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Good points Ben Ian and BigG. I firmly believe that Putin is getting a lot more respect from EU/NATO in the context who he is and his capabilities than what he’s getting from some of the TFRs here.
This geopolitical situation is slowly turning into a chess match. And Russians are very, very good at chess! So, how do you handicap this man over the next 1, 2, 3, or even 12 months? It’s very difficult to say, and I’m by no means any sort of foreign affairs expert, but I would wager a small token that Putin is prepared to wait this situation out. Just like when Russia annexed Crimea with no shots fired, Putin’s move to recognize the independence of (Ukraine’s) Donetsk and Luhansk regions and then send his troops on a “peacekeeping” mission, again without a shot being fired, is not “stupid” by any stretch of imagination. Moreover, it could be argued, that his timing was well calculated and very strategic. Calculated in the context of minimal fallout: see the sanctions imposed by the West following Crimea. Any idea of the true economic and social impact? Well, the country certainly is still standing. And, what about the current round of sanctions? A few banks and oligarchs and limiting trading in Russian sovereign debt certainly is not going to bankrupt the country and bring their citizens to their knees, will it? if Nato/EU really wanted to hurt Russia economically then why not cut-off their total access to SWIFT? Well, this can’t be done, you see, because how else will the Western bankers receive interest and principal payments on Russia foreign currency-denominated debt? They wouldn’t. They would get stiffed, plain and simple. And what about the German “bombshell” of a sanction: halting the approval process for the Nord Stream 2 pipeline. That should be vey painful for not only Putin but also Russia, indeed. After all, this pipeline has been around since last year and still not monetized. Russia’s only loss will be an opportunity cost, nothing more. The same loss applies to Germany. But, what about the big question? The one the media refuses to ask: if you really want to hurt Russia economically, then why not stop buying Russia’s gas with immediate effect, notwithstanding any contractual issues? After all, it adds up to 40% of Western Europe’s gas needs. This is where Putin’s/Russia’s strategic thinking comes into play. Years ago, despite repeated warnings from Western allies, Germany and other European countries didn’t diversify their supply sources and went ahead with mostly a single biggest source: Russia. And now, in the middle of dead winter, they are totally dependent on Russian gas. That’s why, in my view, Putin chose February following the conclusion of Winter Olympics as the most appropriate time to invade Ukraine. Any time sooner would be seen by the Chinese as “pissing on their parade” and stealing their positive exposure. Invasion now limits (or eliminates) Western Europe’s ability to cut-off Russia’s gas. No way would Germany, or other countries which are dependent on Russia’s gas, let their citizens freeze! Putin knows this and is using this to his advantage. He also knows that the longer he waits and establishes a base in eastern Ukraine without taking any further military action, news coverage will wane. Biden, Boris, Macron, and Schulz have domestic issues to worry about both economic and political. For instance, Boris has his domestic issues as does Biden whose popularity has plummeted in the polls. In addition, in a few months, mid-term elections are coming up. So how much time can these leaders really devote to Ukraine?
This leads me to my final point: if the West really wanted to deter Putin from invading Russia, then why didn’t they take the opportunity a month or so ago to fast track the approval process and accept Ukraine into NATO? This could have been done, given the political will power, with a stroke of a pen! An invasion on one is an invasion on all. In my view, Putin would have had second thoughts. But, why didn’t the West take this step?….
We could have made a friend of Russia if we had been able to see beyond the Cold War rhetoric. Instead, NATO and the EU expanded eastwards, right up to Russia’s borders.
The removal of a pro-Russian President in Ukraine via an unconstitutional coup in 2014, cheered on by America and the EU, was not a bright idea either.
Putin is an authoritarian, a bully and a thug but he is not a fool. His grasp of realpolitik strikes me as far better than either Johnson or Biden.
It is not unreasonable for Russia to be worried about a hostile power expanding up to its borders, especially given recent history.
It is also hypocritical of America and Britain to condemn another country for its behaviour when they invaded Iraq in an illegal war and disastrously attacked Libya and Syria for no good reason.
“That’s because you can’t answer the points”.
It’s those reverting to insults instead of reason who give that impression, Clive.
In some ways Putin is an idiot, judged on him being a narcissist.
But he’s a bloody devious intelligent narcissist.Am sure many Russians would love to take back all the old Soviet / Eastern Bloc.
With Putin’s propaganda many Russians believe their leader, that these countries want a return to Russian influence.Value Is Everything“It is not unreasonable for Russia to be worried about a hostile power expanding up to its borders, especially given recent history”.
