- This topic has 2,110 replies, 25 voices, and was last updated 3 years, 7 months ago by
.
- Posts
15 runners that is pretty bad considering how many 2yr old’s he must have on the grd. Truth is apart from 1 or 2 there not very good they don’t tend to progress that well. if it wasn’t for cracksman winning 4 group 1 for him then who knows.
Can’t say I am that surprised that he doesn’t have a lot of 2yr olds on the ground – he himself never made it to the track until August and I would imagine the vast majority of the mares he is being bred to are looking to their 3 yr old careers.
A lot of his offspring tend to stay well and that can mean that they are not overly precocious or ready to run in big numbers as 2 yr olds – would probably be interesting to compare his record 4 yrs in to the greats (at that same stage) to see how he stacks up, but people seem to be quick to try and put his record down as if they want him to fail as a stallion.
With slightly better luck Cracksman could have easily been a dual classic winner as a 3 yr old and for me with Frankel hitting most targets (at a higher % level comparatively speaking to the greats) you really could only point to him just missing a domestic classic winner and a top rated 2 yr old from his stallion cv so far.
I would be intrigued to see how the 15 runners this year compares to the last 2 years.
I do think there will be some late 2yo winners that will prove very talented of course…
My point was not intended to write him off, it is something i found very interesting. He might well have been a late 2yo himself, but Kingman only had 2 runs as a 2yo as well, and he’s doing very well. I know KIngman is a different horse entirely, the turn of foot of a sprinter etc. etc. but when looking at tip top stallions you have to consider everything.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!Having 2yo winners is equally as important as having any winner, not all frankels sold will be capable of winning classics or group races, owners wont want to buy a foal or a yearling that have to be held until a 3yo before they run in a race lol
Its fantastic hes done so well but its an extremely valid point to make jack and if for some reason down the line his offspring tend not to be making te track until there 3yo season, the stud fee will only come down.
So to say its nothing to worry about is… well…. worrying…
Comparing frankel to galileo at this stage is a bit pointless, its a bit like comparing cracksmans achievements to frankels, total and utter rubbish……irrespective of how hes done (which was always going to be well because of how good he was and the mares that would be sent to him) saying hes had more winners at this point doesnt prove anything in terms of quality and the longevity of his stallion career, that will come from the success of stock, which initially will be based on 2yos. Yes i know hes been successful upto this point, But 2yo successes will be absolutely vital to ever be compared to the daddy that is galileo.
Wasnt aware of that stat jack, thanks for that, one to keep an eye on.
26 2yo starters worldwide in 2018 which is low but not shockingly low (STS 33, Dubawi 43, Galileo 52).
17 wins (14, 28, 30).
In the broader context he’s third in global earnings (all runners) 2018 amongst European sires behind Dubawi and Galileo. Obviously he’s had significantly less runners than either of those two as he only has three crops. In terms of earnings per starter he is second only to Dubawi. Cracksman represents about 20% of those earnings which is low for a top sire (Benbatl represents 25% of Dubawi’s total earnings)
It’s not really possible to continue claiming he has failed at stud. Nor is he ruling the world yet, but he may well do, next year will be interesting for sure.
Neither of us have claimed he’s failing Biskybat- we are just pointing something out about his 2yo figures- i forgot to mention the person who tweeted it had mentioned it was just UK+IRE.
It’s possible to be critical, after all we are dealing with a horse with a 175k stud fee. He is my favourite horse i have ever seen but it doesn’t mean we can’t be a bit more realistic about things.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!As I’ve written on here before, this 2-year-old season was always likely to be his lowest as his numbers dropped off a bit after his first two seasons. There was a worry that he hadn’t “stamped his stock” and there were some mixed reviews coming from the breeding sheds and sales rings. Then his progeny started hitting the track and the results started to show for themselves and the numbers went back up again as did the stud price. Expect to see substantially more 2 year-olds next year.
If we are talking about quality, well he has reached 20 Northern Hemisphere Group winners faster than any other European sire in history and has 28% black type performers to runners. No problem there I think.
Saying all that and in answer to Jack’s very valid point, I think it’s fair to say that he is not the producer of precocious 2-year-olds that I had rather hoped he might be and, as I’ve also said many times, that could mean he produces few Classic winners. His tend to need more time and they are mostly staying types rather than sprinters or milers. This year there is a very nice filly called East who is heading for the Breeders Cup but, apart from that, there is nothing much else to get the pulse racing..yet (though I see he has had a few first-time-out winners this week).
His progeny sold very well again last week at the sales so I don’t see that stud fee going down just yet and, as Biskybat stated, he finished 3rd in the European sires list with only Dubawi and Galileo ahead of him, both of whom had close to twice as many runners.
If I’m honest after Royal Ascot I was expecting a bit more from this season and there have been a few disappointments but he has at least finished it strongly. He may not be ruling the world yet but he’s up there with the best of them and this story has only just begun….
