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Mon Parrain could be anything, he was that impressive at Sandown.
I wouldnt rule him out if he goes in this rather than the JS handicap.
Katchit, Detriot City, Oh Crick, Katarino, Star De Mohaison, Black Jack Ketchum are others since 2006.
There have also been quite a few that finished second at Cheltenham and won at Aintree – Mighty Man, Binocular, Walkon, Exotic Dancer, Strangely Brown, Straw Bear, Voy Por Ustedes (twice), Gwanako, Tidal Bay (over hurdles), Kalahari King, Silver Birch, Burton Port, Khyber Kim.
Makings of a system here – only back horses in non handicaps at Aintree that finished in the first two at Cheltenham. It certainly produces plenty of winners.
AP
Yes it sounds like a good plan in the non-handicaps. I think its the handicap races that are the problem.
Its also worth noting how many big priced winners there are at Aintree, especially in the last few years.
Anyone got any stats on horses that have double in the last 3 years or so?
I can only think of:
2010:
Big Bucks (Liverpool hurdle)
Albertas Run (JS Melling chase)
Peddlers Cross (Mersey Novices hurdle)2009:
Big Bucks (Liverpool hurdle)2008:
Our Vic (Totesport Bowl)
Tidal Bay (JS Maghul Novices Chase)WT
Of the gd1 tracks, Kempton form probably translates the best as, though it’s larger and RH, it’s flat, has stiffish fences, and similarly sharp bends.
The ‘new’ Haydock circuit is probably the next nearest gd1 in configuration, though the fences aren’t nearly as stiff as they once were, similarly the ‘new’ Wetherby.Thanks Reet.
I always had a feeling Kempton was similiar but right handed so dont know how much that form can translate across.
I think the changes Haydock have made dont really make it a suitable comparison but Wetherby is interesting.
Thanks.
I tend to back horses that bypassed Cheltenham as I think Aintree comes too soon after hard races.
I dont know whether this is a good idea. I have tried this tactic for the last 5 years to no profit whatsoever.
I think when you are looking at Aintree you are better to look for previous course form and ignore the Cheltenham form from the month previous.
I agree that my statement looks s bit silly based on last year’s results but I’m going by the last 20+ years of form over the 2 festivals. Also, there were less than 3 weeks between them some years & that makes a difference, imo, after some hard races in the mud at Cheltenham. I think the form holds up well when there’s been at least 3 week break and decent ground.
Yes that makes sense given the conditions of the ground, I dont think horses that have had hard races at Cheltenham in soft conditions seem to struggle to recover in 3 weeks (especially when they are back in listed races or very competitive handicaps). The other thing about Aintree is that you should steer clear of short priced favourites ie. Imperial Commander, Denman.
If you mean the National course, nowhere!
THe Mildmay course is flat and sharp, with fairly stiff fences, so take it from there. THere is no substitute for course form.
No I dont mean the National course.
What other courses are flat and sharp with stiff fences that are comparable?
I tend to back horses that bypassed Cheltenham as I think Aintree comes too soon after hard races.
I dont know whether this is a good idea. I have tried this tactic for the last 5 years to no profit whatsoever.
I think when you are looking at Aintree you are better to look for previous course form and ignore the Cheltenham form from the month previous.
Must admit I was most impressed with:
Peddlers Cross
Weapons Amnesty
Sizing EuropeAll three will be in with very good shouts next year providing they stay healthy.
There are two main rules I used when selecting this year:
1. Horses for courses
2. Class always tellsI was lucky enough to have Pause and Clause/Buena Vista which fit into the first category and Binocular/Sizing Europe for the second.
I completely agree.
I don’t think he even has to run to the best of his ability to win this race.
Class always shines through in the end.
Voy Por + 16/1 / Ryanair Chase = Very happy Walker!!
I’m going to stick my neck on the line and say….
Voy Por Ustedes wins the Ryanair.
I think some of the horses in this race are massively over-rated over this course and distance.
I’m all over it at 16’s.
I’ve had an ew on Woolcombe Folly; he didn’t start his season till quite late because of an injury; if he’s back to his best he could easily run into a place. Not sure what his rating was over hurdles, but I think he was pretty smart. Needs good ground, though. Didn’t see how he jumped when he beat Mad Max.
I watched the race and he just outjumped and outpaced Mad Max, whom I think has the attributes to be a top notch chaser. A really solid EW chance for Woolcombe Folly.
I can’t believe people honestly think Robert Thornton is a better jockey than McCoy.
The records speak for themselves.
My opinion, for what it’s worth.
It did not look like Denman settled throughout the race, whether it was he was not fit or he did not like the feel of the jockey on his back. Either way, he never looked in control in the way he normally does.
I personally think McCoy is the best jockey for getting the most out of underperforming horses, much to the fact he has been booked on some very average rides over the past couple of years.
In this case, Denman is such as dominant animal and a ‘bully’ of a horse. Maybe there was a style clash between the two.
Although everyone is angry with the horse/jockey/trainer for what happened and the money we all lost on Saturday, I think you have to put it in perspective.
I would rather see what happened on Saturday, happen then, than in the Gold Cup. Let’s all hope that McCoy schools the horse a couple of times in Ditcheat. Cause does anyone really believe Findlay and Barber will drop the champion jockey after the build up they have given him.
The only Festival race I’d want to put my house on him winning is The Gold Cup, if anything went wrong with Denman, Kauto Star is a very decent back up.
Surely he has two very good chances in the Champion chase?
Just wondering if Nicholls will be as succesful at the festival this year as he was last? 5 winners last year, with Chapoturgen and American Trilogy being the somewhat surprises. He also had alot of placed horses narrowly losing, ie Celestial Halo, Pride of Dulcote.
You would expect Kauto/Denman/MM/Twist Magic/Big Bucks/Poquelin to be close in their respective races, however, could Alan King, Nicky Henderson, Nigel Twiston-Davies and Willie Mullins have just as strong chances going into Cheltenham.
Don’t know the odds on Nicholls having most winners but I imagine he is a odds on fav. Could be worth taking on?
I don’t understand why you consider form and win % for favourites to be related. Are you suggesting the favourite in every race is the horse with the best form? If so then I’m afraid that’s clearly nonsense
Apologies, I don’t mean the fav is generally the horse with the best form, I think this is just my own quip on how I pick horses, etc.
It is interesting that you believe there is some furore surrounding favouritism at the big races. I have been going to Aintree for the National festival for the past 9 years and the people who pick horses for colours/names, etc seem to always do well. For example, Walkon won at Aintree in April at 2/1, how many Liverpool FC fans would have been there that day, lumping on blindly. Or, the amount of punter who back horses with names in the title. Granted, there is possibly some fools paradise going on but I tend to find that you can study the form for Cheltenham/Aintree all day and it doesn’t get you that far!