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Larry<br>Nice to see a laying system being put to the test, thanks for sharing it with us.<br>However I think It is tad unfair to compare it with systems that back horses!<br>Also are you taking into account the commision on your winnings? this will add up.The exchanges are getting more competitive now from what I gather I think the key is to try and stick as close to sp as possible say within 15%.On play 121 I beleive you can lay at sp+X%.<br>Another angle you may with to adopt is to lay to a maximum risk, this should be safer in the long run but may mean profits grow more steadily.i.e offer to take £10 on a 2/1 shot but £20 on an even money shot or £30 on a 4/6 shot. This way makes it similar to normal betting in that you always know what you will lose, like level stakes.<br>Cheers;)
obiwan, I have tried that style of staking over a long run and it actually underperforms compared to the way Im doing it. If a horse is odds on it has a greater chance of winning, by taking level stakes you reduce the amount you lose compared to the ability of the horse.
Comission is something people will have to take into account if they do the system.. not sure if I should include it or not..
I will update the system later on, I’ve been a bit busy betting on other markets this week! :biggrin:
March 12th
Chepstow 5.05  Calladine LAY £20 @ 4/1  LOST<br>BANK = £1258.53
Southwell 5.15 Joint Favs No Bet.
Sedgefield 5.25 Jolly Minster LAY £20 @ 8/11  WON<br>BANK = £1243.99
March 13th
Huntingdon 5.30 Learn The Lingo LAY £20 @ 2/1 LOST<br>BANK = £1263.99
Cheltenham 5.40 Rhinestone Cowboy LAY £20 @ 13/5 LOST<br>BANK = £1283.99
March 14th
Southwell 5.15 Katy O’Hara LAY £20 @ 6/5 LOST<br>BANK = £1303.99
Hexham 5.25 The Eens LAY £20 @ 12/5 LOST<br>BANK = £1323.99
Cheltenham 5.40 Polar Red LAY £20 @ 21/10 LOST<br>BANK = £1343.99
March 15th
Fakenham 5.15 Leatherback LAY £20 @ 11/8 WON<br>BANK = £1316.49
Chepstow 5.30 Reel Dancer LAY £20 @  13/5 LOST<br>BANK = £1336.49
Wolverhampton 5.35 Bright Mist LAY £20 @ 12/5 LOST<br>BANK = £1356.49
March 16th
Uttoxeter 4.35 Lets Fly LAY £20 @ 11/8 LOST<br>BANK = £1376.49
Lingfield 4.40 Dunedin Rascal LAY £20 @ 9/2 LOST<br>BANK = £1396.49
Market Rasen 5.20 It’s Just Sally LAY £20 @ 6/4 LOST<br>BANK = £1416.49
March 18th
Southwell 5.00 Crazy Mazie LAY £20 @ 13/5 LOST<br>BANK = £1436.49
Wolverhampton 5.10 Illusive LAY £20 @ 4/1 LOST<br>BANK = £1456.49
Ayr 5.20 San Francisco LAY £20 @ 7/4 WON<br>BANK = £1421.49
March 19th
Hereford 4.40 Admiral Peary LAY £20 @ 6/5 LOST<br>BANK = £1441.49
Sedgefield 5.00 Jolly Minster LAY £20 @ 10/11 LOST<br>BANK = £1461.49
March 20th
Ludlow 5.25 Coleham LAY £20 @ 7/4 LOST<br>BANK = £1481.49
March 21st
Southwell 4.55 Joint Favs No Bet.
Doncaster 5.05 SIlver SOcks LAY £20 @ 10/3 LOST<br>BANK = £1501.49
Wincanton 5.15 Cowboyboots LAY £20 @ 15/8 LOST<br>BANK = £1521.49
March 22nd
Doncaster 4.35 Ajeel LAY £20 @ 11/10 LOST<br>BANK = £1541.49
Kelso 4.45 Backcraft LAY £20 @ 4/9 WON<br>BANK = £1532.60
Newbury 4.55 Sure Future LAY £20 @ 15/8 LOST<br>BANK = £1552.60
March 23rd
Newbury 4.45 Kyper Disco LAY £20 @ 12/5 LOST<br>BANK = £1572.60
Fontwell 4.55 Garethson LAY £20 @ 21/10 LOST<br>BANK = £1592.60
Uttoxeter 5.05 Asparagus LAY £20 @ 13/8 WON<br>BANK = £1560.10
Doncaster 5.15 Mutarafaa LAY £20 @ 11/2 LOST<br>BANK = £1580.10
Bangor 5.25 Emencee LAY £20 @ 13/5 LOST<br>BANK = £1600.10
March 25th
Lingfield 4.55 Kennet LAY £20 @ 4/1 LOST<br>BANK = £1620.10
Newcastle 5.35 Joint Favs No Bet.