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
I’m on East at 14/1 Joni…couldn’t believe her price
Jac.Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...As I’ve written on here before, this 2-year-old season was always likely to be his lowest as his numbers dropped off a bit after his first two seasons. There was a worry that he hadn’t “stamped his stock” and there were some mixed reviews coming from the breeding sheds and sales rings. Then his progeny started hitting the track and the results started to show for themselves and the numbers went back up again as did the stud price. Expect to see substantially more 2 year-olds next year.
Thank you Joni, i didn’t realise this. Very interesting point.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!Good to see a degree of realism and balanced appraisal appearing on this thread now.
Notwithstanding the stats, this year, I think, has been a major disappointment. Yes, there have been the plus points – notably Royal Ascot and Cracksman’s second Champion. But, there have been a lot of disappointments too. The chief one for me is the ‘progression’ of Crop 1 from 3 to 4. Much was made early on of the Frankel’s needing time, and of them making up into much better 4yos than 3yos. Cracksman and Eminent were the two flag bearers here, but there were others (e.g. Monarch’s Glen, Mirage Dancer, and lesser lights like Atty Persse). In all honesty, none of them has gone on as many might have hoped, and temperament seems to have been a big issue with at least the first two, and – I think – Monarch’s Glen as well (even though he was gelded!). The lack of European classic winners after two crops is another major issue. As is the small number even running in classics this year (Elarqam & Rostropovich were both placed but Zabriskie and Ejtyah hardly did much to advertise their sire). Personally, I don’t buy the ‘early days’ argument here. Two classic crops is c. 220 foals (about half of the entirety that a great sire like Mill Reef sired in a life time, and he had two classic winners from his second crop of about 40 foals). Then there is the current 2yo issue. My own view on the relative lack of 2yo runners is that trainers have worked out not to push Frankel’s progeny too hard too soon. The evidence of what happens when you do that is there with the first crop – none of the 2yos that were exciting folk and winning group races as 2yos went on. Much more likely, imv, is that the best ones from Crop 3 will appear as per Without Parole – on the A/W sometime in the winter. My final concern from this season on the track is what has gone on with Nelson, who has been used as the chief pacemaker for Kew Gardens. In other words, the capacity of many of Frankel’s stock to gallop, and keep on galloping, but without a turn of foot, has not gone unnoticed. This is the horse that ran Roaring Lion so close in the Royal Lodge, but the difference in their 3yo careers is striking. I see Nelson is entered in the Tatts HiT Sales. I just hope someone buys him who will race him on merit, so that we can see what level of horse he really is.
Joni mentions the yearling sales. I thought this year was decidedly ‘mixed’. Yes the average is still OK – albeit a long way ‘south’ of Dubawi and Galileo. But, it is the lowest average yet achieved and there were distinct signs at Tatts Book I of a cooling market (not only in relation to the Big Two but also Kingman). Nothing sold (i.e. excluding vendor buy-backs) made over a million, but there were several that were really struggling to attract bids. With one the auctioneer was pretty much despairing – ‘a Frankel, but sell him I do, sold at 85 …’ . I found it highly instructive that MJR went home with 3 from Book 1, none of them costing over 200k. A fee of 175k looks inflated to me currently, both in terms of track performance and sales results.
Really interesting post Titus.
Herculean and Surya out today, could be a nice end of season double for our boy.
JacThings turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...Very well said Titus, i’m a big Frankel fan as you know but have been a little disappointed this year, only Royal Ascot and Cracksman winning the Champion again has eased it. I won’t give up on him though as it’s still early days, he’s still doing well in other countries this year.
The Grand Visir won nicely yesterday and is also in the H.I.T sales lot 874, not seen Nelson though.
All comers, all ground, all beaten
@chaos –
Here you are: the link to all the Frankel’s entered in Tatts Autumn HiThttp://www.tattersalls.com/autumnhit-search-lots.php
But, I see that Nelson, unfortunately, has been withdrawn … I really do hope he isn’t slated for another year of being Kew Gardens’ pacemaker and that he is allowed to run on merit.
There are some interesting other entries that were originally catalogued and remain for sale, including The Grand Visir and the much anticipated, but very disappointing, son of Frankel and Midday, Midi. It will be interesting to see where they head to – my guess is either NH or a low-level stallion job somewhere.
The December Breeding Stock sale catalogue is also just out. There are some Frankel mares in there, including from Juddmonte, so again it will be interesting to see who buys them and at what level of the market. Also catalogued is Frankel’s half-brother, by Oasis Dream, Morpheus – who hasn’t been setting the world alight with his first runners.Thanks for the link Titus, i think The Grand Visir will go NH racing and like you said Midi to stallion somewhere, shame about Nelson though he deserves better than playing fodder role for Coolmore.
All comers, all ground, all beaten
Titus Oates: “Good to see a degree of realism and balanced appraisal appearing on this thread now. Not withstanding the stats, this year, I think, has been a major disappointment.”
