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I too have been puzzling over this year’s KG – not just as a race but over the size of the field that lined up eventually, which was small even by the standards of the race. Here’s my contribution to what was going on there, based on an analysis of the original entries.
There were 37 original entries, from 16 trainers in England, Ireland and France. That looks healthy enough numerically. In quality terms too it had all the right names, including the top rated chasers in England and Ireland, the best 2 milers and 3 miles plus horses in England and Ireland, and the best English novices from the previous year. But dig a little deeper and it’s possible to see why the entries declined so steeply. Some of this is about general trends; some of it is about the tribulations of training racehorses, and then there are factors specific to this year’s race.
In general terms, the standout is how entries relate to trainers. 4 trainers were responsible for 4 or more original entries: WP Mullins (9); NJ Henderson (5); PF NIcholls (4); C Tizzard (4) – i.e. 60% of the original entries were from 4 trainers, with WPM providing ~25% of them. Other trainers with more than one entry were Noel Meade (3) and Venetia Williams. In terms of other English trainers, there were entries from Kim Bailey, Amy Murphy, Harry Whittington, Philip Hobbs, Tom George, Mick Channon and William Greatrex – none of which comprised the final field.
The pattern of entries from a small number of big yards is (yet) another indication of how highly concentrated the top chasers are. But it also suggests how an original healthy entry can get quickly whittled down. At the very most, the ‘big’ trainers nowadays will run two against one another in one G1 championship race. If they do otherwise, they lose the chance to win valuable additional prize money elsewhere. Mostly, they divide their horses according to where they think they have the best chance of winning. So, inevitably, a lot of the 37 original entries were never going to be running in the KG but elsewhere. Where?
The extended Christmas programme on both sides of the Irish Sea now offers trainers plenty of opportunities. Looking at the original 37 entries, and leaving out the 5 who lined up in the KG, 12 ran in other races over the immediate Christmas period. Typically this was at Ascot or Leopardstown. But, interestingly, only 3 of these (Monalee, Road to Respect and Bellshill) ran in the 3 mile G1 at Leopardstown, which is often seen as the direct competitor-race to the KG. Clearly, it isn’t as simple. Instead, 2 ran in the valuable Ascot chases the Saturday before Christmas, whilst others took in graded races at Kempton and Leopardstown, including the Desert Orchid and the 2m G1 at Leopardstown. Given an original entry comprising 2-3 milers this is what we should expect to find. The effect of strengthening and extending the Christmas programme, though, has been to spread the quality about – a pattern which will have long term implications for the KG.
In contrast, 15 of the original KG entries were taken out at the various stages and have not (yet) run over the Christmas period, although some are entered for NYD. Some of these were ruled out with problems, from a bruised foot (Thistlecrack) and under-performing on the gallops (Altior) to the more serious (Douvan, Vinndication). This is always going to happen with race horses. Some were shifted to the ‘by-pass the KG’ category. Again, that is understandable. Some in this category, like Bristol de Mai, have been there and not enjoyed it; why bother again? Others (like Defi and Min) had taken a different race programme and raced earlier in December.
But as significant, surely, is that this KG was shaping up to be a seriously ‘hot’ race. Seriously hot races often have small fields. So is it any real surprise that the likes of La Bague au Roi and Elegant Escape were diverted to more realistic targets, whilst previous winners and placed runners such as Might Bite and Native River stayed in their boxes. Probably not. If they were mine, I’d have done the same. “If you’re not in it, you can’t win it” maybe, but mileage matters with NH horses – and why add what was shaping up to be seriously hot miles to the clock when you can wait for another, more suitable, day.
A mix of ‘obvious’ and ‘potential’ for me this year – and no doubt subs will start being needed from tomorrow! Thanks VtC – always a great comp.
