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Marienbard won an Arc after running in a Melbourne Cup and Yorkshire Cup and Ascot Gold Cup so it is not impossible for Order of St George but looks improbable to me!!
What do you call “improbable” Raymo?
Does OOSG have a good chance of winning? imo No.
Is it improbable? Yes.
But OOSG only needs a less than 94% chance of losing to be worth a bet – ie better than 16/1..
imo he stands around a 90 or 91% chance of losing – a fair 9/1 or 10/1 so imo is worth a bet.Value Is EverythingDo you not think he’ll run in the long distance at Ascot on Champions Day, Ginge?
Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
Not to cut across Gingertipster, but I can’t see them bothering with a G2. I could only see them using a G2 as a prep race for a G1, and there isn’t anything for him after that race.
Over the years it looks to me as if the Arc has become a race for 3-y-o fillies to win, preferably trained in France. Minding looks the best proven filly, but stats show a previous run at Longchamp and trained in France fares the best, this is why I believe that on the day La Cressonniere will prevail.
Stop dreamin’ of OOSG and Postponed
Best Wishes
SilkOrder of St. George may not be the likeliest winner, but it would be ridiculous to write him off surely. He has not just been winning, he’s been hacking up, and remains completely unexposed at both Staying and Middle distances.
I certainly would not be offering 50/1 as Mr. Caution suggested his price perhaps should be greater than.
Thanks to Stilvi for putting me on to Order Of St George. I’ve looked through the form and 16/1 or 14’s looks to under-estimate his chance.
Some may be against him for being an Ascot Gold Cup winner, but not many Gold Cup winners have gone for the race, of those that do they’ve got a good record of going close. Order Of St George shows more speed than your average Gold Cup winner.
Some might be against him on the evidence of not beating top class animals. But he didn’t just beat them, he won the GC by 3 lengths having had to wait for gaps and not all out so deserves to be rated as winning by further. Every reason to believe Mizzou improved, having at last had a complete test of stamina. Sheikhzayadroad 3rd was beaten 5 1/4 lengths, only beaten 1 1/2 by Big Orange in the Goodwood Cup next time. 5.25 – 1.5 = 3.75. Had Order Of St George also been an easy 3 3/4 lengths winner of Goodwood and the Princess Of Wales Group 2 at Newmarket. Comes out a 6 1/4 lengths better horse than The Grey Gatsby on a form line through Big Orange and Sheikhzayadroad. 6 3/4 better than Newmarket 3rd Exosphere. Latter only beaten 4 1/2 by Postponed in the International. Now, I don’t believe some of those form lines, for one thing need to take account of a length over 2m4f being worth less in pounds than 1m4f or 1m2f… and some would’ve improved in between races. But at least it shows the form is working out better than some (who only look at winners when it comes to form) believe. As well as the above, the horses Sheikzayadroad beat in to 3rd at Goodwood included 4th Wicklowe Brave and 6th Quest For More. Former should’ve beaten the latter in Lonsdale Cup if it wasn’t for temperament/pace in the race; the two separated by Goodwood second Pallasator. Order Of St George is considerably better than the rest of the stayers. Won prep race for the Irish St Leger (Group 3) giving away a load of weight with ease. That his 6th win in a row! Knows how to win and could well pull out more if needed.
Of his other races:
Had been beaten a short head by subsequent English St Leger second Bondi Beach in the Curragh Cup, but that was his first run of that season – missed the Derbys so we don’t exactly know what he can do at 1m4f. Improved to win his classic; last year’s Irish St Leger with a performance a whole lot better than Doncaster’s (Bondi Beach/Simple Verse) version. Won By 11 lengths from Agent Murphy.All in all, I believe Order Of St George deserves to be a lot closer to Postponed in the market.
What a pity Big Orange may not run in the Irish St Leger. Might be up his street. Would be interesting to see how good Order of St George is at 14 f (yes, he destroyed the field last year, poor auld Brown Panther ran his last race but other than him, there wasn’t many daycent horses in that race)
Over the years it looks to me as if the Arc has become a race for 3-y-o fillies to win, preferably trained in France. Minding looks the best proven filly, but stats show a previous run at Longchamp and trained in France fares the best, this is why I believe that on the day La Cressonniere will prevail.
Stop dreamin’ of OOSG and PostponedSurely though we have to ignore the stats a little as this Arc shall be at Chantilly? There is always French Derby Winner of 2015, New Bay (yes, he is a colt and 4). Though, we have to see how he performs at Leopardstown at the Irish Champions Stakes. Not sure he really is a 12 f horse either.
