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Last Favourite Lay

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Viewing 15 posts - 16 through 30 (of 80 total)
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  • #39502
    larry layer
    Member
    • Total Posts 84

    Huntingdon 5.05 Game On  LAY £20 @ 8/13  LOST <br>BANK = £1235

    Doncaster 5.15 Kymani Prince  LAY £20 @ EVENS LOST<br>BANK = £1255

    Lingfield 5.20  Three Clouds LAY £20 @ 9/2  LOST<br>BANK = £1275

    Newbury 5.35 The Penny’s Dropped LAY £20 @ 11/8 LOST<br>BANK = £1295

    20 Plays, BANK UP £295 (14.75 Points if £20 = 1 Point).  18 Wins, 2 Losses

    :biggrin: :cool: :biggrin:

    #39503
    Daylight
    Member
    • Total Posts 369

    Leaving it as £’s is fine mate, we will convert – keep up the good work!

    #39504
    larry layer
    Member
    • Total Posts 84

    Wolverhampton 5.00 Flambe  LAY £20 @ 21/10  LOST<br>BANK = £1315

    Market Rsn 5.10 Cowboyboots LAY £20 @ 21/10  LOST<br>BANK = £1335

    Fontwell 5.20  Dragon Hunter  LAY £20 @ 6/4 WON<br>BANK = £1305

    23 Plays, BANK UP £305.  20 Wins, 3 Losses.

    Im predicting a higher percentage of these to start winning soon, it’s doing much better than expected!

    #39505
    MatronMatron
    Participant
    • Total Posts 5839

    I have been checking some "stats".

    30% of the favourites win in the last race on the card on the Flat and 35% with regards to the NH.

    Unless things change drastically you should do well with this.

    Regards – Matron<br>:cool:  

    #39506
    Slippy Blue
    Member
    • Total Posts 43

    Well done matey, keep it going.<br>Porsche for you at the end of the year at this rate .

    And not before time too.<br>That Ford Capri really does need replacing…………;)

    #39507
    larry layer
    Member
    • Total Posts 84

    Leicester 4.40  Red Rebel LAY £20 @ 21/10  LOST<br>BANK = £1325

    Exeter 4.50 Capriccio  LAY £20 @ 7/2  LOST<br>BANK = £1345

    Sedgefield 5.00  MR Woodentop  LAY £20 @ 1/3 LOST :o <br>BANK = £1365

    26 plays, BANK UP £365. 23 Wins, 3 Losses.

    <br>Thanks Matron and Slippy :biggrin:  I would settle for a nice apartment just off Regents Park personally!  Long way to go before then though! hehe

    #39508
    beard
    Member
    • Total Posts 15

    I have checked your system for the complete month of February and you would show a profit of 436 pounds for that month.<br>The only problem I see is laying which horse when the betting is close.i.e 7/2 joint favs just before the off means in your system that you do not play,but one of these can easily be returned 3/1 fav.<br>In a lot of cases it also difficult to predict which horse will start fav.For example in the last race at Exeter today<br>Devote opened at 9/4 but drifted to be returned at 4/1 whilst Capprichio opened  at5/1 but was supported to 7/2 fav.<br>Theory is good but in practice,in some cases,not so good.

    #39509
    larry layer
    Member
    • Total Posts 84

    Beard, well in practice you would be watching the market on Betfair at the time and lay the favourite just before the off, thus you are more likely to be able to see the actual favourite.. as in your example with Capriccio there.  

    If it is a close betting heat and you cannot tell if one is going to be favourite on the off then just leave it alone, it really won’t affect the statistics of it in the long run.  If there have been times during the running of the system that you may not have been able to lay the horse in question then I apaologise, however if you do follow this system you will still make your profit over time.

    The other consideration is that occasionally you may have to offer up slightly better value than just one odds increment higher than SP.  Although on other occasions you could get the actual SP or even something shorter. This would even out over the long run too.  In practice I would not play on a horse if I was having to offer up value that is more than 0.15 above the actual odds because this will significantly shorten the profit margin…. Again, in the long run missing out some of them because of this will even out and you will still show the profit because of the built in over-round of the bookies, ie the value is almost* always on the side of the bookies.  These are minor things though ;)  The advent of the betdaq exchange opening will also avail better value to the layer (as well as the punter!).

    The figures I have quoted in the system so far are acheivable I feel.  Like I say, some cases as a layer you would have gotten poorer value, some you could have layed at a shorter price, but at some point in 95% of these betting heats, the prices I have quoted would have been matched.  It is the idea that counts, if you miss one or two then it won’t make a big difference to the profit you have made in say 6 months time… and the ones you do miss are just as likely/unlikely to win as the the ones you do play.

    Hope I’m making sense!… probably not!  :biggrin:   Its more of an eye opening system than a hard fast — DO THIS AND MAKE MONEY type thing. :)

    (Edited by larry layer at 6:14 pm on Mar. 5, 2002)

    #39510
    beard
    Member
    • Total Posts 15

    Larry more stats on your system.

    August 2001 showed a profit of 164.00 pounds

    January 2002 showed a profit of 510.00 pounds

    Have you found THE system?

    #39511
    larry layer
    Member
    • Total Posts 84

    haha! :)  I’m sure it’s just one of many out there!  Gotta say, laying is definitely the way to go though, IMO.  + I’m happy today cos I just made slightly under £100 on the ftse betting :) (Im a betfair addict, I admit it!)  Right, time to size up these last of the day Favs.. ;)

    #39512
    larry layer
    Member
    • Total Posts 84

    Bangor 4.50  Son Of Anshan LAY £20 @ 12/5 LOST<br>BANK = £1385

    Catterick 5.00 Peterson’s Cay  LAY £20 @ 3/1 LOST<br>BANK = £1405

    Lingfield 5.10 Nayyir LAY £20 @ 1/3  WON<br>BANK = £1398.33

    29 Plays, BANK UP £398.33.  25 Wins, 4 Losses.<br>

    #39513
    nall
    Member
    • Total Posts 120

    Hi Larry

    Another Successful Day @ the Office.<br>Well Done.

    Regards  nall

    #39514
    larry layer
    Member
    • Total Posts 84

    Wincanton 4.55  Sure Future  LAY £20 @ 11/5  LOST<br>BANK = £1418.33

    Towcester 5.10  Sparkling Sword  LAY £20 @ 11/8 LOST<br>BANK = £1438.33

    31 Plays, BANK UP £438.33  27 Wins, 4 Losses.

    You know as soon as I put my own money on the line things will change… i might have a go tomorrow.

    #39515
    larry layer
    Member
    • Total Posts 84

    Hi nall,didnt see you there, must have posted it while I was typing :) thanks!  Can it keep going…  

    #39516
    larry layer
    Member
    • Total Posts 84

    Sandown 5.05 First Love LAY £20 @ 4/9 WON<br>BANK = £1429.53

    Ayr 5.15 Justupyourstreet  LAY £20 @ 11/4 LOST<br>BANK = £1449.53

    Hereford 5.25 Mr Dow Jones LAY £20 @ 11/8 WON<br>BANK = £1422.03

    34 Plays, BANK UP £422.03.  28 Wins, 6 Losses.

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