Altior *
Battleoverdoyen
Buveur d’Air
Delta Work
Klassical Dream
Lostintranslation
McFabulous
Paisley Park
Pentland Hills
Prince Llwelyn@ Himself – I agree. He’s right up there with that all-time exceptional 2yo list: Mill Reef (Gimcrack, Coventry), Zafonic (Salamande, Dewhurst), Frankel (Royal Lodge), Arazi (BCJ). No question; he’s that good. He may even be better, as the acceleration he showed on Sunday as he rocketed away from that field was not unlike that of a top class mature sprinter – Dayjur, Battaash (on a good day). Maybe he won’t train on; maybe he is just a 2yo. But this colt is no one performance wonder. He has just got better and better each time he has come to the track. He is also as laid back as they come and evidently does very little at home. So, there is every chance that he will be back next year for more of the same.
In the meantime, let’s enjoy him – as an exceptional 2yo colt who, because connections had no idea what they had, has been campaigned as an old-style exceptional 2yo. Mill Reef’s first race was in May of his 2yo year, and he too went on to run in and win the Dewhurst, after running in the Coventry, the Prix Robert Papin, the Gimcrack and the Middle Park. Over 50 years on from his birth, and with so much fragility evident in the modern day TB, it’s refreshing to see a colt with the constitution and temperament to do the same. Pina”turbo”’s performances, cumulatively, have lit up this year’s flat season. In a season where the 2yo colts have looked a particularly strong bunch, he is a class apart.
As some of the BTL comment on The Guardian coverage says, the effect will be felt most immediately and most keenly in the stores and p2p market, rather than in the top echelons of the training ranks, where new owners are generally to be found. The prices for ‘winner of 1 p2p/ top staying chaser prospects’ have been stratospheric in recent years, fuelled by the presence of big money (business) interests in the market and all of them seeking the dream of that GC winner. Samcro is just one example of this trend but £3-400k guinea top lots have been the norm in the top sales for a good few years – and that for a 4yo/5yo gelding with little or no residual value. The exit of Gigginstown from the market seems to me to be the NH equivalent of when Sheikh M withdrew from the yearling flat market. If so, it will be lean(er) times ahead for many vendors and producers.
For those who are interested in the wider debate, of which ‘the whip’ is part –
The following is a link to a recent NZ TB/Sports Horse conference that focuses on the ‘social license’ surrounding all forms of equestrian sport, from racing through to dressage. All the presentations are available to view on You Tube, as are all the slides from the presentations. If you are interested, and have the time, I strongly recommend viewing them.
The shift from what is known as the Five Freedoms model of animal welfare to the Five Domains model is key – and it is this thinking that is driving much of what has been articulated recently by Nick Rust.
Racing is not an island in this; neither is it going to get anywhere by insisting that it is. Instead, it has to join with the rest of equestrian sport to think through what this new model of animal welfare means for its practice.
For those who might not have seen this –
https://www.francescaaltoft.co.uk/blog/special-by-name-special-by-nature
I thought it deserved to be here.
Fabulous horse – epitome of a top class 2-mile chaser, and a benchmark act for several seasons. Will never forget his QM day in the sun, alongside those annual appearances at Kempton over Christmas. He didn’t deserve that – the only consolation is that he was tanking along and enjoying himself, and he still had his ears pricked behind those screens.
Hard to read that link RL – I’m glad that you’ve removed it but that doesn’t erase it and incidents like this are hardly going to do racing any favours. Any horse deserves respect in these circumstances – as do the connections. It’s gutting enough when it happens, but to have to deal with that kind of memory. Well – appalled doesn’t come near it.
Well said Archipenko. It is not just eventing, the FEI (the international body regulating all equestrian sport) has a clear regulatory code. It defines horse abuse as including but not limited to (i) to whip or beat a horse excessively; (ii) to subject a horse to any kind of electric shock device; (iii) to use spurs excessively or persistently; (iv) to jab the horse in the mouth with the bit or any other device; (v) to compete using an exhausted, lame or injured horse; (vi) to ‘rap’ a horse’; (vii) to abnormally sensitise or desensitise any part of a horse; (viii) to leave a horse without adequate food, drink or exercise; (ix) to use any device or equipment which causes excessive pain to the horse upon knocking down an obstacle.