As you know, Danedream was German trained, and she proved that her Arc win in 2011 was no fluke by winning the King George the following year and shaping up to run in the 2012 edition of the Arc.
Postponed definitely does not have a gimme
Do you not think he’ll run in the long distance at Ascot on Champions Day, Ginge?
One thing important in ante-post betting is (as you imply) realising horses at what seems a value price are often only at that price because it takes in to account likelihood of running. That’s a particular problem with Coolmore. I could be wrong (often am) but…
I’d expect OOSG to run and win the Irish St Leger with a good deal to spare before going for the Arc. Is fav for Ascot, race may be worth a good deal but is only a Group 2. Unless AOB needs the prizemoney to be Champion trainer, I’d have thought it unlikely OOSG would run. Particularly so when stable companion Bondi Beach is currently second fav and they’ve also got Sword Fighter. Plus, I can see it really suiting three year old Housesofparliament if turning up/unsuccessful on Saturday.
Where as for the Arc, who’s going to run for Ballydoyle?
US Army Ranger has had an interupted preperation and disappointed last time – 25/1 and almost double that on exchanges – looks a doubtful runner.
Minding is as low as 6/1 but as high as 10/1 with bookmakers. If turning up latter price would seem generous, but has other possible targets against her own sex. Available @ 16.5/1 on betfair with nobody lining up (999/1 on the pink end). Seems an unlikely runner at this stage.
Seventh Heaven would imo be a very interesting runner if getting her ground, however she’s currently available @ 41/1 – unlikely.
Found is a possibility, seems to come to herself this time of year and nowt wrong with the Yorkshire Oaks run, although having said that – doesn’t seem to be improving. Arguably ran better in the Champion than Arc last year, could see her running well, but winning it? 20/1 suggests she’ll be one to represent Coolmore, but think they’ll want something better running for them.
Highland Reel seems to have other targets and currently 119/1 – unlikely.
Will Idaho double up St Leger and Arc. He’s good but not that good and is 45/1 – unlikely.Unless the fragile US Army Ranger comes on a massive amount in a short space of time… Order Of St George and Found look the most likely runners to me.
Value Is EverythingOne negative probably worth mentioning in respect of Order Of St George is his tendency to sweat-up before his races. So far he hasn’t boiled over and it hasn’t stopped him winning but if he gets the green light the preliminaries for the Arc would present a much bigger test.
It seems Found is probably going to go but I would be surprised if she makes much impact. She has raced four times over the trip and been well beaten on three occasions. Yes, the other one was a victory over Golden Horn in the Breeders Cup but I would question the value of that form given the standard of the horses that finished close behind. For me she seems very unlikely to suddenly find 7lbs and is probably better over a shorter trip.
That top-class stayer Westerner finished second to Hurricane Run in the 2005 Arc and, going back further, the mighty Ardross just failed to reel in Akiyda in 1982. Both of those stayers were far better horses than Order Of St George and, even allowing for this year’s renewal being weaker than either of those two Arcs, there’s little chance of the current Gold Cup holder emulating his predecessors, let alone going one better.
I couldn’t remember Westerner that well so I looked him up on the Racing Post site. They gave him a rating of 129. Order Of St George is currently 125. Is that really far better? Westerner didn’t win any Group race until the end of his 4yo season. He then won the Cadran at 10/1 (the mighty Mr Dinos started 8/11). Westerner went on to run second in the Arc as a 6yo but at the comparable stage of their careers Order Of St George would actually be the better animal by a fair margin.
Just for the record the Racing Post have Postponed on 126.
Order of St. George may not be the likeliest winner, but it would be ridiculous to write him off surely. He has not just been winning, he’s been hacking up, and remains completely unexposed at both Staying and Middle distances.
I certainly would not be offering 50/1 as Mr. Caution suggested his price perhaps should be greater than.
Leaving aside his obvious bravado neither would Mr Caution. Unless you knew for sure he wasn’t running nobody in their right mind would offer 50/1.
Your first paragraph is a very accurate summation.
…but at the comparable stage of their careers Order Of St George would actually be the better animal by a fair margin.
What’s that got to do with the price of fish? At the time of their Arc runs (assuming that Order Of St George does, indeed, head for the great race), Westerner was a better horse than the O’Brien charge.
