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Couldn’t agree more about his technique — now all-in CB fans won’t care (I do plan on backing him but still working out to what extent) about this but — this is what is making him make mistakes. He is very fast, and when the pace quickens towards the end of races he’s ‘flying’ the fence, like shabby says quite flat, and at that pace he doesn’t have time to adjust if he connects, as in the photo above.
If he’s learned he’ll get away with it.
IF IF IF
Sizing has no such issues.
Either way, there has been a couple of occasions where he hasn’t landed as one would like!
Other than those two errors I’ve been very impreessed with his jumping. I think this horse has everything. Anyone like to offer any prices on Cee Bee winning the Champion Chase next year??!
Not worried that they went past him like he was standing still? And that he got brushed aside by inferior animals to those 2 lto? Don’t answer lol, pointless questions given you’re backing him! Good luck
That doesnt really bother me too much as Leopardstown is not Cheltenham by any stretch and Osana is much better suited to cheltenham than leopardstown. Theres no doubt in my mind that Osana is top class on his conditions. There is also no doubt in my mind that Sizing Europe and Captain Cee Bee are top class on their days too. However IMO there wont be much between those three on the day, the Arkle is a scrappy race and I think any of them could fall. But if I backed Captain Cee Bee or Sizing Europe and they fell, I would be gutted. If I back Osana and he wins then brilliant, if he places then good, if he falls then its not a major drama. I’ll usually have a few decent priced horses come in at the festival, and I think Osana at 25s looks like a decent bet IMO.
Its very easy when you like a horse to get blinkered into ruling out everything else and I’m happy enough that joe public is betting this as a two horse race, because I’m not convinced that it is and if Osana was 8-1 or the like I wouldnt touch him.
Very fair. Fwiw I made out a detailed case for Osana in last year’s Champion, and he ran appallingly. I think he may have ‘gone’ to be honest. I’m not a fan of launching into favourites at all, but the Arkle and RSA do look like match-ups for the winner’s circle.
Its very easy when you like a horse to get blinkered into ruling out everything else
Wise words and here lies the biggest reason for torn up betting slips
I’ve learned the hard way that when "one of mine" lets me down to be VERY cautious in it’s next run or two with a favourite horse one needs to be double critical. That’s one of the reasions I won’t back Denman in The Gold Cup
and that’s why I didn’t back Sizing in his comeback race against Hardy Eustace (thankfully) nor in the whole of last season. Although his Punchestown run suggested he was back to rude health I didn’t back him on his chasing debut either, waited and watched.
If I have a bet in The Arkle it will be on Sizing Europe, he’s shown me enough this season to have regained my belief in himI think there are 3 potentially huge each way prospects in this race.
Mad Max-40/1-An absolute beast of a horse, got beat last time to Paul Nicholls returning horse Woolcombe Folly. If he gets ground and a race run to suit he can run into a place a big price here.
Wollcombe Folly-25/1- Beat Mad Max last time by a few lengths, and If he continues his winning run and good form, with the help of a few blunders like Captain Cee Bee can do, He can possibly win if not place.
Nicanor- Seems to be a bit of a horse that isnt noticed much,I’ve only seen him run in Ireland and once in America, but he seems to have a good run every time and think he may run into a place if he gets a good weight, he is also brother to Barbaro.
I think your getting confused Kez. Nicanor is Noel Meade’s 9 year old who beat Denman in the 2007 Ballymore hurdle at the festival. He has ran a few races in Ireland recently after returning from injury, but has never ran in America. He is likely to run in a handicap at the festival this year. Also all male horses of 6+ have the same weight to carry in the Arkle.
The Nicanor you refer to Kez is a different horse – he is a half to Barbaro but is only 4yo. He’s looked quite decent on the turf but nowhere near as good as his brother.
I’ve had an ew on Woolcombe Folly; he didn’t start his season till quite late because of an injury; if he’s back to his best he could easily run into a place. Not sure what his rating was over hurdles, but I think he was pretty smart. Needs good ground, though. Didn’t see how he jumped when he beat Mad Max.
I’ve had an ew on Woolcombe Folly; he didn’t start his season till quite late because of an injury; if he’s back to his best he could easily run into a place. Not sure what his rating was over hurdles, but I think he was pretty smart. Needs good ground, though. Didn’t see how he jumped when he beat Mad Max.
