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I just finished watching and listening to a live interview with Nigel Farage on CNBC in the US. I’m actually speechless (that’s why I’m writing instead) to what he had to say not only about the Russia-Ukraine conflict but also about China.
The interview began with the host commending Nigel who, in 2014, warned Ukraine not have any NATO aspirations and stop poking the “Russian bear” with a big stick. Nigel explicitly stated on national American television that NATO is the blame for Russia’s invasion because NATO promised back in 1991, following the fall of the Soviet Union, that it would not seek further expansion east beyond Germany’s borders. Moreover, he called Joe Biden “weak” for his unilateral withdrawal from Afghanistan and Putin used Biden’s weakness to his advantage. A co-host (Democratic leaning), quickly interjected and opined that Trump is to blame for being close with Putin, blah, blah, blah. Would like to know how Nigel responded? He intimated that if Trump was in power this invasion would not have happened. And here’s why: he said that he has “proof that when Trump and Xi met face to face, Trump told Xi that if he moves on Taiwan than Trump would bomb Beijing”!!!! This, on US national television….
If one looks at the financial markets (equity, bond, currency) during the period of build up to the invasion and during the invasion itself it does suggest that the ‘worst’ outcome so far has been fully priced in by the markets; hence, the extreme volatility , not seen since March 2020, has subsided and the market bounced back significantly. So, any speculation of “potential” Finland invasion is most premature, at least according to the markets. The worst may be over, if you believe the markets.
CAS:
“I believe Putin wants to keep this localised and to get it over with quickly. He knows if he does there is next to no chance of NATO getting involved.”
Good thinking…
Some believe that he will leave eventually, but not before installing a puppet government.
Ukrainian president (Volodymyr Zelensky) orders ‘full military mobilization’ to counter attack.
Really? It’s a bit early, don’t you think? Wait a while, EU/NATO will take care of business for you. In fact, the rest of the world is prepared to bleed for you. You ***** stooge of a president and a leader! Why couldn’t you prepare your nation for such eventuality? NATO/EU were mobilizing weeks ago to help you!
Good points Ben Ian and BigG. I firmly believe that Putin is getting a lot more respect from EU/NATO in the context who he is and his capabilities than what he’s getting from some of the TFRs here.
This geopolitical situation is slowly turning into a chess match. And Russians are very, very good at chess! So, how do you handicap this man over the next 1, 2, 3, or even 12 months? It’s very difficult to say, and I’m by no means any sort of foreign affairs expert, but I would wager a small token that Putin is prepared to wait this situation out. Just like when Russia annexed Crimea with no shots fired, Putin’s move to recognize the independence of (Ukraine’s) Donetsk and Luhansk regions and then send his troops on a “peacekeeping” mission, again without a shot being fired, is not “stupid” by any stretch of imagination. Moreover, it could be argued, that his timing was well calculated and very strategic. Calculated in the context of minimal fallout: see the sanctions imposed by the West following Crimea. Any idea of the true economic and social impact? Well, the country certainly is still standing. And, what about the current round of sanctions? A few banks and oligarchs and limiting trading in Russian sovereign debt certainly is not going to bankrupt the country and bring their citizens to their knees, will it? if Nato/EU really wanted to hurt Russia economically then why not cut-off their total access to SWIFT? Well, this can’t be done, you see, because how else will the Western bankers receive interest and principal payments on Russia foreign currency-denominated debt? They wouldn’t. They would get stiffed, plain and simple. And what about the German “bombshell” of a sanction: halting the approval process for the Nord Stream 2 pipeline. That should be vey painful for not only Putin but also Russia, indeed. After all, this pipeline has been around since last year and still not monetized. Russia’s only loss will be an opportunity cost, nothing more. The same loss applies to Germany. But, what about the big question? The one the media refuses to ask: if you really want to hurt Russia economically, then why not stop buying Russia’s gas with immediate effect, notwithstanding any contractual issues? After all, it adds up to 40% of Western Europe’s gas needs. This is where Putin’s/Russia’s strategic thinking comes into play. Years ago, despite repeated warnings from Western allies, Germany and other European countries didn’t diversify their supply sources and went ahead with mostly a single biggest source: Russia. And now, in the middle of dead winter, they are totally dependent on Russian gas. That’s why, in my view, Putin chose February following the conclusion of Winter Olympics as the most appropriate time to invade Ukraine. Any time sooner would be seen by the Chinese as “pissing on their parade” and stealing their positive exposure. Invasion now limits (or eliminates) Western Europe’s ability to cut-off Russia’s gas. No way would Germany, or other countries which are dependent on Russia’s gas, let their citizens freeze! Putin knows this and is using this to his advantage. He also knows that the longer he waits and establishes a base in eastern Ukraine without taking any further military action, news coverage will wane. Biden, Boris, Macron, and Schulz have domestic issues to worry about both economic and political. For instance, Boris has his domestic issues as does Biden whose popularity has plummeted in the polls. In addition, in a few months, mid-term elections are coming up. So how much time can these leaders really devote to Ukraine?
This leads me to my final point: if the West really wanted to deter Putin from invading Russia, then why didn’t they take the opportunity a month or so ago to fast track the approval process and accept Ukraine into NATO? This could have been done, given the political will power, with a stroke of a pen! An invasion on one is an invasion on all. In my view, Putin would have had second thoughts. But, why didn’t the West take this step?….
“I long for One World government…”
I remember writing an essay on that idealistic concept many, many moons ago! I then believed that it could be possible, along with creating one world currency, in order to prevent endless wars. Needless to say, the teacher thought that I was “too idealistic”, and pointed out that I shouldn’t be going about and talking about such issues because some people may misunderstand and think that I’m a young socialist! Huh? Barely got a passing mark for my efforts….