Whip abuse in all forms of equestrian sport is no longer tolerated, and the penalties for offenders are severe. For some recent high profile show jumping examples see:
The whip in equestrian sport is sanctioned for use as a mild corrective, and as a limited means to encouragement. The best riders rarely ever use it; their riding skills are such that they don’t need to. Yes, there are instances that I can think of where I’ve seen an event rider use the stick (one or two slaps down the shoulder, no more) to encourage a horse, but – unlike in racing – that is not to make the horse go faster. It’s more as a ‘wake up’ message if they are jumping stickily or if they need to ‘go long’ at a fence. Mostly though, it’s hands and heels riding.
In my opinion, the corner that racing has backed itself into is the line that the whip is for encouragement to go faster. The rest of equestrian sport just doesn’t see it like this, and in society, where in 50 years we have moved from using the cane to discipline children at home and at school, through sharp smacks with hands and slippers (my childhood) to no smacking/ smacking = child abuse, then any form of whip use is a societal problem.
As an example of how even sympathetic outsiders might see this, I asked my non-horsey partner (who enjoys watching racing and going to the occasional meeting) what their initial reaction had been to the whip in horse racing. The answers – 1) surprise at how much it was/is used at the end of a race; 2) it does not look like ‘encouragement’ when it is used like this; and 3) clearly, in any race that matters, the whip rules are flagrantly ignored by jockeys, who clearly know that they can get away with it.
Jumping ability – as Louise says – is inherited. Other equestrian sports have recognised this for decades. Many sports horse breeding programmes require potential stallions to pass jumping tests to become accredited jumping stallions. That so many top chasers have French sires that have shown their jumping ability on the racecourse cannot be a coincidence. The racecourse jumping test is the TB equivalent of the sports horse stallion testing competitions. In GB and Ireland, though, ‘failed’ flat stallions or staying flat horses are consigned to NH breeding without any consideration of whether they can actually jump at all. That worries me – and it worries me even more that very large numbers of these horses are being bred on very similar lines. What happens to steeplechasing down the line if large numbers of these horses can’t jump a fence?
This is an excellent thread, one of the best in recent months. I’m pleased to see it branching out to offer comparisons with other forms of equestrian sport as I think there are lessons that can be learned from there which signal exactly Joe’s point that this issue is inextricably bound up with societal change, notably in relation to animal welfare.
Horse racing can often position itself in a bubble – and the whip debate has plenty of examples of this. But, for those who are not (like us) devotees, it is just another form of sport involving horses. It is also the one with the most visibility on terrestrial TV. Other equestrian sports get much less coverage/exposure but when they do, and when welfare issues raise their heads, it is notable that regulatory bodies are seeing fit to intervene with more bite. Louise mentions the Oliver Townend case, at last year’s Badminton (the major UK Eventing 4* Championship, and where the X-C is live screened all day on the BBC Red Button). That ‘ugly riding’ was a particularly bad incident. I certainly did not enjoy watching it. In using the whip excessively on a tired horse, though, it would not have been exceptional on the racecourse. I can think of multiple examples of such usage under both racing codes. Yet the outcome here was to lose out on team selection and a loss of sponsorship. In other words, eventing has seen the need to see its sport as others (outsiders) might see it, and to act when necessary such that the sport itself can be seen as aligning with societal norms and values, not against them.
Horse racing developed in a very different era. The place (or not) of the whip in its future, I think, will define its future acceptability. Personally, I would like to see a proper trial, involving all jockeys riding without whips, say for one month, both on the flat and NH. I fully accept that there may well be safety considerations that emerge, principally where the whip needs to be used as a mild corrective (e.g. when leaning in against another horse, or when meeting Drone’s van!). A related issue is that jockeys – unlike riders in other equestrian sports – do not have the full use of their legs/seat to control the horse’s direction/speed of travel. In that respect the whip can be a substitute for the legs. So, there may well be knock on effects on riding styles. But this is all hypothetical. The only way we will find out what racing minus whips is like is to trial it. That trial is probably the most effective and responsible way that racing can intervene to continue to govern itself
I was there today. Dreadful weather, but with a race of this quality on your doorstep and the opportunity to see them all in the flesh, this was not to be missed.
