Forum Replies Created
- Posts
ho hum rm,
that outside draw won’t have helped. Looked like a sound bet at the price though.
Hi rm – good luck with Safranine – definite chances, stiff finish will help her come late. Can certainly reverse form with Mary Jane.
<br>jw,
I’ve always thought 2 year olds would be an obvious place to specialise. As would the All Weather.
Personally I concentrate on the classier races – primarily Class C and above. Within that I try to avoid all 2 year old races, three year old handicaps, and races at 16f plus.
Over the jumps again C Class upwards, but avoiding novice hurdles, bumpers, and novice handicaps of either sort. I do however include juvenile hurdles and D class Novice Chases. I exclude 3m handicap hurdles.
For the most part B Class all aged handicaps of all types are where my methods work best. Including all those ‘impossible’ sprints!
My records show me where I’m successful or otherwise. Just another example of how keeping detailed records pays dividends.
belly,
I started with a bank of £2000, and my usual stake was just half per cent of my bank (ie a tenner to start with).
It’s gone on from there.
Personally, I’m a ‘value’ punter – but I’ve learnt a lot from books – Alan Potts, Nick Mordin, Mark Coton and Andrew Beyer. I’d suggest you start there.
A reality check though belly. I think I remember Alan Potts suggesting you should have a £50K bank, and your expenses covered for two years, before you turned pro.
You’d also need to know you could turn a profit!!
As larry says, the exchanges do offer new ways of looking at the game and that could speed the process up I guess. Or speed up losing your bank!
belly2002
There’s a few highly successfull pros on this forum.
I’m strictly a semi-pro wannabee, but I have to say I have a bank of £25000 built up over 6 years, and this year I’ll turn over £100000 to make between £10000 and £20000 with a good wind.
In other words be happy to make £500 on your bank over a year, with all the sweat and tears.
There’s no quick way. (Though I’m open to suggestions…)
venusian, these useless horses cost just as much to train as the greats – we pay our fees and just want Amelia to be able to run.
What was Monday all about – maidens made up the majority of the racing – who on earth in racing is in favour of that? And when all these poor maidens get handicap marks, what are they going to run in exactly?
apracing,
as an Amelia syndicate participant I’ll add to rory’s thoughts.
I was given some sage advice when I joined, by a professional gambler. He was dismissive of the syndicate, along the lines of the trainer and real owner ‘having it off big time’ when the syndicate’s back was turned. He said to me make sure you know what conditions suit and bet accordingly – forget the trainer’s hype etc.
It made a huge impression one me. I decided very early on (and syndicate members will bear this out), that the key to Amelia was a stiff 6f. A lucky guess for sure. But I wagered accordingly. So I love Amelia. Backed her once and once only, when I my gut instinct and my guide suggested she’d win, and when the market ignored her – perfect.
Betfair’s been good to me. I’ve gone from profitable punter to semi-pro (even with as many consecutive losers as Pricewise). I’m a wife’s dissaproval away from joining the full-time ranks.
But sometimes, some markets stink. Always have I guess, always will. Not my sort of markets as you say – lower grade markets, but if betfair is to be the new future let’s do something about the smelly ones?<br>
Great stuff.
robgomm, you seem keen to make a distinction between ‘true’ group 1 performers and some lesser group who have won group 1s but aren’t fit to wear the mantle of greatness you insist on in a Group 1 performer. Fair enough.
I suggest you need a new classification – Group Premiership(!) or Super Group 1 or something.
Take Zindabad – surely a solid, tough Group 2 horse. Not Group 1. Looking at the form prior to Saturday’s race you felt he’d give it a right good crack, almost certainly be placed, but just fall short of the required class. And indeed, he did run a cracker, particularly off that pace, but was found wanting for class.
So, if he’s rock solid Group 2 (and surely he is), then Golan and Nayef (proven Group 1 winners), must be Group 1 horses. World-beaters – I don’t know, you’re probably right – but definitely Group 1 horses.
