chestnuts away and start from scratch. A few variables we do not use; weight, official handicap marks and penalties.
A very well know ratings service is used by lots of people to trade on the exchanges from 9:30 am every morning. This service uses over 200 variables in their model and their output is good. I am more interested in finding big market movers than finding winners. Our outline tissue is run within minutes of the declarations for the next days racing being downloaded which gives us a good edge providing we can get bets matched early. The drop in early liquidity on Betfair over recent months is a problem.<br>
The market has moved! I got into Take A Bow at 5.1 and out at 4.1 for a profit. Great idea this exchange business :)
Well if three of us have arrived at a similar conclusion about the 6:50 surely Fort Dignity will be a drifter from 2.22 at present t around 2.5 and Take a Bow will shorten from the 5.0. I prefer to trade than bet!
It would be a no play race for me due to the small field size and have not complied any odds for theis race. If pushed for a selection it would be Take A Bow and would look to lay Fort Dignity at current odds.
Not a race to rely on Speed Figures for me.
What view do you take on this race?
(Edited by Wallace at 3:49 pm on May 9, 2005)
Quite a few of my strong beliefs covered on this thread already!
Overrated<br> <br>Collateral form & ratings<br>Speed figures<br>Weight<br>Handicap marks<br>Draw<br>Paddock opinions<br>Jockey ability
Important
Going<br>Suitability of the track/race/time of year<br>Recent form of trainer, not based on strike rate.
I have built a method of working using about 50 variables and the end result is a probability rating based on these based to a 100% book.
