Forum Replies Created
- Posts
Over the years it looks to me as if the Arc has become a race for 3-y-o fillies to win, preferably trained in France. Minding looks the best proven filly, but stats show a previous run at Longchamp and trained in France fares the best, this is why I believe that on the day La Cressonniere will prevail.
Stop dreamin’ of OOSG and Postponed
Surely though we have to ignore the stats a little as this Arc shall be at Chantilly? There is always French Derby Winner of 2015, New Bay (yes, he is a colt and 4). Though, we have to see how he performs at Leopardstown at the Irish Champions Stakes. Not sure he really is a 12 f horse either.
As you know, Danedream was German trained, and she proved that her Arc win in 2011 was no fluke by winning the King George the following year and shaping up to run in the 2012 edition of the Arc.
Postponed definitely does not have a gimme
Thanks to Stilvi for putting me on to Order Of St George. I’ve looked through the form and 16/1 or 14’s looks to under-estimate his chance.
Some may be against him for being an Ascot Gold Cup winner, but not many Gold Cup winners have gone for the race, of those that do they’ve got a good record of going close. Order Of St George shows more speed than your average Gold Cup winner.
Some might be against him on the evidence of not beating top class animals. But he didn’t just beat them, he won the GC by 3 lengths having had to wait for gaps and not all out so deserves to be rated as winning by further. Every reason to believe Mizzou improved, having at last had a complete test of stamina. Sheikhzayadroad 3rd was beaten 5 1/4 lengths, only beaten 1 1/2 by Big Orange in the Goodwood Cup next time. 5.25 – 1.5 = 3.75. Had Order Of St George also been an easy 3 3/4 lengths winner of Goodwood and the Princess Of Wales Group 2 at Newmarket. Comes out a 6 1/4 lengths better horse than The Grey Gatsby on a form line through Big Orange and Sheikhzayadroad. 6 3/4 better than Newmarket 3rd Exosphere. Latter only beaten 4 1/2 by Postponed in the International. Now, I don’t believe some of those form lines, for one thing need to take account of a length over 2m4f being worth less in pounds than 1m4f or 1m2f… and some would’ve improved in between races. But at least it shows the form is working out better than some (who only look at winners when it comes to form) believe. As well as the above, the horses Sheikzayadroad beat in to 3rd at Goodwood included 4th Wicklowe Brave and 6th Quest For More. Former should’ve beaten the latter in Lonsdale Cup if it wasn’t for temperament/pace in the race; the two separated by Goodwood second Pallasator. Order Of St George is considerably better than the rest of the stayers. Won prep race for the Irish St Leger (Group 3) giving away a load of weight with ease. That his 6th win in a row! Knows how to win and could well pull out more if needed.
Of his other races:
Had been beaten a short head by subsequent English St Leger second Bondi Beach in the Curragh Cup, but that was his first run of that season – missed the Derbys so we don’t exactly know what he can do at 1m4f. Improved to win his classic; last year’s Irish St Leger with a performance a whole lot better than Doncaster’s (Bondi Beach/Simple Verse) version. Won By 11 lengths from Agent Murphy.All in all, I believe Order Of St George deserves to be a lot closer to Postponed in the market.
What a pity Big Orange may not run in the Irish St Leger. Might be up his street. Would be interesting to see how good Order of St George is at 14 f (yes, he destroyed the field last year, poor auld Brown Panther ran his last race but other than him, there wasn’t many daycent horses in that race)
Does anyone know if New Bay is running at Leopardstown?. Racing Post still has him down, but he is also down for the Foy which is on the day later
So the owners left it entirely up to the trainer as to where Fair Eva ran, they had no involvement in the decision?
Fair point.Not sure how the Prince and Lord Grimthrope roll. They tend to have faith in their trainers though and let them make some of those decisions. Ralph Beckett was allowed to let his two year old filly (who has yet to win a maiden) run against the boys in the listed race at Newbury recently . I’d imagine that they would not dare tell Michael Stoute what to do with where the likes of Convey and Platitude run . I could be wrong of course
Have to agree with that, he spent big money on a 10-yr-old hunter a few yrs ago (can’t recall the name) which seemed bizarre at the time, and wasn’t a success. BU JP must be even worse, does any owner have so many bad horses? Respect for him keeping the industry going tho.