What “recent history”?
Russia is not in any danger from NATO.
Value Is EverythingHas Putin made a mistake?
Strangely… Under NATO rules a country can not join NATO if having conflicts within its borders.
So With existing problems in Donbas as I understand it the Ukraine could not join NATO.However, if Ukraine loses Donbas there is no longer conflict within its borders. Does that then mean Ukraine can join NATO?
Value Is EverythingWhat I meant was Russia has no defensible borders and was invaded to disastrous effect in the 20th century.
We might just dismiss it but I am not sure the Russian people do. Millions of their people died in WW2, most not combatants under arms.
That has to have an effect on a country’s mindset.
Is WWII “recent”?
It was Hitler / the Nazi’s who invaded Russia.
Not the “allies” / NATO.
Indeed so long ago, NATO did not exist and Russia was included in the “allies”.
Obviously Britain, America, Russia, were all on the same side in WWII.Value Is Everything“This leads me to my final point: if the West really wanted to deter Putin from invading Russia, then why didn’t they take the opportunity a month or so ago to fast track the approval process and accept Ukraine into NATO”?
No country can join NATO if there is internal conflict and even before the “invasion” there was conflict in Donbas.
It would also have been a massive gamble for NATO.
If they had done what you suggest, Turk; Putin may well have felt forced to declare war… And – as rules indicate – we’d have no choice but to use British, American, European etc forces to get Ukraine back.Value Is EverythingI’ve not read or contributed to this thread before now so my apologies if this has been stated previously.
CAS is quite correct,imo,of Putin but leaves out that he’s an old fashioned communist who’s still a stalinist at heart.It’s not the military of the west he fears but the ideology it’s quite frankly absurd to say he’s scared of NATO attacking Russia.
There’s one more idea I would like to throw into the mix to hear people’s opinion on and that’s Angela Merkel who was a good communist comrade before Germany was unified and could her stepping down be one of the reasons for what’s come about?I always felt their relationship was close as growing up in the same cold war era they were much more likely to understand the other.
Imagine if Labour had won the last general election and comrade Corbyn was PM,where would this country stand?
Just a thought.
good luck to allCertainly Angela trusted Putin more than any other NATO leader, BK.
True, suspicion is she spoke up for Putin in NATO conferences.
Russia to Germany fuel pipeline – being so reliant on Russia – was a terrible idea in the first place.I think those who say we should have a better relationship with Putin should realise there was a time when the “Cold War” ended when we did trust him more… And that has well and truly backfired on us.
Value Is Everything‘Imagine if Labour had won the last general election and comrade Corbyn was PM,where would this country stand?’
We’d have a governing party far less reliant on donations from Russia for a start.
“Is WWII “recent”?”
In historical terms, yes. It is within living memory for older Russians.
“It was Hitler / the Nazi’s who invaded Russia.
Not the “allies” / NATO.”I think the Russian people and their politicians dislike any force on their border they perceive to be hostile.
Would we like it if forces we saw as hostile were on the French coast? Would America like it if a power it saw as hostile was having military exercises in Mexico or Canada?
A Russian fellow once said to me “The mistake you guys in the West make is to presume that because we look like you, that we are the same as you”.
Fair point CAS,
We wouldn’t like it if France had weapons on its border pointed towards us; am sure Macron would love that! But there could be negotiation. (I mentioned one possible compromise earlier in the thread).
There are (or were) ways we could negotiate. However, now he’s made it extremely difficult for any negotiation as there can’t be reward for this type of behaviour.
Putin only has himself to blame, he’s made Ukraine want a worthwhile defence against Russia.
Russia can’t have a veto on what an independent nation wants / does.Value Is EverythingSome really, REALLY, interesting posts since my last one, especially from Turkoman (had to read it twice!) and CAS – GT’s take on it interesting too.
I have to say the sanctions didn’t sound like anything that would hurt Russia, but I am reading that is a ploy and bigger ones are being held back as “it is better to travel than arrive” with so much in this life.
I don’t “like” Putin, I’m not on “his side,” but the grown-up way to deal with this is to remember we’re not in a school playground, it’s not about liking or taking sides.
He’s one devious fella with a value system, and take on the world, many of us in the West couldn’t find more alien if he was a Martian.
Sometimes you can appease people without really giving them anything – nothing important, anyway.
I don’t mean Ukraine by that, btw!
But there still may be a way of negotiating our way out of all this.
Problem is, in a three-way Chess tournament, I’m betting: No Offers Putin, 7/4 Biden, any price you like Johnson!
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