I spent a fair bit of time looking them over in the pre-parade ring. Samcro and Buveur were in well ahead of the rest of the field, so there was plenty of opportunity to compare the two. Samcro is a tall, long and leggy, imposing, fluid-moving horse, although he is not as big as I thought he would be. He is all over a stayer to look at. He was also fit. Buveur, by contrast, is smaller and more compact, powerful athlete – and he was nowhere near as fit as his main rival. One is a hurdler in type, the other you would guess would be a staying chaser. There was a distinct sense that Samcro was here to smash up Buveur, and the Buveur team certainly looked worried ahead of the race. The race though told an entirely different story. After watching it, I cannot see Samcro ever getting anywhere near Buveur – he was just in a different county. Electric.
I have long been in the ‘Buveur d’Air is not getting the recognition he deserves’ camp. It’s interesting to speculate, but take Buveur out of the race and out of the picture and folk would be singing the praises of Samcro for stuffing Summerville Boy (the Supreme winner) and Vision des Flos out of sight, and it would have been on to the CH as a firm favourite. So, either the novice hurdlers from last year are not top drawer (possible) or Buveur is a much better Champion than he has been given the credit for. I tend to the latter view. Today is the hard evidence – but then it’s salutary to think back to the reason he went back over hurdles. Whilst it was the case that he is a very, very slick hurdler, it probably had more to do with a future that would have involved continually having to run against Altior …
As for Samcro. Well he looks like an RSA horse to me, and – having seen him – I’m even more surprised about the decision to go the CH route. I suspect that he is not a fluent (enough) jumper of a fence. It’s hard to know which way connections will go. They’ve just about got time to divert to fences but if he stays over hurdles, well realistically it’s the Stayers if he’s going to have a chance of winning anything at Cheltenham … After all, as well as having Buveur to contend with in the CH there’s Laurina in there with the mares’ allowance. The Stayers’ could get really interesting. It’s not beyond the realms of possibility that we’ll see the two sons of Germany here, plus Thistlecrack.
Reading today’s comments, particularly in the RP, it seems the Betfair is being derailed by a separate debate re. the Haydock fences. Where they come together is in Team SB trying to find an explanation for MB’s below par performance.
On the fences, I agree with everyone else over the need for advance notification of changes in configuration. Courses have reputations vis a vis the stiffness (not) of their fences, and that inevitably shapes which horses are entered where. The problem for Haydock is the mismatch between trainer/jockey expectations (based on fences in recent years) and the wake-up call (for the jockeys) that was clearly the first chase. I don’t know if trainers/jockeys actually looked at these fences before racing but I suspect, from the reported comments, that they didn’t, and that that is the source of the nasty surprise, which has then fuelled an increasingly negative response.
For sure, the current Haydock fences are not an ideal introduction for a novice chaser. Folk needed to know that, beforehand. Good and experienced chasers, or at least those who enjoy jumping, are a different matter though. Most (though not all!) are intelligent beasts. They can usually work out what’s in front of them and adjust their technique accordingly. That’s why, after a couple of fences into the current National course, most of the field are jumping through the fences. In running, I actually thought that, with the exception of Thistlecrack, who did balloon some early on, all five runners were showing the fences the respect they merited. None were taking a chance on them. Yes, they took some jumping – but, as Joe says, ‘this is steeplechasing’! Of course there is a need to be mindful of welfare and how NH racing sits in the public eye but I don’t think this race did anything negative on that front. They all jumped them all; there were no major blunders and everyone that set out finished. It was a great race, a great spectacle and a real advert for NH racing.
To MB … I have watched this race three times now, once ‘live’ and twice on the replay, and tbh to me his jumping looks much like it did last year. Obviously, Nico is the one who will know what he feels like, but all this talk of ‘kid gloves’, lacking confidence and needing to involve Yogi Breisner suggests that he is not a natural chaser – and absolutely not Sprinter. With that in mind, I can’t help but think he would be better off back out in front i.e. dictating matters and using his engine to give him time and space to organise himself in front of the obstacles, not upsides others, like BdM and NR, who can upset his confidence by outjumping him. Ironically, in trying to iron out the quirks of his novice year, they may have put his confidence under more pressure. To my mind though, his problems yesterday started not at the fences but on the turn-in, where he is the first to be ‘bumped along’. Then, when he enters the straight and comes off the bridle his head comes up, and he turns it to the right. To his credit, he doesn’t shirk it (you are right Joe, he never does) – but, we’ve seen this in the KG, the GC and the Betfair now. I think it’s a wind issue. But, if it is, they haven’t got time to sort that out ahead of the KG, which has to be the main target now.
