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Last Favourite Lay

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  • #890
    larry layer
    Member
    • Total Posts 84

    Thought I’d give the systems workshop a look in and decided to give this a try to see how it works.  Hopefully I can find the time to keep it up and running.  Here’s the idea…

    Lay the favorite in the last race each day from Monday to Saturday (No Irish races).  

    To make this realisitic (as if you were doing it on Betfair), I will add one odds increment onto the real digital SP odds to allow for the better value you have to offer on the exchange.

    This system will take level stakes of £20, with a starting bank of £1000.  

    An example.  Horse A is the fav.  Its SP is Evens, therefore we will offer 2.10 ( 11/10 ).  We will take £20, which is a risk of £22.

    Lets see how it goes!  I will update (or try to) at the end of the day, giving a running total of the bank.

    (Edited by larry layer at 4:05 pm on Feb. 21, 2002)

    #39480
    larry layer
    Member
    • Total Posts 84

    Also, if there is a race with joint favourites then I will not play on that race.

    #39481
    larry layer
    Member
    • Total Posts 84

    Southwell 4.50  Kent  LAY £20 @ 5/4  LOST     <br>BANK = £1020

    Wincanton 5.00  Captain Corelli  LAY  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚£20 @ 3/1  LOST<br>BANK = £1040

    Huntingdon 5.10  Oudalmuteena  LAY  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚£20 @ 7/2  LOST<br>BANK = £1060

    A nice start.

    #39483
    MatronMatron
    Participant
    • Total Posts 5824

    Good start Larry.

    Regards – Matron<br>:cool:

    #39485
    larry layer
    Member
    • Total Posts 84

    Kempton 4.30  Lakefield Rambler  LAY £20 @ 15/8 LOST<br>BANK = £1080

    Warwick 5.10  Joint Favs = NO BET<br>(incidentally, neither won so that would have been another win)

    Wolverhampton 5.20  Ostara  LAY £20 @ 5/2  LOST<br>BANK = £1100

    Bank up £100 in two days, nice start.  :biggrin: :cool:

    #39488
    larry layer
    Member
    • Total Posts 84

    Lingfield 4.50  Most Saucy  LAY £20 @ 5/1  LOST<br>BANK = £1120

    Musselburgh 5.00  Hollow Legs  LAY £20 @ 13/8  LOST<br>BANK = £1140

    Kempton 5.10  Cappadrummin LAY £20 @ 13/8  WON<br>BANK = £1107.50

    After 8 Plays, BANK UP £107.50.  7 Wins, 1 Loss.

    #39490
    larry layer
    Member
    • Total Posts 84

    Wolverhampton 4.45  Joint Favs = NO BET

    Plumpton 4.55  Brooksie  LAY £20 @ 10/3  LOST<br>BANK = £1127.50

    9 Plays, BANK UP £127.50.  8 Wins, 1 Loss.

    #39492
    larry layer
    Member
    • Total Posts 84

    Lingfield 4.40  Mr Lear  LAY £20 @ 5/6  LOST<br>BANK = £1147.50

    10 plays, BANK UP £147.50.  9 Wins, 1 Loss

    (Edited by larry layer at 4:47 pm on Feb. 26, 2002)

    #39493
    larry layer
    Member
    • Total Posts 84

    Lingfield 5.15  Open Arms  LAY £20 @ 13/8  WON<br>BANK = £1115

    11 Plays, BANK UP £115. 9 Wins, 2 Losses

    #39495
    larry layer
    Member
    • Total Posts 84

    Ludlow 5.00  Scottish Dance  LAY £20 @ 15/8  LOST<br>BANK = £1135

    Taunton 5.10  St. Helensfield LAY £20 @ 6/4  LOST<br>BANK = £1155

    Southwell 5.20  Green Green Grass  LAY £20 @ 6/4 LOST<br>BANK = £1175

    14 Plays, BANK UP £175.  12 Wins, 2 Losses.<br>

    #39497
    paul101
    Member
    • Total Posts 27

    Larry, it looks as though you have a winner with this system, do us all a favour and keep it going as long as you can, a 17.5% profit after 1 week is excellent, I really can not see a 17.5% profit every week, but it would be very interesting to see this thread after another month or so.

    good luck Paul  

    #39498
    larry layer
    Member
    • Total Posts 84

    Thanks, I will try to keep it going Paul !  Results are encouraging at the moment.  Its quite eye opening isn’t it.  I’m using the statistic that the last favourite of the day wins a lower percentage of races, which hopefully should mean you still have a big enough margin to lay them all on betfair and make a profit.  I’m expecting lots of them to win soon as a 12 – 2 start is a bit too good. :biggrin:  

    #39499
    larry layer
    Member
    • Total Posts 84

    Doncaster 5.15 Flossy Tops  LAY £20 @ 10/3  LOST<br>BANK = £1195

    Newbury 5.30  Tom De Savoie  LAY £20 @ 6/4 LOST<br>BANK – £1215

    16 Plays, BANK UP £215. 14 Wins, 2 Losses

    #39500
    Daylight
    Member
    • Total Posts 369

    Hi Larry,

    we need to assess this system as we run a monthly prize to the best monthly system performer. We deal in points (not pounds) so for arguments sake when we calculate this system for the monthly prize can we say £20 is 1 point as it makes it easier to work out for us. You carry on as you are but it’s just so we can rate your system against others.

    Good system so far by the way!

    #39501
    larry layer
    Member
    • Total Posts 84

    Hi Daylight,

    would you like me to put in a points figure as well as a bank figure to make it easier ?

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