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Last Favourite Lay

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Viewing 15 posts - 46 through 60 (of 80 total)
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  • #39532
    larry layer
    Member
    • Total Posts 84

    April 17th

    Cheltenham 4.55 Joint Favs No Bet.

    Newmarket 5.10 Touch Light LAY £20 @ 4/1 LOST<br>BANK = £1988.75

    Beverly 5.15 Island Flight LAY £20 @ 4/1 LOST<br>BANK = £2008.75

    139 Plays, BANK UP £1008.75.  107 Wins, 32 Losses.

    #39533
    larry layer
    Member
    • Total Posts 84

    April 18th

    Ripon 4.45 Paddywack LAY £20 @ 9/2 LOST<br>BANK = £2028.75

    Cheltenham 4.55 Joint Favs No Bet.

    Newmarket 5.10 Western Verse LAY £20 @ 11/10 LOST<br>BANK = £2048.75

    141 Plays, BANK Up £1048.75.  109 Wins, 32 Losses.

    #39534
    RichK
    Participant
    • Total Posts 201

    Dear Ihaventalight,

    I’ve been following this system for a short while, and I might be able to help with a couple of the questions. I’m using Betfair, so all the answers are based on that, and I’m a true novice at working with P2P betting :

    a) I’m running at a lay of 5 quid per race, and I started with a bank of 25, which was far too low. On a couple of occasions I can’t get on because the liability is too high, and the bank has nearly been broken a couple of times, even though I’m showing a nice profit. so I’d say at least 4 or 5 hundred pounds.

    b) I’ve been laying quite close to the off, but through necessaity as I can’t get to a PC until about 5pm each day. The prices I’ve been laying at stack up with Larry’s odds that he’s posting though, so I think I’m doing ok.

    c) You can edit all unmatched bets, so yes you can lengthen your prices no problem.

    d) No, but you cannot be liable for more than your balance, and each time you offer a lay your available balance decreases – even if the bet hasn’t been matched. So you will need plenty in the bank on a busy day.

    e) No. It takes ages and is a real pain given my tiny initial bank. I’ve missed several races waiting for the bank to be updated. About 15 minutes usually.

    Good luck!

    (Edited by RichK at 11:18 am on April 19, 2002)

    #39536
    larry layer
    Member
    • Total Posts 84

    Hi guys,

    Good to have you along RichK and Ihaventalight.  Sadly I haven’t been doing this with real money, I wanted to test it on paper for a while first, I had a couple of reservations about it’s feasability before I started.  I knew the favourites in the last race of the day won less than all the others, and I know that if you were to back all of the last favourties to win you would only return approx 89% on your stakes over time, leaving an 11% margin… Think of it like this, the odds on the horse are usually (unless its a "good thing"!:biggrin: ) just below the actual probability of the horse winning – a profit margin is built in!….problem was, would offering above the odds prices (as you usually have to do) on the exchanges wipe out the margin?  I think we can say at the moment – no!  I do think that you will have periods of time where you won’t be making money on this but staying level, I think the system has had a good run since I began.

    To answer some of the questions myself…(I agree with RichK for the most part – thanks Rich!)

    a) a bank for £50 lay per race… I would advise at least £1,000.  I always like to play it safe when talking about bank sizes.  The bigger the better.  But consider that if you have a favourite that goes off at 11/2 and wins, thats £275 down straight away.  Its not beyond the realms of possibility that several could go in, in a row – they are favourites after all.

    b) As close to the off as you can.  Although I advise you spend a lot of time watching the character of the markets on Betfair and try to judge when the price will be at its lowest.  Load up some bookies prices in different windows, or smartbet.co.uk to keep a track of the prices.  It’s crucial you get the shortest price you possibly can.  If a price shortens, very often people will actually take an artificially short price as they get nervous about it shortening quickly.  And be QUICK with altering the price of your lays, there are traders on there that prey on your price being left on the screen for a split second too long… I know, because I’m one of them! :biggrin: Not usually on racing though.

    c)  As Rich says, you can constantly amend the price of your offer.  If a price is drifting and you know it, that is when you can make the best play – by offering your odds at the forefront of the betting…   (its all about getting your price to match the SP as closely as possible to keep the profit margin in tact, if you can consistently read the market you will make more money in the long run because your margin will be bigger.  This is the key to making the system as profitable as possible.)

    d)  A minimum bank on Betfair is £25.  You need ot have sufficient in your bank to cover your "exposure" – the amount you stand to lose if the horse wins.

    e)  As Rich said – it can take 15 minutes.  I believe settling markets on Betfair is the main cause of site slow down so they try to time it in times of lower activity… :biggrin: whether it works or not, erm…  hehehehe

    Im going to start using this system myself shortly.

    Lets hope it keeps going!  I may start another laying system soon, looking at some stats at the moment to see if its workable.

    (Edited by larry layer at 3:46 pm on April 20, 2002)