Wolverhampton 5.45 Little Richard LAY £20 @ 15/8 LOST<br>BANK = £1640.10
March 26th
Southwell 4.30 Young-un LAY £20 @ 11/2 LOST<br>BANK = £1660.10
Kelso 4.40 Fiolino LAY £20 @ 13/5 LOST<br>BANK = £1680.10
March 27th
Nottingham 4.40 Junkanoo LAY £20 @ 10/3 WON<br>BANK = £1613.43
Catterick 4.50 Two Marks LAY £20 @ 4/7 LOST<br>BANK = £1633.43
Lingfield 5.00 Diamond Dagger LAY £20 @ 12/5 LOST<br>BANK = £1653.43
78 PLays, BANK UP £653.43. 61 Wins, 17 Losses.
(Edited by larry layer at 2:01 pm on Mar. 28, 2002)
Hi Larry
Nice system… but the Easter weekend must have been a nightmare, both betting, and then working out the bank totals etc; (I havn’t checked the results myself)
I had a wee look at your results in the thread and took just  the "Last Race of the Day" therefore narrowing it down to  just "One Race per Day" …and the results.. if I’ve done it right are printed here:
From 21 Feb  to 27th March:
Huntingdon 5.10 Oudalmuteena LAY £20 @ 7/2 LOST <br>Wolverhampton 5.20 Ostara LAY £20 @ 5/2 LOST<br>Kempton 5.10 Cappadrummin LAY £20 @ 13/8 WON <br>Plumpton 4.55 Brooksie LAY £20 @ 10/3 LOST <br>Lingfield 4.40 Mr Lear LAY £20 @ 5/6 LOST <br>Lingfield 5.15 Open Arms LAY £20 @ 13/8 WON <br>Southwell 5.20 Green Green Grass LAY £20 @ 6/4 LOST <br>Newbury 5.30 Tom De Savoie LAY £20 @ 6/4 LOST <br>Newbury 5.35 The Penny’s Dropped LAY £20 @ 11/8 LOST <br>Fontwell 5.20 Dragon Hunter LAY £20 @ 6/4 WON <br>Sedgefield 5.00 MR Woodentop LAY £20 @ 1/3 LOST <br>Lingfield 5.10 Nayyir LAY £20 @ 1/3 WON <br>Towcester 5.10 Sparkling Sword LAY £20 @ 11/8 LOST <br>Hereford 5.25 Mr Dow Jones LAY £20 @ 11/8 WON <br>Ayr 5.35 Stakeholder LAY £20 @ 13/5 LOST <br>Stratford 5.20 Coy Lad LAY £20 @ Evens LOST <br>Sedgefield 5.25 Jolly Minster LAY £20 @ 8/11 WON <br>Cheltenham 5.40 Rhinestone Cowboy LAY £20 @ 13/5 LOST <br>Cheltenham 5.40 Polar Red LAY £20 @ 21/10 LOST <br>Wolverhampton 5.35 Bright Mist LAY £20 @ 12/5 LOST <br>Market Rasen 5.20 It’s Just Sally LAY £20 @ 6/4 LOST <br>Ayr 5.20 San Francisco LAY £20 @ 7/4 WON <br>Sedgefield 5.00 Jolly Minster LAY £20 @ 10/11 LOST <br>Ludlow 5.25 Coleham LAY £20 @ 7/4 LOST<br>Wincanton 5.15 Cowboyboots LAY £20 @ 15/8 LOST <br>Newbury 4.55 Sure Future LAY £20 @ 15/8 LOST<br>Bangor 5.25 Emencee LAY £20 @ 13/5 LOST <br>Wolverhampton 5.45 Little Richard LAY £20 @ 15/8 LOST <br>Kelso 4.40 Fiolino LAY £20 @ 13/5 LOST <br>Lingfield 5.00 Diamond Dagger LAY £20 @ 12/5 LOST
If all is correct, there were 23 Days you would collect £20 and 7 Days you would pay out sums of £7 to £35 aprox.<br> <br>If my sums are right you would Collect £460 (23x£20), Pay Out £179 (aprox), and be in profit to about £281.(not inc Com) from 30 bets.
The One a Day would suit me, but maybe others prefer to have a few "irons in the fire".
Thanks for the work you put in, and hope you can keep it going, to get a significant  database, for reference.
