The home of intelligent horse racing discussion
The home of intelligent horse racing discussion

Profit Expectations

Home Forums Archive Topics Profit Expectations

Viewing 14 posts - 1 through 14 (of 14 total)
  • Author
    Posts
  • #4244
    Wallace
    Participant
    • Total Posts 862

    I am Intertested to know what performance members are happy with over the course of a year.  I calculate profit to true level stakes (i.e.  profit divided by average stake).  In recent years I have achieved about 90 to 130 points profits over a year.  How does this compare???

    W.

    #101583
    Daylight
    Member
    • Total Posts 369

    I look at making between 8-12pts on every 100pts I stake or simply put between 8 & 12% profit as there are no get-rich-quick schemes just steady growth in my case, although the last 3 months have not helped!!

    #101585
    dave jay
    Member
    • Total Posts 3386

    It all depends how many bets are required to generate your profit. Sometimes I bet seriously when I’m looking to make steady profit, in which case it’s all about turnover and margins. I’m happy with 5 points a week. Other times I go to the bookies with £100 and try and win £500, it all depends what your after.

    #101586
    LUKE
    Member
    • Total Posts 271

    Someone once said a professional should make 5% on turnover after expenses.Sounds easier then it actually is.

    #101592
    Valueseeker
    Member
    • Total Posts 5

    Wallace

    I have not got the figures to hand to calculate my points return to average stake, although yours looks useful.

    I started off my ‘serious’ betting nearly 3 years ago with the aim of making 20% profit on turnover, before expenses.  This seemed a reasonable expectation at the time and like most people who take their betting seriously I have exceeded that figure during periods when it seemed impossible to avoid winners.  It’s the losing periods of -10% or worse that are the problem!

    I now think that 10% profit is a decent return and it is certainly not easy for most people to make that.  I expect to turnover about £200k next year, so if I come away with £20K profit I will be happy.

    Ian – by my calculations your professional better friend must turnover £800k to £2500k to make the profits you indicate on a margin of 4% to 12%.  Ouch!  Does he place a hugh amount of bets or does he just have an outlet for very hefty wagers?

    #101596
    jasonr
    Member
    • Total Posts 14

    I made about 4.4% ROI last year & am currently on 4.8% this year, after all expenses. I have had nearly 1712 bets this year!<br>But to be honest, I am more bothered about the % increase on my starting bank for the year, last year I made 120% on it, this year, at the moment, I have 200% on it but, with the numbe rof bets I have it flucuates wildly. One thing I find important is NOT to set a target. I reckon if you are falling short of your target you might get desperate to try & get it back, for me you should just aim for a profit & not worry about any given target.<br>One thing I will say though, thank god they scrapped 9% betting tax!

    #101597
    Wallace
    Participant
    • Total Posts 862

    Interesting to see how virtually everyone asseses their performance on percentages of turnover.  I bet virtually level stakes thouhout the course of a season and monitor my profit in level stake units.

    When all tipping services quote results to their own staking, it becomes impossible to accurately compare performance.  The true level stakes approach is an acid test of profit and I am interested to see how I compare to others on here.

    jasonr, if you have had 1712 bets this year and produced a profit of 4.8%, could you calculate your LSP using the average method??

    <br>Ian, I think I know your friend.  Without mentioning names is he one of the tallest punters in the ring and concentrates on NH??  I spoke to this guy at a meeting last year when after the second race he had turned over £6k for £25 profit!!!  He was having a poor day.

    #101600
    tooting
    Member
    • Total Posts 379

    On April 6th this year I decided to make a key change the way I bet, for both the flat season, and then this jumps season.  <br> <br>Prior to April I was just interested in building up my betting bank.  However, I felt I had reached the point where I ought to take it all more seriously.  (I was 40 on April 6th!).  

    It seemed to me I could go ‘semi pro’, and actually earn money from my gambling, as opposed to just building up a bank.    A subtle difference maybe, but one that altered my strategy a fair bit.  The key difference was the intention to pay myself a monthly dividend, from my fund.

    I hoped to be able to do this, and at least keep the fund level, and hopefully still building.

    My first step was to decide on the return I was hoping for/expecting.  The previous jumps season my returns had been 130% on turnover.

    That was a good year obviously – so I worked on the basis of a challenging 120% – with 112% keeping the fund level after dividends had been paid.  

    This would give me a modest income of £1000 per month. Any extra I would use to build the bank.  So, to keep it simple I aimed for a profit of £20000 over the year.

    That means I had to turnover on average roughly £2000 per week.

    I’d never even considered having to turn over money before – I was just trying to build up capital, so this was a challenge.  Past records showed that I’d either have to double my average stake, or double the number of bets I was making.  I decided on a compromise, increasing both stakes and the number of bets.

    I also realised I had to take other opportunities more seriously, in particular laying opportunities on betfair.

    I passed the 6 months mark a couple of weeks ago – ie what I used to call a ‘season’.

    For that season my turnover was £55760, returns £70355 (126%).

    This included (as some will know) a losing streak of 46 bets, my longest ever.  So at the moment (fingers-crossed, touch wood, please God), I’m well on target.

    Incidentally, my approach is very similar to the one Ian describes his mate as using – (except I rarely go racing and find horses fairly frightening!)

    <br>  

    #101603
    tooting
    Member
    • Total Posts 379

    Wallace,

    sorry must have been posting at the same time.

    Re LSP – I can’t do this accurately for you I’m afraid.

    However, looking at my single win bets – which make up over half my bets:

    247 bets.  36 wins (14%)

    Out £30355   In £38485  (126% – an interesting coincidence)

    247 bets would give an average stake of £122.  Which I make a LSP of 68 points – well below your own.

    #101606
    jasonr
    Member
    • Total Posts 14

    87.70 points using your method wallace<br>

    (Edited by jasonr at 6:21 pm on Nov. 6, 2002)

    #101608
    jasonr
    Member
    • Total Posts 14

    I was wrong about my ROI this year, it is 5.12%

    #101611
    Wallace
    Participant
    • Total Posts 862

    Many thanks to all for the constructive replys.  I really do think assessing your performance in LSP terms is important and helps to keep things in perspective especially when comparing returns over a number of years.

    I have been punting seriously for many years and professionally for the last three years.  During the last year I have drastically reduced the number of bets and increased my stakes.  I don’t set firm targets but, if I show a profit of 2 LS points per week I’m very happy.  My current point is £300.  I now virtually bet level stakes and have eliminated the eratic staking of old.

    W.

    #101612
    Anonymous
    Inactive
    • Total Posts 2

    27 points profit using your system to work it out.

    This from Sept 14 to Nov 6

    #101615
    tooting
    Member
    • Total Posts 379

    Wallace,

    interesting.

    For me, my profits have definitely increased by adopting a personal b*****d
    isation of the kelly criterion. If I get time I’ll try and assess how I would have done to level stakes on a variety of bets, and let you know.

Viewing 14 posts - 1 through 14 (of 14 total)
  • You must be logged in to reply to this topic.