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Can any of the speed figure gurus on here outline their basic method?
So you have different standards for different class of race?
Are standard times based on 3-y-o’s performances in handicap races?
What is the scale 0 to 100? or 0 to 140?
Do you allow for actual weight carried compared to a standard at 9-00?
How do you apply the WFA table?
If three races on same day at same course (say 6f races, Nottingham, good ground in June) were won by a 2-y-o, 3-y-o and a 4 y-o in same times of 1min 15 sec, what would SF’s be for each.
Remember you always get extra marks for showing your working :)
EC
I understand what yer saying
SPLIT SECOND for 2.10 Newc
B Pirate 117<br>P Point 114<br>Pata 114<br>Beck 113<br>C Creep 113<br>I Maid 111<br>Quito 111<br>Soldiers 110<br>Steen 110<br>O Gold 109<br>F Jag 108<br>Tourn 102
I use the RAW figure as a base to work through the field,assessing under what conditions each figure was achieved, it’s value to todays race and hopefully coming to the right conclusion
We could argue forever about the precise effect of weight on racehorse performance under certain conditions, but, as EC says, that’s not the same as saying it has no effect at all: it clearly must do.
If you think that the fact that Pardise Isle carried 8-5 rather than 10-0 will have had no effect on the horse’s overall race time then I disagree entirely and can’t see the point in going over the whole issue yet again.
Weight-for-age is arguably more optional, as it is a theoretical adjustment to allow for likely improvement rather than an actual weight differential in itself. Ideally, we would know excatly how much each individual horse is likely to improve (or deteriorate) over time. But we don’t and therefore we have to fall back on general guidelines. If you do away with these general guidelines you still have to allow for the fact that a horse will, on average, improve significantly in terms of how fast it can run between, say, the start of its 3-y-o season and the end of it but your figures won’t be reflecting that.
Pru
I now mainly bet in 3yo+hcps upto a mile and the majority of the time weight is not a factor in that analysis,
A lb on here a lb off there on  500 kilos of pure muscle does not IMVHO have the influence it is supposed to have,if it did the handicapper would have this game sewn up,but other factors are at work IMVHO the majority of the time
There is a point where the weight carried stops a horse from winning,
If weight effects horses in the way we are led to believe,please explain these examples,of which there are many
Seirra Vista 8-5 Ellens Academy 8-6 neck 2005<br>Seirra Vista 8-7Ellens Academy 8-12 neck 2004
Did the difference in weight affect their the results?<br>Did the weight  make the difference to the racetimes
Eistedfod has won again today, is his 25lb higher mark slowing him down?
<br>  <br>
(Edited by empty wallet at 5:54 pm on June 25, 2005)
Of course Eisteddfod’s increase in weight compared to other horses is slowing him down in relative terms.
If Eisteddfod were an unchanging machine pushed to its limits on each and every occasion under identical conditions the effect of such a fundamental law of physics would be obvious.
But he’s a horse whose athletic ability and aptitude for different conditions is dynamic and not static, and he competes in an arena where the effect of weight is complicated by many other factors.
He has improved in terms of athletic ability/aptitude, or, possibly, he has always been this good but it has just not been apparent due to the circumstances of his previous efforts.<br>
complicated by many other factors.
It is these many other factors that have the biggest influence,otherwise weight increase would show a steady decline in his RAW speedfigure,would it not?
Wallace,
I can answer all of your questions, and will do so as soon as time permits. There is that much racing going on at the moment, it is difficult to keep track.
I don’t do my own speed ratings any more – haven’t for over a year – because it is too time consuming and can take over your life. I have faith in the Topspeed and RPR ratings, so I just use them. I am sure they are just as reliable as any other ratings.
Hi guys,
Can anyone recommend any sources either in books or on the web that offer a good introduction to the basics for someone looking to compile their own time ratings?
cheers
Nore
Mordin on Time is basic and easy to understand,go onto Amazon.co.uk books section,horse racing section,there should be others in there
By the way, EW, on the Paradise Isle time, you might be interested in knowing that the sectionals from the Newmarket July course so far suggest that you need to run the final 2f of a 6f race there in a speed of about 99% of your overall race speed in order to achieve a "good" relative time.
Paradise Isle ran the last 2f in 22.79 sec or a speed % of over 105, indicating that she is either a phenomenal horse or must have gone on the slow side overall. Other analysis points strongly to the latter being the case.
Interesting Prufrock
Looked at the sectionals,the 1st furlong looked slow,maybe you can confirm,but on the overall race time
From 2004 to present,Filles and mares
Frizzante, July Cup<br>Jewel in the Sand, Cherry Hinton
<br>Have posted better times <br>
(Edited by empty wallet at 11:46 pm on June 27, 2005)
To put it another way, Paradise Isle quickened so well at the end of the race that it’s very unlikely she went a strong enough pace before that to produce a good overall race time for a horse of her ability.
Whose SF table?
If Paradise Isle recorded a good time relative to her (admittedly useful) ability then she’s almost unique in having done so despite running the race in such an inefficient style.
If this is what you get by ignoring weight in timefigure calculations then at least sectionals show such methodology up for what it is.
(Edited by Prufrock at 12:11 am on June 28, 2005)
Just to add a little more to my LIsted class time argument
Paradise Isle was beaten 4L(level weight :biggrin: ) in a listed race on G/S by Ruby Rocket posting a SF of 100,the winner recieving 106,she has a figure better than Ruby Rockets for her latest performance<br> <br>
(Edited by empty wallet at 1:25 am on June 28, 2005)
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