Fighting Fifth 2018

Another here for Bedrock. Extract from my blog:

Value horse number two is Bedrock, the first horse to take Samcro’s scalp when Samcro has stood up. And Bedrock beat him with comparative ease. Samcro put up little fight as Bedrock simply galloped past him. Few will have heard of Bedrock before this season, but he hasn’t sprung from nowhere. He was 3rd in a Grade 1 at Aintree on his 2nd start over hurdles, then won his next two before disappointing twice, after which he had wind surgery.

On his first run back after the op, he won easily at Musselburgh, then ran 3rd to Lalor in a Grade1 at Aintree in April 2018. First time out this season he was 4th to Sharjah in the Galway Hurdle, beaten just over 6 lengths. On his next run, a Grade 3 at Tipperary, he won very impressively, leaving the likes of Wicklow Brave and Arctic Fire in his wake.

Then came the defeat of Samcro, with Bedrock’s Galway conqueror Sharjah well beaten, despite being much better off at the weights.

Bedrock is 40/1 for the Champion Hurdle – a bonkers price given his form and his early promise. The price can be put down to two factors: 1 – his trainer, Iain Jardine, a comparatively ‘small’ operator training in the Scottish borders (at Len Lungo’s old yard). Year after year, betting traders working for the big bookies will overprice good horses with unpopular trainers. The latest example was a pretty much across the board 10/1 Arkle quote for Lalor, trained by Kaylee Woolacott, after he thrashed the best field ever assembled for the Grade 2 November Novices’ Chase at Cheltenham recently.

A lump of money seems the only thing that brings these traders to their senses and Lalor is now 5/1. After Saturday’s Fighting Fifth at Newcastle, where I expect Bedrock to go very close, if not win, I suspect he’ll be much shorter than 40/1 for the Champion Hurdle.

The second factor in his price is probably the fact that he was sold just before his last run to race in the USA, specifically to try to win the Grand National at Far Hills. The trainer is working on the new owners to consider the Champion Hurdle and after Saturday, I don’t think they’ll take much persuading. Their main target in the USA at Far Hills takes place in October, so a big run in March is hardly going to cause a major change in training plans. And what racing fan would need talking into trying to win one of the blue riband races at the Cheltenham Festival?

At 40/1. I’m more than happy to take the chance. I’m also willing to back Bedrock now for the Fighting Fifth on Saturday. His last 2 wins have been on good ground and if the BBC have it right on the weather front, there’s not much rain due there before Saturday – some ‘light rain’ Wednesday and Thursday with Friday and Saturday sunny.

And, if the ground turns to good, I think there’s a chance Samcro will miss the race. His defeat came on good ground, and he was withdrawn at Punchestown last weekend, the good ground cited as the reason. He looked flat footed behind Bedrock and it might be significant that this was his first experience of good ground. By the way, Bedrock took quite a bit of pulling up that day, something I always like to see. Saturday’s third favourite, Summerville Boy, is a horse I like a lot. But there’s a fair possibility that he is ground reliant and would need much more rain than is forecast.

There is still of course Buveur D’Air to overcome and that will not be easy. He was at his most impressive, visually, at least, in this race last year. But this running is much tougher, it’s his seasonal debut, and Bedrock will be hard fit.

Cannot see Good ground for Saturday judged by the amount of rain we have had up here the last 2-3 hours. Absolutely been tonking it down

Current weather forecast is for the east cost to see 15-30mm before Saturday afternoon, whereas the West might see as much as 75mm.

Newcastle might see 30mm, so it won’t be proper Good ground if the official going is G/S, S in places today ( Tuesday ), although it’s unlikely to be worse than Soft.

Yep agree Vautour- level weights, fitter Samcro, more cut in the ground and an uphill finish making it a “longer” 2 miles…think Samcro should reverse the result fairly easily.

I have no bet as think the market is right but I’m very interested in the Buv/Samcro faceoff. If Buv had also had a run I would be confident he would win…but from trainer’s comments on several occasions it seems he is a big lump who needs plenty of racing to keep the beef off…so Samcro’s best chance of beating him over 2m might be now, experience notwithstanding.

They are running scared of BVD, plain and simple. Put your hands up O’Leary, admit you made a mistake and send the horse you bought to be a Gold Cup horse over fences as was naturally intended. It was clear from his debut he had schooled over fences with the amount of air he was giving his hurdle.

Charlie knows his onions.

As I said on the champion hurdle thread, before he had even run this season… History has taught us via Mullins/Ricci etc, that it’s very unwise to listen too trainer and owner talk about superstar horses these days. It always comes back to bite us (punters) on the bum. The same people have always told us, he’s the Gold Cup winner 2020, and large wagers have been placed on that fact apparently. So to all of a sudden think, that he’s going too be a champion hurdler in 2019, well… He’s the second coming of Arkle then isn’t he. He can certainly do everything, according to ‘them’.

Yep, the 5lbs and better fitness will help Samcro, but is that enough to justify the price differential. Which of the two is improving at a greater rate (is Samcro improving at all?)

As to Samcro running scared of Buveur D’Air, I suspect not. Jack posted last week that they might well be using this race as a yardstick perhaps with a view to returning to the chasing idea if Buveur D’Air trounces him. I think that’s logical.

I’ll be surprised if Samcro is good enough at this stage of the season to beat Buveur D’Air at Newcastle but a good performance should give them encouragement for Cheltenham in March, where I think the champion could be vulnerable to a stronger stayer.

Samcro will have to improve his technique markedly and Elliott might not be the man for that. I can’t recall any top class 2 mile hurdler in the stable and the likely jockeys are also better in staying races.

Fascinating race