I watched the race and he just outjumped and outpaced Mad Max, whom I think has the attributes to be a top notch chaser. A really solid EW chance for Woolcombe Folly.
I am guessing from the market that Tataniano will now be running in the Grand Annual to conveniently allow Walsh to ride Sports Line in this. Stewart and Nicholls are often put forward as great for keeping punters in the picture. If this is true what a joke. Join the JP club chaps.
Sports Line is a good horse but I was disappointed that he got beat in the Irish Arkle and he will have to be better than that to win or even place here. He came off a good gallop, had the race in his hands and got passed by An Cathoir Mor, who hasn’t done much for the form since.
I think that Sizing would have won that race and can’t work out why they didn’t run him.
- Total Posts 17716
THE ARKLE
113 Somersby
107 Captain Cee Bee
103 Tataniano
102 Shakervilz
101 Riverside Theatre
100 Osana
96 Sizing Europe
95 Kempes
92 Long Run
91 French Opera
91 Woolcombe Folly
91 Nicanor
90 The Nightingale
88 Bedlam Boy
87 Mad Max
87 Quiscover Fontaine
86 Sports Line
85 Uimhiraceathar
63 BergoBETTING
Captain Cee Bee (10/3) , Somersby (11/2) , Sizing Europe (13/2) , Long Run (10) , Riverside Theatre (10) , Sports Line (10) , Tataniano (16) , Osana (20) , Bergo (33) , French Opera (33) , Shakervilz (33) , The Nightingale (33) , Woolcombe Folly (33) , Kangaroo Court (40) , Mad Max (40) , Bedlam Boy (50) , Kempes (50) , Nicanor (50) , Quiscover Fontaine (50) , Uimhiraceathair (50)
VERDICT
The stand out selection in this race would be Captain Cee Bee who was a winner of the Supreme Novice Hurdle in 2008, he broke a blood vessel in 2008 and came back off a 608 day layoff to win a decent handicap but hasn’t really been put to the sword although he’s subsequently fell despite going so easily which makes you want to ask a few questions, will he be up for a scintillating end to end gallop, will he want to finish up the hill? We know the abilities there but his mental fitness will be put to the test after recent experiences.
There is however an emergence of a talented Novice Chaser who put up an impressive performance at Sandown running 1.82 seconds faster than Twist Magic who was primed for the Tingle Creek in top condition and he is Somersby, the sky really is the limit in the chasing world for Somersby who is a real big and fine looking chaser who has the potential to win a Gold Cup one day and on evidence to date he’ll take some stopping in the Arkle. Those who liked to think outside the box at bigger prices you’ll have to be interested in the pair Tataniano and Shakervilz.
Tataniano has definite potential but people are very quick to write of his chances when comparing him to last year’s Tatenen, but prior to the emergence of Somersby he was very much in the forefront of my mind with an Ante Post bet still on his head given his fine run at Cheltenham running 2.11 seconds slower than the Connaught Chase carrying an extra 6lb than the winner Well Chief with Master Minded in behind, I am convinced he has a lot of potential although he relishes good ground or better and with that in mind he’ll be avoided if the ground turns out too testing.
The other horse on the equation has to be the Willie Mullins trained Shakervilz, now I have let this one slip my mind especially as there hasn’t been too much talk surrounding his chances and the betting shows that but when working through the ratings I think you really have to take consideration of his chances, the race at Leopardstown when earning his figure of 102 was run on good ground despite every form book mentioning heavy and he beat a well backed horse that day called Sorceror who subsequently finished 6l behind Captain Cee Bee on his return but Shakervilz has come out and beat Sorceror again by 15l in the Group 2 Novice at Navan which leaves us in the a precarious position although he may not be up to winning an Arkle the trainer stated this is his most likely route and he’s definitely a nice horse to keep on the right side off.
BETS
Somersby Win @ 11-2
Tataniano EW @ 16-1
Shakervilz EW @ 33-1"Our Vic" wrote: Sports Line is a good horse but I was disappointed that he got beat in the Irish Arkle and he will have to be better than that to win or even place here. He came off a good gallop, had the race in his hands and got passed by An Cathoir Mor, who hasn’t done much for the form since.
I think that Sizing would have won that race and can’t work out why they didn’t run him.
Ehh, maybe because An Cathaoir Mór was good enough to win!
Does anyone fancy French Opera in this [more to place than win]? Very good course form. Tempted by 25/1 ew.
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