    #39543
    larry layer
    Member
    • Total Posts 84

    April 19th

    Thirsk 5.00 Sunley Scent LAY £20 @ 11/2 LOST<br>BANK = £2068.75

    Newbury 5.10 Gamut LAY £20 @ Evens WON<br>BANK = £2048.75

    Ayr 5.20 Ravenswood LAY £20 @ Evens WON<br>BANK = £2028.75

    144 Plays, BANK UP £1028.75. 110 Wins, 34 Losses.

    #39545
    larry layer
    Member
    • Total Posts 84

    April 20th

    Bangor 4.50 Felix Randall LAY £20 @ 13/8 LOST<br>BANK = £2048.75

    Ayr 5.10 Tollbrae LAY £20 @ 12/5 LOST<br>BANK = £2068.75

    Stratford 5.45 Druid’s Glen LAY £20 @ 6/4 WON<br>BANK = £2038.75

    Newbury 5.50 Welsh Diva LAY £20 @ 12/5 LOST<br>BANK = £2058.75

    Thirsk 5.55 Sabreeze LAY £20 @ 7/2 LOST<br>BANK = £2078.75

    149 Plays, BANK UP £1078.75.  114 Wins, 35 Losses.

    #39551
    larry layer
    Member
    • Total Posts 84

    April 22nd

    Hexham 4.40 Perouse LAY £20 @ 11/10 WON<br>BANK = £2056.75

    Pontefract 4.50 Kylkenny LAY £20 @ 4/1 LOST<br>BANK = £2076.75

    Windsor 5.00 Slupia LAY £20 @ 11/8 LOST<br>BANK = £2096.75

    152 Plays, BANK UP £1096.75.  116 Wins, 36 Losses.

    A nice start for you ihaventalight if you were doing it with the real money today!  

    #39557
    robgomm
    Member
    • Total Posts 224

    Hi Larry,

    Why do the last race favourites lose so often?

    May seem an obvious question but there’s got to be some reason for it…i think!

    Well done so far…it’s been good fun following the results…keep up the great work :) Rob.

    #39558
    larry layer
    Member
    • Total Posts 84

    robgomm, I have asked myself this same question!  I can’t come up with a concrete answer..  In reality there isn’t a huge gap statistically between the last favourite and the others – just a small one, but its big enough for us to exploit ! ;)  anyone got any ideas ?  

    On some occaisions I think it could be down to punters looking to back value in the last race in order to make back loses – this could produce a favourite which might not be the best horse in the race.

    The obvious answer is that conditions in the last race level the playing ground in some way – this is essential what is happening. – but how ?  I’m not a racing expert, but could the use of the ground by the previous horses possibly level the abilities slightly of horses in later races ?  

    Do the horses just not like racing later in the day ?  I’m sure someone can throw up some ideas.

    Ihaventalight – I know just how you feel at the moment!  Busy season for me ;)  

    #39559
    larry layer
    Member
    • Total Posts 84

    April 23rd

    Exeter 4.50 Hard To Know LAY £20 @ 12/5 LOST<br>BANK = £2116.75

    Folkstone 5.00 Sienna Star LAY £20 @ 6/4 LOST<br>BANK = £2136.75

    Wetherby 5.10 Bold Bishop LAY £20 @ 19/5 WON<br>BANK = £2060.75

    155 Plays, BANK UP £1060.75.  118 Wins, 37 Losses.

    #39560
    Hannahs Dad
    Member
    • Total Posts 12

    Another reason why some of the last race favourite loose could be down to fact that a lot of last races are either bumpers or hunter chases.  With so few of these run during a season the form is, at best, patchy.  Punters often go for a bumper that won last time out without considering the oppostion, going, distance etc.<br>However, I think Larry’s opinion about people chasing losses on the last ‘get out’ race is about right.<br> I once went to Haydock with a group of Rugby players who considered the last race fav a cert, whatever the form.  Hence all remaining money left in the kitty was placed on the fav at 3-1.  The fav went off at 7-4 and finished a very distant seventh… out of seven!  According to one member of the group, it was the jockey’s fault:cheesy: <br>Interestingly, the 2nd fav won.<br>I would be interested in seeing stats on first race favs.  I’m sure bookies don’t mind them winning.  Confidence soars, beer flows, stakes rise etc to an obvious conclusion.

    #39561
    robgomm
    Member
    • Total Posts 224

    <br>A friend of mine whose been betting on racing for many more years than i’ve been alive talked about a first race favourites system once.

    It was quite simple, probably a but like the First Favourite’s system we have on the Workshop that Matron does.

    Probably spot on about the ‘get out stakes’ factor. Derek Thompson saying ‘it’s time for the lucky last’ probably influences some poor people to bet. Maybe Thommo’s tipping service is always tipping the favourite in the last race? Nah…people don’t follow Thommo’s tips….do they?

    #39562
    tooting
    Member
    • Total Posts 379

    Right, I’ve jumped in with both feet.

    I’ll let you know how it goes.

    Naturally, my first lay yesterday was Karalinga Bay – won 9/2.  Well 6s with me – as you can see I need practice at getting decent odds!!  <br>

    #39563
    larry layer
    Member
    • Total Posts 84

    April 24th

    Epsom 4.50 Tribal Prince LAY £20 @ 5/1 LOST<br>BANK = £2080.75

    Catterick 5.30 Pinchbeck LAY £20 @ 13/5 LOST<br>BANK = £2100.75

    Perth 5.40 Long Walk LAY £20 @ 11/10 LOST<br>BANK = £2120.75

    158 Plays, BANK UP £1120.75.  121 Wins, 37 Losses.

    #39564
    tooting
    Member
    • Total Posts 379

    I have to say this is much trickier than it sounds (if you do actually locate the favourite as I failed to do in my haste yesterday!)

    At Beverley the market had Polish Corridor fave, but it was a fluctuating market – especially on betfair with two other horses often being shorter – having to constantly switch between betfair and a window with bookie’s odds – I really struggled to lay at anything like decent odds, missing out in the end.  It lost – unlayed.

    Quickly over to Perth. Cambrian Dawn went off 3/1f.  The lowest it ever was on betfair was 4/1.  I was pretty pleased with myself to get the lowest price available – until it won in a driving photo finish. Obviously, now I think I should have sat it out at the odds.

    Desmond Tutu in the last at Fontwell was much easier. 7/4f.  Got 7/4 on betfair.  Shame it won!

     

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