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This race is one of my favourites as it is run over the National fences. It is also very strong on trends.
Winner invariably carries less than 11st and can win out of the HCap.
Prominent runners from at least half way have a massive strike rate.
Previous experience of these fences is a must!
Last seasons race form is very strong the following year.
The more runs this season the better.
Peter Bowen does well.I have backed 2 ante post at nice prices which will be shorter come race day.
Always Waining (16s) won this race last year for Peter Bowen and comes here off the back of some hurdle runs to keep his chase handicap mark down. Obviously he is 4th reserve for the national but they will know if he has got a run by Thur night.
(Frankie Figg loves these fences but always throws in at least one massive mistake!)
2nd bet is Isn’t That Lucky (20s) who finished 3rd in this race last year for Jonjo, coming from a long way back. Maybe ridden closer to the pace this year and hopefully run on into a place or better.
Good Luck anyone who plays
Notice that Howard has an entry in the Topham this week ,if it runs it will be a brave decision as he lost his beloved Avonburn in the race in `95.
Mon Parrain could be anything, he was that impressive at Sandown.
I wouldnt rule him out if he goes in this rather than the JS handicap.
WT: Totally agree with you and he has been confirmed today for this race. He skipped over the Sandown fences which in themselves are not easy so he should have no trouble BUT his price will reflect this so i have gone for some value.
Good Luck with MP as he looks like being one helluva horse mate.
I was very impressed with
Mon Parrain
at Sandown – the way he travelled and, especially, the way he jumped.
I have since suggested that he could be a candidate for a future Gold Cup. Not a conventional route for a potential Gold Cup horse, but you never know!
Looking forward to seeing him tackle those big fences.
Hate to burst the bubble here, but what exactly did MP beat at Sandown? Appleaday and Rear Gunner are class 3 performers; Prophete De Guye and Circus of Dreams class 4…Yes, he was impressive, but a rating of 149 as consequence is on the high side and this is altogether a different test against seasoned campaigners, especially for such a young horse. Leave alone if you ask me at such a short price (I could be forced to eat my words at ten to four tomorrow but so be it!).
I like
Chasing Cars
for this. Trainer had a winner at Cheltenham, and think will have CC spot on for this after albeit two mediocre runs so far this season (on soft). Was an impressive winner at a Grade A Novice Chase Punchestown last April, beating some good horses such as Nicanor and Copper Bleu, and won a Maiden Hurdle in style in Feb 08 (beating the useful Freney’s Well) suggesting he relishes the good Spring ground. His run in the RSA Chase last year was disappointing but was held up that day which clearly is not playing to this strengths – A bold front-running type, he will at least stay out of trouble and has a former GN winning jockey to steer. 20/1 is good value IMO.
Career high mark to contend with and had a tough race last time at Newbury, but beat GN hopefuls Big Fella Thanks and Niche Market in the process. Not insurmountable that he may still be improving and has had a fine 12 months which has seen 5 wins. Will like the ground also – fair at 14/1.
My tip is
DEV 8/1
Won at Aintree on is last visit has joined Gordon Elliott ran well on debut for him he did.Will put him spot on for this and be near the pace as well.
My tip is
DEV 8/1
Won at Aintree on is last visit has joined Gordon Elliott ran well on debut for him he did.Will put him spot on for this and be near the pace as well.
DEV for me to under the brilliant Paul Carberry. That ride in the last today was something else.
Nevada Royale to go well at crazy odds to!
Martin
Chickens! The lot of you!
I’ll be jumping every fence with Frankie. We’ll stand or fall, together! It’s gonna be a hell of a ride
0.75pts e/w Ballyholland @ 20/1
(Ladbrokes)
Absolute minefield again, and I couldn’t help but be impressed by Mon Parrain’s success at Sandown, jumping beautifully. But in races such as this, I always think it’s wise to go for one at a price. My selection is Ballyholland in this race.
This 10yo is experienced over fences having raced in 6 PTPs, and 15 chases, with only 2 runs over hurdles. Clearly versatile, based on its 2 mile hurdle success over the now useful chaser Mr Cracker in Naas last January. Not the most typical of warm-ups for the Aintree feature when that run was followed by a 2 mile chase run, beaten 10l by Tranquil Sea. This horse clearly has a touch of class, but simply didn’t get home in last year’s Grand National.
However, there was a lot to like about its run over the Aintree fences. Went well, running prominently for a long way, jumping like a stag on the whole. Really picks up at his fences which suits the course perfectly.
He is versatile in terms of ground – won 3 races (including PTPs) on quick ground, as well as 2 on softer ground, and 1 on Good/yielding.
Returned to the racecourse with a prep hurdle run at Naas on the 9th March, and ran a pleasing race to finish 11l off the winner (a progressive horse), after a long absence. Should have put him right for this race.
The trip today looks perfect for the horse, whose chase wins under rules have all come between 2m4f and 2m6f.
Given the way he jumped and travelled for a long way in the National last year, this race looks bang on for the horse, and off a 4lb lower mark, if retaining as much ability as a 10yo, should give us a good run for our money at a nice price.
Andrew McNamara has experience of the National fences with 6 runs under his belt. No great shows, but his runners have had odds of:
100/1, 100/1, 66/1, 33/1, 33/1, 25/1
So it’s hardly to be unexpected.
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