“The world faces bigger ongoing global issues than who a lump of landmass (Ukraine) should belong to.”
No doubt, the world today faces many big challenges and it’s debatable which are the biggest over the short-term and the long-term. Obviously, the COVID-19 epidemic has been the biggest concern over the last two years.
However, “the lump of landmass (Ukraine)” has over 43 million people living there. To reduce this fact to mere irrelevancy (ah well, the world has bigger problems to worry about so who cares?) is a failure to have learnt from an extremely painful lesson which had occurred less than 100 years ago: the issue of “Sudentenland” in 1938 Nazi Germany.
But, then again, an anonymous scholar once quipped: “the only thing that history teaches us, is that it doesn’t teach us anything”
I totally understand your point, BigG. Although I can’t confirm who proposed the idea of Ukraine declaring itself to be totally independent and neutral to avoid potential war breaking out, the merit of this idea is not the issue. What’s most important at this stage is dialogue and give diplomacy a chance…
There’s a recent idea floating around that would have Ukraine declare itself to be totally independent and, as such, to not seek membership in NATO/EU.
What appears to be some final efforts by NATO/EU to avoid any crises are planned calls today between Biden and Putin and Macron and Putin. Warnings were given by countries for the citizens and diplomats to leave Ukraine immediately. This sense of panic/urgency is in stark contrast to the attitude of Ukrainian people, especially their government which apparently didn’t issue any warnings of an impending invasion. They continue to carry on “business as usual”. Are they just plain complacent or do they know something that the outside world doesn’t?
Clive,
“…the little man hero of the trumps le pens farages and mentally ill far left of this world”
For a different viewpoint, you may consider watching this presentation (“How the U.S. Created Vladimir Putin”) given by Vladimir Pozner at Yale University in 2018.
“The Causes and Consequences of the Ukraine Crises”, a lecture given by Prof. John Mearsheimer at the University of Chicago in 2015 is most prophetic! If anything, it certainly puts the current events in a proper contextual framework, not what you hear and read in the mainstream media.
GT,
“…But tbh I don’t think Russia or USA or China will ever use nuclear – although possibly by accident.”
Well said. It’s the accidental launch of nuclear missiles that people fear most.
Jorge Navarro, one of the key conspirators in the doping case, has been sentenced on Friday to 5 years in prison. Plus he must pay $26 million in restitution for his crimes.
It’s sickening to read his admittance to having injected X Y Jet over 50 times with his drug called “monkey”. X Y Jet died in January 2020….
“Structures designed for the protection of the horses abused in this case failed repeatedly; fixtures of the industry – owners, veterinarians, and trainers – flouted rules and disregarded their animals’ health while hypocritically incanting a love for the horses under their control and ostensible protection,” U.S. attorney Damian Williams said in a release from the Department of Justice. “Standing as the keystone for this structure of abuse, corruption, and duplicity was Jorge Navarro, a trainer who treated his animals as expendable commodities.”
A picture does tell a 1000 words! The label on the sign post appears to be a misnomer which may lead to jumping to wrong conclusions. We need more context, but the buckets could be there for stable staff to use to water horses?
“As a keen going sort I can see the American style of racing really suiting yibir”
FF, you recall that was your suggestion for the Jockey Club Derby Invitation at Belmont back in September. Good handicapping…
No issue, GT. Your points are well taken, and clearly understood.
My main point is that by adding more BC races created new opportunities for smaller yards to run for big purses. For instance, I don’t feel that Glass Slippers would have been entered in the 6F dirt sprint to take on top American dirt sprinters. I like her, she’s good but, let’s face it, she’s no Dayjur. Instead, she got an opportunity to compete in the recently added 5F Turf sprint, won, and connections got a nice purse. I think it’s a win-win on all sides…
I also am critical of Breeders Cup not following in the footsteps of Churchill Downs and banning Bob Baffert from participating. But, his days are numbered. His winner (Corniche) in the BC Juvenile, unfortunately, will not qualify to earn points for next year’s Kentucky Derby. So, what do you think the ownership group will do? Move him to another trainer. This horse is already an early favorite. Probably, other owners will follow suit. Unlike the family-owned Santa Anita where Baffert dictates the terms and gets a free pass at everything that he does, Churchill Downs is a 8-9 billion-dollar corporation whose shares are traded on the New York Stock Exchange. They will not allow the likes of Baffert (or anyone else) to tarnish the brand and image of the Kentucky Derby. That’s their meal ticket…
As to the dilution of the meet, initially I was also a staunch opponent of doubling the number of races from 7 to 14. But, over time I came to embrace it and now fully support it. If one looks at the big picture, all these additional races provide opportunities for small racing yards and breeding operations to compete for multi-million dollar purse money which otherwise would not be available to them if the event was only limited to the original 7 races (5 dirt, 2 turf). As an example, take Friday’s $1 million BC Juvenile Sprint where David Loughnane’s Go Bears Go finished a close 2nd and the connections received $170k for the effort. I’m so impressed with this young man who was so genuinely happy and gracious in defeat. In the post-race interview he held himself with such class and dignity on such a world stage. Moreover, look at a couple more examples from last year. One of my all-time favorite images from the BC was when Audarya won the $2 million F&M Turf and the cameras shifted on James Fanshawe and his wife where they were standing alone and away from others and started hugging and kissing from sheer joy despite COVID and the world inflicted with misery. A few races before that one, Kevin Ryan’s Glass Slippers won the $1 million Turf Sprint and a brief footage showed people from a small town where the winner is based celebrating her victory. Where else could these small operations get such an opportunity? Let’s ask them how they feel? If the event was limited to 7 races, they would never get a chance. Instead, they got an economic shot in the arm…