I am not sure that people ever want to say anything bad about JP He most certainly keeps many people in racing in both Ireland and UK. He does a lot for the injured jockeys fund and in Limerick in general
But, yeah, he is as bad as Godolpin in the sense that he will buy up any decent young horse that won a good race (though Jim Bolger won’t complain as he clearly got his two year olds to be prepped to be bought by them) .Sadly the investment might not have been a good one thereafter. However, saying that, he regularly did win both the UK and Irish owners titles, until Gigginstown got its act together. It was quantity over quality for JP. It has worked eg 1-2-3 in the Galway Plate in 2013
Still Carlingford Lough has been a great servant to them , in Ireland. Jetson has done well in JP’s colours as well
I hope Barry Geraghty does not regret becoming his main jockey,
I don’t know why Charlton is getting abuse for sending Fair Eva to York. It got beat, simple.
It was sent off odds on, looked like winning in running and was beaten by it’s half-sister. It was hardly a disgrace.
Before it had hacked up in a six furlong race. Was it really a huge mistake running it in the Lowther?
Isn’t York more of a Speed track compared to Ascot? Fair Eva had a bit of a habit of starting slow? Dettori and Moore, who rode her earlier suggest that she needed 7f ?
They are not running Time Test in next month’s Champion Stakes either.
In what has been described as a “Frustrating Year” for the horse, it was revealed that Time Test is “On Holiday” at the moment. It’s a hard life eh?
They have no plans for when or where the horse will run next. Nobody seems to know whether he will stay in the UK or go to America.
As far as I am concerned, the horse just isn’t good enough and they are looking for weak black type to put on his CV. Every time something half decent looks like running, the “Fluttering of the clapper valve” commences and the retreat flag is run up the pole.
It seems to be a very poor state of affairs when all these targets are being missed and they don’t even have any targets now. Whatever happened to Plan B? They don’t even have a bloody Plan A now
If Juddmonte want a Group 1, any Group 1 out of Time Test, and , that is no guaranteed, send him to Chad Brown in the US. Alternatively, drop the loyalty to Charlton (Juddmonte have always been loyal to most of their trainers) and send him to Gosden or Stoute (even then, there is no guarantee)
I would not mind, but Charlton has done well this season, especially with the other Juddmonte horses, bar his mistake with Fair Eva – and two top class jockeys had publicly expressed a view that 6f was not suitable
They are not running Time Test in next month’s Champion Stakes either.
In what has been described as a “Frustrating Year” for the horse, it was revealed that Time Test is “On Holiday” at the moment. It’s a hard life eh?
They have no plans for when or where the horse will run next. Nobody seems to know whether he will stay in the UK or go to America.
As far as I am concerned, the horse just isn’t good enough and they are looking for weak black type to put on his CV. Every time something half decent looks like running, the “Fluttering of the clapper valve” commences and the retreat flag is run up the pole.
It seems to be a very poor state of affairs when all these targets are being missed and they don’t even have any targets now. Whatever happened to Plan B? They don’t even have a bloody Plan A now
If Juddmonte want a Group 1, any Group 1 out of Time Test, and , that is no guaranteed, send him to Chad Brown in the US. Alternatively, drop the loyalty to Charlton (Juddmonte have always been loyal to most of their trainers) and send him to Gosden or Stoute (even then, there is no guarantee)
I would not mind, but Charlton has done well this season, especially with the other Juddmonte horses, bar his mistake with Fair Eva
Just for a change Time Test has been pulled out of a big race.
The excuse this time is that the horse is “Having a break”
This is getting all too predictable and it’s time to admit that the horse just isn’t as good as was first mooted in some places.
Having a break from what? Unfortunate this season, travelling to Ireland no race, train and no ride at Ascot, fail to show it at York but still won to a subsequent Group 1 winner
hmm, there still might be time for him, if he is kept on next year, at least in Group 1’s like Tattersals at the Curragh, ground permitting and early Group 1’s in France, Canadian Pattison, another stab at Eclipse depending on what 3 year olds are going and of course the Princess of Wales. Maybe even Hong Kong. Twice Over only started to win Group 1’s after 4. There are is best bets as a Group 1 in England will be hard to get since they are convinced that he is not a miler
He definitely had no business going to Ireland with that huge weight allowance to deal with and his stop start season . If ground permitting (new track opened at Ascot) perhaps he has a chance at the British Champion Stakes if good ground?