Personally I love it when top race form is dismissed by the majority – it provides some great future bets. (Kazzia’s 1000 Guineas/Oaks for example). One or both of these could go on from here – maybe even all the way to the Premiership!. <br>
Aquaralliste for me – 9/1 or so still way too big in my book, (I have her at 5/1).
Yeah – where is Esc when we need him?
Thanks all – what about that!!
I can’t believe I wasn’t there.
We (I!) have been saying on here from day one that she needs a stiff 6 furlongs, so I hope a few of you had a little tickle.
That’s the second bottle of champagne this weekend!
Actually Esc, you’ve answered your own question.
"Form. Allied to statistics". In essence that’s all dosage theory is – another ‘statistical’ way of viewing the race, another factor to add to the mix.
For those of us who price up races it would be a factor to adjust our prices, just as say Trainer Course form does. You do ratings – same applies surely? In Sunday’s instance you may even have avoided going each way on Sulamani!!
On the other hand, one thing I’ve found fascinating in this thread (and brilliant postings all by the way) is that this dosage theory lark seems to lead to differing opinions.
Here’s Nick Mordin’s take in the Weekender (and after all he introduced me and no doubt thousands of others to dosage in the first place).
His qualifiers on dosage grounds:<br>Fight Your Corner<br>Moon ballad<br>Naheef<br>Tholjanah.
Apply his other winning trends and he comes up with:<br>Moon Ballad<br>Naheef
which at least should keep Mesh happy.
I’m very taken with suny bay’s notion as to why Kinane has chosen to side with a non-stayer – the other one’s not much good!!
Which seems to leave Fight Your Corner.
As long as Hawk Wing doesn’t win. (Though RM, nice one, I had to snaffle a bit of that Breeders Cup insurance).
It’s been raining hard all day in Tooting (6 miles from Epsom).
I laid Hawk Wing quite heavily on the basis he wouldn’t even turn up on Saturday. I’ve been sweating on it a bit lately – a bit relieved my rain dance seems to be working!
Thanks larry – especially about smartbet – very useful.
Don’t worry – I’ll stick with it every day I’m not working – at least until I’m in profit!!!
I have to say this is much trickier than it sounds (if you do actually locate the favourite as I failed to do in my haste yesterday!)
At Beverley the market had Polish Corridor fave, but it was a fluctuating market – especially on betfair with two other horses often being shorter – having to constantly switch between betfair and a window with bookie’s odds – I really struggled to lay at anything like decent odds, missing out in the end. It lost – unlayed.
Quickly over to Perth. Cambrian Dawn went off 3/1f. The lowest it ever was on betfair was 4/1. I was pretty pleased with myself to get the lowest price available – until it won in a driving photo finish. Obviously, now I think I should have sat it out at the odds.
Desmond Tutu in the last at Fontwell was much easier. 7/4f. Got 7/4 on betfair. Shame it won!
Right, I’ve jumped in with both feet.
I’ll let you know how it goes.
Naturally, my first lay yesterday was Karalinga Bay – won 9/2. Well 6s with me – as you can see I need practice at getting decent odds!! <br>
Yeah, I’ll stick up for Thommo as well.
OK, so he’s a twat, and that interview with AP at Cheltenham after his winner was squirmish beyond belief, but he’s plainly completely harmless. As long as you don’t phone his tipping line anyway.
And his commentaries are OK – let’s not forget how incredibly hard that must be.
He and John McCririck (sp?) are the butt of all the jokes on Channel 4, but frankly the supposed race-reading team of John ‘I’m only here for the smutty innuendoes’ Francome, Walter ‘I mincingly like the favourite me’ Swinburne, and ‘smug patronising hedge my bets’ McGrath tell us nothing original or compelling about the horses chances.
Mind you, thank God they’re not Willie ‘giggle about calling the horse the wrong name again’ Carson, and Peter ‘I’d name the winner in time for you to get on large if it wasn’t for this damned stammer’ Scudamore.
Of course if any of them browse this site – you all do a great job, and tell your producers to show us the horses finishing down the field instead of going close-up on the winner – most of us are straining to see if we’re still in the placepot.