Regards
Hi Will, have you been followig the system lately ? I hope it has been working for you! Time for an update I think…
I am going to include all race courses over the Easter period, but I have doubts as to which ones were available to bet/lay on via Betfair. Would appretiate some input from Urban Dave or the other moderators as to whether this is ok or not.
You carry on Larry and bring your results upto date.
I think it would fairer if you could post the results on a daily basis though in future as there is a monthly prize at stake.
Regards – Matron<br>:cool:
(Edited by Matron at 5:09 pm on April 10, 2002)
March 28th
Leicester 4.30 Baringo LAY £20 @ 7/2 LOST<br>BANK = £1673.43
Musselburgh 4.50 Mr Wensleydale LAY £20 @ 3/1 LOST<br>BANK = £1693.43
Exeter 5.10 Miss Cool LAY £20 @ 10/11 LOST<br>BANK = £1713.43
March 30th
Plumpton 5.00 Ashgar LAY £20 @ 10/11 LOST<br>BANK = £1733.43
Haydock 5.05 Broolyn Breeze LAY £20 @ 13/5 LOST<br>BANK = £1753.43
Kempton 5.20 Harbour House LAY £20 @ 13/2 LOST<br>BANK = £1773.43
Towcester 5.20 No Quarter LAY £20 @ 6/5 WON<br>BANK = £1749.43
Newton Abbot 5.25 Blues Story LAY £20 @ 9/2 LOST<br>BANK = £1769.43
Carlisle 5.30 Joint Favs No Bet
April 1st
Wincanton 4.30 Couloir LAY £20 @ 21/10 WON<br>BANK = £1727.43
Hereford 4.30 Joint Favs No Bet (Neither Won)
Kempton 4.50 Mr Dinos LAY £20 @ 7/4 LOST<br>BANK = £1747.43
Chepstow 4.55 Max Pride LAY £20 @ 13/8 LOST<br>BANK = £1767.43
Market Rasen 5.00 Big Max LAY £20 @ 2/1 LOST<br>BANK = £1787.43
Newcastle 5.00 Espada LAY £20 @ 11/2 LOST<br>BANK = £1807.43
Plumpton 5.00 John Hunter LAY £20 @ 13/8 WON<br>BANK = £1774.93
Uttoxeter 5.05 Rio Tinto LAY £20 @ 21/10 LOST<br>BANK = £1794.93
Wetherby 5.05 You’re Special LAY £20 @ 10/11 WON<br>BANK = £1776.75
Huntingdon 5.05 High Places LAY £20 @ 13/5 LOST<br>BANK = £1796.75
Warwick 5.10 Aker Wood LAY £20 @ 10/3 LOST<br>BANK = £1816.75
Carlisle 5.15 Temple Dog LAY £20 @ 15/8 LOST<br>BANK = £1836.75
Towcester 5.25 Sh Boom LAY £20 @ 7/4 WON<br>BANK = £1801.75
Nottingham 5.25 El Raymondo LAY £20 @ 9/2 LOST<br>BANK = £1821.75
Fakenham 5.25 Long Shot LAY £20 @ 11/10 WON<br>BANK = £1799.75
April 2nd
Southwell 4.30 River Ensign LAY £20 @ 13/5 LOST<br>BANK = £1819.75
Warwick 5.10 Kalasara LAY £20 @ 7/4 WON<br>BANK = £1784.75
Uttoxeter 5.20 Giolla Valley LAY £20 @ 3/1 LOST<br>BANK = £1804.75
More updates later on..
Hi Matron,
I will do my best to do that, recently I have been betting during the time I would be updating… but I will try to make time. There will be a few days during this month where I’m away from the computer however. Thanks :)
April 3rd
Ascot 5.20 Kopeck LAY £20 @ 10/3 LOST<br>BANK = £1824.75
Ludlow 5.40 Counsel LAY £20 @ 5/1 LOST<br>BANK = £1844.75
Ripon 6.00 Thaqib LAY £20 @ 5/4 LOST<br>BANK = £1864.75
April 4th
Aintree 5.20 Eternal Spring LAY £20 @ 21/10 LOST<br>BANK = £1884.75
Leicester 5.30 Air Mail LAY £20 @ 9/2 LOST<br>BANK = £1904.75
Taunton 5.40 Cameron Bridge LAY £20 @ 2/1 LOST<br>BANK = £1924.75
April 5th
Sedgefield 5.10 Court of Appeal LAY £20 @ 6/5 LOST<br>BANK = £1944.75
Aintree 5.25 Ravenswood LAY £20 @ 15/8 WON<br>BANK = £1907.25
Folkstone 5.35 Double FAre LAY £20 @ 13/8 LOST<br>BANK = £1927.25
April 6th
Lingfield 4.45 Ballerine LAY £20 @ 11/2 LOST<br>BANK = £1947.25
Aintree 5.15 Kickham LAY £20 @ 16/5 WON<br>BANK = £1883.25
Hereford 5.25 Rainbow Spirit LAY £20 @ 21/10 LOST<br>BANK = £1903.25
April 8th
Kempton 4.55 Joint Favs No Bet
Wolverhampton 5.05 Jalb LAY £20 @ 12/5 LOST<br>BANK = £1923.25
Kelso 5.15 The President LAY £20 @ 21/10 LOST<br>BANK = £1943.25
April 9th
No Racing.