I thought they might have sent him to Arlington, just as well as the ground became soft there.
Paddy have opened a book and make Minding the 7/4 fav
What’s the likelihood that she’ll drop back to mile.? I can’t see it myself.
Aiden surprisingly hasn’t got a very good record in this with only Lillie Langtry winning for him in 2010.
Qemah is set to run in this and I’ve taken the 5/2 on her. She settled much better in the last race than what she did earlier in the season and should be hard to beat. The biggest danger is I don’t trust filly’s at that time of year, the form seems to get thrown out of the window.Almost the same route as David Wachman’s Legatissmo last year , bar competing in the Irish 1000 which was never the plan. I wonder will it be Matron and then Breeders Cup? Hardly the fillies and mares race?
She actually might be a proper contender for the Arc . His record in the Irish Champions Stakes ain’t great lately either.He might as well not turn up to the Arc with any of his colts. Must have plans for Found
Surely in spite of all their big-race wins the biggest underachievers, by far, given the amount that they have invested are the Maktoum family?
In a similar vein, Mr O’Brien can often have 3 or 4 runners in a big race. I could tip that many per race and I’d get loads of winners but it wouldn’t make me a good tipster. I’m not belittling him, clearly the guy is very good at what he does and the vast majority of us couldn’t do it in a month of Sundays but does he really warrant the amount that some racing media are up his backside? Or is he in fact still overachieving relative to the vast resources he has available to him?
Hmm interesting
But, how many “second string” horses win big races? Look at the Oaks in 2015 or the Yorkshire Oaks in 2014 (she was a good horse but suspected to be a bit finished – alas people put it down to an error on Paul Hanigan’s part). Ryan Moore was ridding for Coolmore since about 2011ish. Many of his wins for O’Brien (outside of Breeders Cup and rides on So You Think) prior to the official signing was on so called second string horses eg Snow Queen 2012 Guineas. Although I backed Ruler of the World in 2013 for the Derby, price and being the only one to have won at 12f, he was “second string”
Sometimes you just can’t be sure which of yours will win, might as well throw them all in. While I was always prepared to draw a line in Magician’s (Irish Guineas) run at Ascot as O’Brien said he injured himself , few would have expected him to pip The Fauge in the Breeders Cup in 2013 after being so long out.
If he can’t get them winning in Ireland or the UK, they don’t do too badly in the US or even , recently, Australia. Winning the Cox’s Plate is no mean feat – Adelaide (also won in the US and bar badish ride from O’Donoghue should have won a second US Group 1). Some of those in the English Derby might go on and win the Irish Classics. Order of St George looked like a bit of a disappointment early last year and he tore them up in the Irish St Leger and did well to win the Ascot Gold Cup this year (Moore admitted he rode him badly)
Considering he has been Champion Trainer in Britain multiple times, while based in Ireland and having it’s own programme there, I am not sure that it is underachieving. Horses are not machines after all.
I am pleased with myself that I put a small punt on O’Brien to be champion trainer in March, solely based on the fact that Moore would probably encourage him to bring over more of his horses for early and mid group 2 and 3 races , outside of Ascot, that he might not normally bother with. Gosden was looking good at the start of the Season. O’Brien has passed the 5 million mark and it is not even September and he “only” won two classics so far and no Derby – He was still comfortably in the lead before the King George and a nice prize second in the International.
To be fair to O’Brien, Ascot 2015 saw him being more selective in what horses he would run and stuck to one horse one race.Not all of his will be Group 1 winners, but many can at least do well to check prestigious Group 2 and 3’s . The only thing that is missing from his cv is a few more Group 1s in the sprinting division. Wachman appeared to have been Coolmore’s speedster trainer for a while.
Look at the Derby this year, it was noted that O’Brien’s colts last year and this year weren’t great compared to his fillies. (exclude Gleneagles and Air Force Blue – talking about Derby contenders) Yet, since the Irish trials in March had softish ground he took some of his to England, his horse won the Lingfield Trial, came close in the Dante, and two of his horses were 1-2 in the other Derby trial at Chester. Not bad, 2 out of 3
Still way better than Godolpin when they use to throw a few in (bar the Irish Champions Stakes in 2001 of course lol)
One man stands head and shoulders above everyone else in the National Hunt game.