By your own admission, you don’t remember the French horse; I do. He had a top-class turn of foot for a stayer. I’m not saying that Order Of St George is a slouch, not by any means, but he wouldn’t have seen which way Westerner went if they ever clashed. And Ardross would have laughed at both of them.
If neither Ardross (whose Timeform rating was, incidentally, 134) nor Westerner (TF 130) was capable of winning an Arc, I just can’t see how their inferior modern counterpart can… unless it’s an extremely weak renewal, which it may be.
Think you are over-praising Westerner more than a bit – used to bash-up similar opposition in the mud in France, but wasn’t really anything but an average Gold Cup winner over here was he? Lucky to keep that race (at York) too after blatant ear-plug cheating when beating Stouties dour stayer Distinction a neck.
RPR’s have Westerner’s best effort only 4lb ahead of OOSG’s currently. Seems reasonable to me. OOSG surely a certainty to be capable of a higher rating of more than 4lb when needing it, cruising home by streets with a mixture of “Impressive”, “Comfortable”, and “Easily” over his last six races. I’d wager he will retire officially a superior stayer than Westerner given chance.
If they wanted Order of St George to have a proper Group 1 ran over 12 furlong win on his cv he’d have run him in the King George…??
It would have been an easier task than this and given them an inkling or better idea of how he’d fair in this.Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
I’d wager he will retire officially a superior stayer than Westerner given chance.
Whilst it’s perfectly possible that we have yet to see the best of Order Of St George, and that he’s almost certainly capable of a higher rating (especially if taking on a higher calibre of opposition), I’ll be astonished if he ever surpasses Westerner’s Timeform rating.
Order of St. George may not be the likeliest winner, but it would be ridiculous to write him off surely. He has not just been winning, he’s been hacking up, and remains completely unexposed at both Staying and Middle distances.
I certainly would not be offering 50/1 as Mr. Caution suggested his price perhaps should be greater than.
Leaving aside his obvious bravado neither would Mr Caution. Unless you knew for sure he wasn’t running nobody in their right mind would offer 50/1.
Your first paragraph is a very accurate summation.
I am saying I wouldn’t TAKE 50/1 and that’s absolutely true.
I reckon Order Of St George is in the race because Aidan has a very moderate bunch of 3yo colts this season. You wouldn’t be getting your panties wet about US Army Ranger winning the Arc and he’s probably Aidan’s best 3yo colt at the trip. With Highland Reel sitting at 33/1, you have to think the Arc isn’t on his agenda.
Found has hardly been stellar this season and I can’t see her winning this but I’d still take her over Order Of St George.
I feel Minding is Aidan’s best shot at winning this and he would probably love if US Army Ranger could win it to bolster his status.
There are just too many horses I prefer ahead of Order Of St George here.
I don’t fancy him at all and that’s the end of the story. I don’t know why anyone can have such a chip on their shoulder just because someone doesn’t fancy a horse that they do.
That’s all part of the build up to a race and the chance is then there for someone to celebrate their thinking when their horse wins and enjoy the other party with egg on their face eating the humble pie.
I’ve seen every Arc De Triomphe since 1979 and I actually picked Three Troikas purely based on the name that year and my Father sat opened-mouthed after telling me it was 33/1 and that fillies don’t win the Arc. A pure fluke that one but watching the race that many times since I have my views on what it takes to win the race. I had Golden Horn at 8/1 for it last year, so obviously, occasionally, it can be possible to spot the winner.
I just can’t have Order Of St George and if I am wrong, I’ll be the first to admit I made a balls of it.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Over the years it looks to me as if the Arc has become a race for 3-y-o fillies to win, preferably trained in France. Minding looks the best proven filly, but stats show a previous run at Longchamp and trained in France fares the best, this is why I believe that on the day La Cressonniere will prevail.
Stop dreamin’ of OOSG and PostponedSurely though we have to ignore the stats a little as this Arc shall be at Chantilly? There is always French Derby Winner of 2015, New Bay (yes, he is a colt and 4). Though, we have to see how he performs at Leopardstown at the Irish Champions Stakes. Not sure he really is a 12 f horse either.
As you know, Danedream was German trained, and she proved that her Arc win in 2011 was no fluke by winning the King George the following year and shaping up to run in the 2012 edition of the Arc.
Postponed definitely does not have a gimme
Well the Longchamp stat would not have been i favour for La Cressonniere (Ballydoyle won a Gr. 1 there) but the Chantilly course is winning there twice latest the Prix de Diane(Gr.1). Danedream had raced at Longchamp as a 2-y-o
Best Wishes
Silk
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