Great race – as is obvious from the amount of comment. I too have watched it through a couple of times on the replay, as well as live. Fair play to BDM. On his day he is a very good horse – let’s hope he comes out of this without too many niggles/issues. The two I keep coming back to though, for different reasons, are Thistlecrack and Might Bite.
It’s a long time since I can remember seeing Thistlecrack so obviously enjoying himself. Yes, his jumping (over these obstacles) found him out, and he didn’t have the change of pace to go with them at the top of the straight, but I can see them heading to the KG with every hope. I’d see him as a more likely KG horse than NR, and the Tizzards will surely want to run one of them? But, on this evidence, I can’t see him beating NR at Cheltenham – and I have a nasty feeling that he will remember that Cotswold Chase. So, depending on what the Stayers’ Hurdle is looking like, might we see Thistlecrack v Faugheen there?
MB is an enigma – but then he is a Scorpion (Montjeu). He looked fabulous. It was obvious from the parade ring why NJH had been making comparisons to Sprinter. Unfortunately though, the paddock was where they ended. To give him the benefit of the doubt, several of NJH’s have run like this fto. So, there is a question mark (maybe) over fitness. But I’d say it’s unlikely that he’d have been left short for a day like this one and with the bonus on the line. Maybe he did spend slightly too much time in the air? But then Thistlecrack jumped much worse and finished far better. More likely, I think, looking again at the footage, is that there is a wind and/or temperament issue. The horse definitely puts his head up in the air, and to the right all the way down the straight – a trait he has shown several times before. If I remember correctly, it’s also a trait of Montjeu himself. As a novice that got labelled as quirkiness, the RSA being the best example. Last year, it was visible in both the KG and the GC – where it became seen as a stamina issue. My own view, fwiw, is that he does this when he stops finding things easy, which is why he goes from cruising to not so swiftly. Personally, I think they’ve lost something in tackling his quirks by making him race like a conventional racehorse. I’d much rather see the old MB off out front on his own, using his ability to make the others play ‘catch me if you can, or if I let you’!
Just love watching this woman ride. It’s not only that she establishes sympathetic partnerships with the horses she rides (by riding them as she does) but she also fills them with confidence (by riding them that way). Such horse craft, to my mind, is relatively rare in race riding, unlike in other equestrian sport. The effects in terms of benefits are there to see. A horse like BC (regarded originally as a fun summer horse) can find it within him to win a G1. Likewise, Present Man’s jumping down the Wincanton straight yesterday. There is a great image of the pair of them on Michael Harris’ Twitter feed that says it all about what she instils in a horse:
Come on Bryony – can you imagine what this would do for horse racing if she were to win the GN and/or the GC!
My set VtC – great comp. as ever:
Altior
Buveur d’Air
Danny Kirwan
Footpad
Kalashnikov
Laurina ***
Presenting Percy
Santini
Terrefort
Vinndication@chaos –
Here you are: the link to all the Frankel’s entered in Tatts Autumn HiThttp://www.tattersalls.com/autumnhit-search-lots.php
But, I see that Nelson, unfortunately, has been withdrawn … I really do hope he isn’t slated for another year of being Kew Gardens’ pacemaker and that he is allowed to run on merit.
There are some interesting other entries that were originally catalogued and remain for sale, including The Grand Visir and the much anticipated, but very disappointing, son of Frankel and Midday, Midi. It will be interesting to see where they head to – my guess is either NH or a low-level stallion job somewhere.
The December Breeding Stock sale catalogue is also just out. There are some Frankel mares in there, including from Juddmonte, so again it will be interesting to see who buys them and at what level of the market. Also catalogued is Frankel’s half-brother, by Oasis Dream, Morpheus – who hasn’t been setting the world alight with his first runners.