April 10th
Lingfield 5.10 Colonel Cotton LAY £20 @ 3/1 LOST<br>BANK = £1963.25
Warwick 5.25 Cabo Salinas LAY £20 @ 13/2 LOST<br>BANK = £1983.25
Chepstow 5.40 Ski Pass LAY £20 @ 15/8 LOST<br>BANK = £2003.25
April 11th
Musselburgh 4.50 High Drama LAY £20 @ 3/1 LOST<br>BANK = £2023.25
Exeter 4.55 Mouseski LAY £20 @ 12/5 LOST<br>BANK = £2043.25
Brighton 5.00 Jawhari LAY £20 @ 3/1 LOST<br>BANK = £2063.25
Ludlow 5.10 Blue Ride LAY £20 @ 3/1 WON<br>BANK = £2003.25
124 Plays, BANK UP £1003.25. 97 Wins, 27 Losses.<br>
(Edited by larry layer at 12:20 pm on April 12, 2002)
Continuing the updates.. hopefully be able to do it more regularly from now on, just finished a couple of exams today!
April 12th
Carlisle 4.50 Joe’s Edge LAY £20 @ 21/10 WON<br>BANK = £1961.25
Uttoxeter 5.00 Clodoald LAY £20 @ 16/5 LOST<br>BANK = £1981.25
Southwell 5.10 Joint Favs No Bet. (Neither Won)
April 13th
Ascot 4.50 Shemdani LAY £20 @ 6/5 LOST<br>BANK = £2001.25
Market Rasen 5.00 Nephite LAY £20 @ 3/1 WON<br>BANK = £1941.25
Pontefract 5.05 Stands To Reason LAY £20 @ 21/10 LOST<br>BANK = £1961.25
Hexham 5.10 Ragu LAY £20 @ 21/10 LOST<br>BANK = £1981.25
Haydock 5.15 Vanderlin LAY £20 @ Evens LOST<br>BANK = £2001.25
April 15th
Southwell 4.40 Tolcea LAY £20 @ 13/5 LOST<br>BANK = £2021.25
Plumpton 4.50 Charliemoore LAY £20 @ 11/8 WON<br>BANK = £1993.75
Windsor 5.30 Imoya LAY £20 @ 11/8 WON<br>BANK = £1966.25
April 16th
Newcastle 4.55 Petterson’s Cay LAY £20 @ 15/8 LOST<br>BANK = £1986.25
Newmarket 5.10 Mazepa LAY £20 @ 15/8 WON<br>BANK = £1948.75
Nottingham 5.20 It’s Our Secret LAY £20 @ 13/5 LOST<br>BANK = £1968.75
137 Plays, BANK UP £968.75. 105 Wins, 32 Losses.
April 17th
Cheltenham 4.55 Joint Favs No Bet.
Newmarket 5.10 Touch Light LAY £20 @ 4/1 LOST<br>BANK = £1988.75
Beverly 5.15 Island Flight LAY £20 @ 4/1 LOST<br>BANK = £2008.75
139 Plays, BANK UP £1008.75. 107 Wins, 32 Losses.
April 18th
Ripon 4.45 Paddywack LAY £20 @ 9/2 LOST<br>BANK = £2028.75
Cheltenham 4.55 Joint Favs No Bet.