I’d say that Alan King isn’t too far behind; plenty of promising young horses but very few of them ever go on to top accomplishments.
Surely that’s because he overraces a lot of them. Katchit is a good example, had a great early career and faded after that.
Johnston is similar on the flat, does very well in terms of number of winners but how many geninuely great horses has he trained? Attraction was arguably one.
But because of the way he trains, he does very well with two year olds, especially ones that can take a lot of racing. Kilmah is a good example, but I can’t see her doing much at three, because he’s already “Killed” her (excuse the pun.)
I can’t stand Mark Johnson. Es que Love might never have been a world beater but the summer of 2013 was ridiculous. He ran some mighty races and lost out a few handicaps by very little eg Bunbury Cup 2013. He was sent out to run almost every Saturday for the whole summer. Often in big handicaps with big weights and rarely using an apprentice. Came no where. If he was given a little rest time he might have won a big prestious handicap. Look at his race history, almost running every week. The owners sent him to Clive Cox the following summer and low and be hold he places twice in group 2 and 3 races and then gets a Group 2 at Goodwood (Lennox) against Toormore, a 3 year old
Then there is Fire Fighting, Sennockian Star,
At least he gave some chance to Hartnell, Bow Creek, and Lumiere,the former went off to Australia and won a Group 1
Try for the Japan World Cup , about two or so weeks after the Breeders.? While former David Lanigan’s Main Sequence turned into a solid Group 1 winning horse in the US, and bet Flintshire in the Breeders Cup, I would wait and see who from Europe is going to be sent to that Turf race. ? Funny how the Americans are falling over for Flintshire, who is a fine horse, but he was always a bit of a bridesmaid under Fabre (I exclude the 2015 Arc, he was super and not expected to be that good – had him each way)
Most racing books, like sporting books in general, are pretty dire, tough reads even for die-hard fans.
Autobigraphies are mainly ghost-written by racing hacks of no great literary abilities, and biographies tend to be more like hagiographies with anything controversial carefully sidestepped.
My three against the field that I posted on the best books thread – Seabiscuit, Men and Horses I have known, Sods I have cut on the turf – were all written by the people whose names appear on the dustjackets.
Scott Brough was very snooty in Henry Cecil’s book. Maybe he was just channeling the attitudes of the racing people. Far more interesting in waffling on by the high society and pointless moments in history .Often, as entertaining as some of his antidotes were, it felt like the book was about the author and his experiences rather than Cecil. It does not really talk about how Cecil was so successful, suppose no trainer wants to give away their secrets – to be fair he was busy with his horses – and maybe it is hard to describe. Cecil was right, it was pretty boring. A lot of fawning over Frankel. Whatever people think of Tom Queally, he is barely mentioned in the book unlike some of the other jockeys who had a chapter or two named after them. Tom did help Cecil win over 20 group 1’s, would have been a few more had he more experierance and confidence eg 1000 Guineas on Jacqueline’s Request, Coronation on Midday. Only a glancing reference to Middday’s win at the Breeders Cup, Cecil’s first win there.
What is even more interesting is that Arrogat is not home bred. It is a bit unusual for Juddmonte to go to the sales, the horses they have are often children of one of their sires or broodmares. Just as well because their two sires in the US , First Defence and Mizzen Mast have not been great and they are getting on a bit.Only 4 races he has already paid for his purchase price.
Good Topic
For me, in Ireland, it has to be owner, Barry Connell. A decent man, had promises to donate all of the prize money expected of Our Conor , to the injured jockeys fund. Sadly, that horse barely made it to the 3rd hurdle in the 2014 Cheltenham Champions Hurdle. He also pulled his horse out of running in 2014 because he was trained by a certain trainer who would being questioned for a raid on his stable . Others continued to run their horses trained by the said trainer, that took balls.
He has spent a fortune on horses, but sends them to trainers that would not exactly scream success. Shame Dessie Hughes is no longer around.
Rumours being made that John Hunt might be the main commentator for itv, not sure he would want to commit to it though he does a lot of other commentaries ie swimming.
Whatever happened to Jim McGrath (the Aussie not the lad on Channel 4)?
