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Really strong entries for this….
https://www.racingpost.com/racecards/racecards/37/newcastle/2018-12-01/714987
The likes of Buveur D’Air, Samcro, and Summerville Boy will rightly grab the headlines, but they’re are several in here who could look overpriced come the day.
Bedrock just looks too big on his last two runs, while a big run in The Greatwood, which I think is possible, could see the 50’s disappear for Midnight Shadow. Only concern here is that he’s missing from Paddy Powers list, but that can often be a glitch on Oddschecker.
I could make similar cases for several of them at double figure prices, but I’d be more than happy for a small early go on this pair, and will probably play once I know there’s no issue with Shadow. Bedrock looks worth risking right now.
Bedrock 14’s Win
Midnight Shadow 50’s EWStunned how strong the entry is for this race. Reckon plenty of the handicappers are graded horses as well. Couldn’t be taking the price about Buveur D’Air with counterfeit money. When truly tested in the Champion Hurdle he wasn’t a superb winner and this race could turn out not to be much weaker, if at all. Summerville Boy appears at his best on softer ground (it wouldn’t take masses of rain to turn Newcastle into a bog) but I don’t see anything awe-inspiring at the prices with him.
Bedrock makes most appeal (this would be his last UK outing before he’s bizarrely shipped off to America). He produced a stellar effort last time, an improvement on his Galway Hurdle promise. I’ve followed this horse for ages (more on the flat than hurdles) and I think they have just found the key to him (pity he’s leaving the yard so soon). Sceau Royal is a better chaser but a horse I greatly admire, would this be too close to the Tingle Creek? I’d suspect so. 50/1 about Storm Rising isn’t bad, he’ll be shorter if running well on Sunday.
Worth pointing out the Betfair Hurdle 2nd – Bleu Et Rouge is 150/1 for this with PaddyPower & SkyBet. Obviously, it’s concerning to see a horse in these colours join Ben Haslam. Surely the price is a tad insulting though?
VTC,
I’ve noticed this a few times – your RP links have the Racecards path duplicated within the url and don’t open correctlyhttps://www.racingpost.com/racecards/37/newcastle/2018-12-01/714987
Elliot has said it’s likely Samcro will go to the fighting fifth!
SAMCRO VS BUVUER D’AIR – this is mouthwatering !
Can only see buvuer making him look silly though haha. Samcro probably go chasing after this
One of them will dodge this shown i reckon…though i hope im wrong as i’ll be there!
Have to admit i’d be siding with Buveur D’Air if it does happen.
BDA 4/5 + Samcro 5/2 best prices..
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!Hendo loves a flinch but at the same time, i’m not sure there’s much else he can go for with BDA.
Only other race suitable that is coming up over two miles would be the international at the December meeting, and that would be too close to the Christmas Hurdle.
Although saying the above, I’m looking forward to neither of them running because of the ground
Can’t see Samcro running in this, pitching against BD so early. If they are that desperate to keep him and Apple’s Jade apart, she will come over and she will probably win.
That would also be an interesting outcome Degaussed- I’m almost certain Mullin’s said he’s going to run Melon in the Hatton’s Grace which i think is altogether a bit mental- he wouldn’t convince me as a horse capable of staying 2m4 the way he travels.
Samcro would probably suit that race well, but having had a second thought about this since my last comment, i wonder would Elliot be happy enough to face BDA in the FF as long as the ground softens a little. I wouldn’t see it as a disgrace for Samcro to finish 2nd to BDA, as long as it wasn’t say 10 lengths 2nd! He’d find out whether they have made the totally wrong decision or if there’s still life in their CH challenge yet. I mean Melon was well beaten twice before his CH second vs lessor horses than BDA. I think sometimes it can be tough for second season hurdlers early doors, unless they are kept to simpler races like Mullins did (Well) with Faugheen in his first season in open company.
It could well take his air of invincibility away but i suspect that’s waining already anyway….
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!Agree with the above; Melon runs way to free for 2 and a half miles. The conditions and pace set in the Morgiana would have been perfect for him; think they weren’t happy with how he was working. Don’t think Mullins has an obvious contender for the Hatton’s Grace now that Faugheen ran at the weekend so he might try Melon over 2 and a half. Horses tend to settle better the older they get; bar Yorkhill
Samcro is more likely to run here than the Hatton’s Grace. They want him to be a Champion Hurdle horse so running him at 2 mile 4 won’t get him the experience he needs. Would love to see him take on BD with the run behind him. He’ll beat Bedrock if he goes to the FF because he’ll be off level weights; think he gave Bedrock 4 or 5 lb. Apples Jade will definitely be going to the Hattons Grace
Well, this could very well be a cracker. Buveur d’Air, Samcro, Bedrock, Summerville Boy. It seems like this is the most probable race for them.
Jack’s point about finding out the strength of Samcro early enough to allow a change to chasing is a good one. Elliott seems pretty bullish about running. I suspect Samcro’s main problem is that he is a stayer through and through. That doesn’t mean he can’t win at 2 miles, but he’s really up against it with the speed horse that is Buveur D’Air
Looking like we have a Race here.
Buveur Dair
Samcro
Bedrock
Summerville Boy
Blue et Rouge
Vision Des FlosAs I said on another thread (champion hurdle I think), where Ginge and tens of thousands of others had just taken, what I thought was a silly short price for Samcro in the champion hurdle. This was obviously before Samcro even ran this season and got beat.But after what the owners said about hurdling. I said that he’s very likely too still go chasing, whatever they said in early October, and Nathan had done the right thing backing him ‘any race’.
No chance against the Champion Hurdle winner here. No bet race for me, if I was a layer, I’d be taking every penny I could for Samcro at current prices. He’s a superstar alright, just not a 2m hurdling one.
I’m off too look for a price for him for the JLT & RSA right now
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