Newmarket 5.10 Western Verse LAY £20 @ 11/10 LOST<br>BANK = £2048.75
141 Plays, BANK Up £1048.75. 109 Wins, 32 Losses.
Dear Ihaventalight,
I’ve been following this system for a short while, and I might be able to help with a couple of the questions. I’m using Betfair, so all the answers are based on that, and I’m a true novice at working with P2P betting :
a) I’m running at a lay of 5 quid per race, and I started with a bank of 25, which was far too low. On a couple of occasions I can’t get on because the liability is too high, and the bank has nearly been broken a couple of times, even though I’m showing a nice profit. so I’d say at least 4 or 5 hundred pounds.
b) I’ve been laying quite close to the off, but through necessaity as I can’t get to a PC until about 5pm each day. The prices I’ve been laying at stack up with Larry’s odds that he’s posting though, so I think I’m doing ok.
c) You can edit all unmatched bets, so yes you can lengthen your prices no problem.
d) No, but you cannot be liable for more than your balance, and each time you offer a lay your available balance decreases – even if the bet hasn’t been matched. So you will need plenty in the bank on a busy day.
e) No. It takes ages and is a real pain given my tiny initial bank. I’ve missed several races waiting for the bank to be updated. About 15 minutes usually.
Good luck!
(Edited by RichK at 11:18 am on April 19, 2002)
Hi guys,
Good to have you along RichK and Ihaventalight.  Sadly I haven’t been doing this with real money, I wanted to test it on paper for a while first, I had a couple of reservations about it’s feasability before I started.  I knew the favourites in the last race of the day won less than all the others, and I know that if you were to back all of the last favourties to win you would only return approx 89% on your stakes over time, leaving an 11% margin… Think of it like this, the odds on the horse are usually (unless its a "good thing"!:biggrin: ) just below the actual probability of the horse winning – a profit margin is built in!….problem was, would offering above the odds prices (as you usually have to do) on the exchanges wipe out the margin?  I think we can say at the moment – no!  I do think that you will have periods of time where you won’t be making money on this but staying level, I think the system has had a good run since I began.
To answer some of the questions myself…(I agree with RichK for the most part – thanks Rich!)
a) a bank for £50 lay per race… I would advise at least £1,000.  I always like to play it safe when talking about bank sizes.  The bigger the better.  But consider that if you have a favourite that goes off at 11/2 and wins, thats £275 down straight away.  Its not beyond the realms of possibility that several could go in, in a row – they are favourites after all.
b) As close to the off as you can.  Although I advise you spend a lot of time watching the character of the markets on Betfair and try to judge when the price will be at its lowest.  Load up some bookies prices in different windows, or smartbet.co.uk to keep a track of the prices.  It’s crucial you get the shortest price you possibly can.  If a price shortens, very often people will actually take an artificially short price as they get nervous about it shortening quickly.  And be QUICK with altering the price of your lays, there are traders on there that prey on your price being left on the screen for a split second too long… I know, because I’m one of them! :biggrin: Not usually on racing though.
c)  As Rich says, you can constantly amend the price of your offer.  If a price is drifting and you know it, that is when you can make the best play – by offering your odds at the forefront of the betting…  (its all about getting your price to match the SP as closely as possible to keep the profit margin in tact, if you can consistently read the market you will make more money in the long run because your margin will be bigger.  This is the key to making the system as profitable as possible.)
d)  A minimum bank on Betfair is £25.  You need ot have sufficient in your bank to cover your "exposure" – the amount you stand to lose if the horse wins.
e)  As Rich said – it can take 15 minutes.  I believe settling markets on Betfair is the main cause of site slow down so they try to time it in times of lower activity… :biggrin: whether it works or not, erm…  hehehehe
Im going to start using this system myself shortly.
Lets hope it keeps going!  I may start another laying system soon, looking at some stats at the moment to see if its workable.
(Edited by larry layer at 3:46 pm on April 20, 2002)
April 19th
Thirsk 5.00 Sunley Scent LAY £20 @ 11/2 LOST<br>BANK = £2068.75
Newbury 5.10 Gamut LAY £20 @ Evens WON<br>BANK = £2048.75
Ayr 5.20 Ravenswood LAY £20 @ Evens WON<br>BANK = £2028.75
144 Plays, BANK UP £1028.75. 110 Wins, 34 Losses.
April 20th
Bangor 4.50 Felix Randall LAY £20 @ 13/8 LOST<br>BANK = £2048.75
Ayr 5.10 Tollbrae LAY £20 @ 12/5 LOST<br>BANK = £2068.75
Stratford 5.45 Druid’s Glen LAY £20 @ 6/4 WON<br>BANK = £2038.75
Newbury 5.50 Welsh Diva LAY £20 @ 12/5 LOST<br>BANK = £2058.75
Thirsk 5.55 Sabreeze LAY £20 @ 7/2 LOST<br>BANK = £2078.75
149 Plays, BANK UP £1078.75. 114 Wins, 35 Losses.
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