I am not sure that you can have realism and a balanced appraisal without putting the statistics, data and facts front and centre.
Disappointment appears as a human trait when there is a negative difference between two sets of data: “What do I expect (or want?) to happen”, and “What actually happened?” If there is a difference, it may be because of expectations being too high, as well as outcomes being too low. A couple of years ago before any Frankel offsrping hit the track there was a discussion on TRF about whether Frankel or Australia would turn out to be the better sire. I did a little bit of research about the success of top ten-or-twenty highest-ever rated male racehorses, and the ten-or-twenty top-rated Derby winners. The conclusion was that it was odds of 9/4 against either of them being a success.
To expand on biskybat’s earlier post, from the Thoroughbred Daily News (TDN) European Sire List for 2018 with data up to 29/10/18, the first four by money won are Dubawi, Galileo, Frankel and Sea The Stars.
Looking at those four stallions’ stats in 2018 in more detail:
Worldwide Winnings ($ mill.) – Dubawi 18.1, Galileo 14.0, Frankel 10.0, Sea The Stars 9.3
Winnings per starter ($ thou.) – Dubawi 67.9, Frankel 63.0, Sea The Stars 50.5, Galileo 47.3
Black Type Winners (%) – Galileo 12.5, Frankel 11.3, Dubawi 11.2, Sea The Stars 3.8
Black Type Horses (%) – Frankel 23.9, Galileo 19.3, Dubawi 16.1, Sea The Stars 10.9
Group Winners (%) – Galileo 9.1, Dubawi 7.9, Frankel 7.5, Sea The Stars 3.2
Group One Winners (%) – Frankel 2.5, Dubawi 2.3, Galileo 2.0, Sea The Stars 1.1
Winners (%) – Frankel 54.7, Dubawi 47.6, Sea The Stars 43.0, Galileo 40.5The latest APEX stallion stats still have Frankel at the top of the tree for producing high-class high-earning offspring.
Because this thread is about Frankel, and I am very interested in him, if I focussed only on his offspring I could in some ways be very disappointed because of the number of times I have wanted one of his offspring to do well and they have failed. But looking at this data reminds me that other stallions have their fallibilities too. I think all this type of data shows at the moment is, that in many respects, Frankel is in the same ballpark as Galileo and Dubawi. I am not disappointed in that.
As for picking a group of promising thee-year-olds who might progress at four, we must remember the reality that Frankel himself progressed by only four pounds, according to RPR and Timeform, and by five pounds on BHA official ratings. Of last year’s bunch of fairly good representatives, Monarch’s Glen and Atty Persse progressed by four pounds, Mirage Dancer by six, and Weekender by ten. That would put the likes of Nelson, Rostropovich, Elarqam and Wadilsafa in the picture for some big races next year. There were of course some who regressed. I am not sure I would call that disappointing.
As for comparing with Mill Reef; he was a near perfect racehorse; from two years old, especially in the Gimcrack over six furlongs, through three with a magnificent Derby and Arc double, and on to four with an imperious ten-length victory in tha Prix Ganay. But I am not sure he was a great sire. He was champion twice, each time in the year of his two Derby winners. But in the non-Derby years there was one seventh, one tenth, and the rest outside the top twelve. With all stallions restricted to a maximum of forty foals per year it was a very different world then. In the ten years from his first Derby winner to his second, twenty different sires filled the first three places in the annual UK/Ire stallion lists. In modern times like the last ten years, it is much less diverse with only eleven stallions filling the top three places over that time. It is a surprise that Mill Reef could not make it into the top three (or even top twelve) so frequently. At the moment it looks as if Frankel is getting a more consistent percentage of top class performers, but we will not know properly yet, since he has had only two crops of three-year-old so far.
The ‘early days’ argument is there to be had. We will not know the outcome for a few more years yet. As other people have said, breeders do not firmly decide what type of mare (pedigree or racing talents) will best suit a stallion until the progengy are racing. Before that it is just educated guesswork. Now that much more information is available about how the Frankels run, the type of mare sent to him may change.
This will be an interesting debate over the next few years.
That’s a great post Marginal Value. I’d seen some similar figures. Galileo, like all great stallions do, is getting older. Dubawi, and quickly the kings son Frankel, are starting to over take him IMO. Give Frankel or Dubawi, Coolmore’s superstar mares every year. What would happen. Even the very best, which he has been without question, will get older and decline. That’s a fact of nature. Three or four years ago he dominated everything. That is starting to wain, both Dubawi, and now Frankel are catching him up hand over fist. They have youth on their side, with their very best crops you’d hope still to come. I would not be surprised in the slightest if Dubawi and Frankel command as big as, or bigger fees next year. If I had a free nomination for a mare next year, and the choice was Galileo, Dubawi, Sea The Stars or Frankel. I’d go with one of the last named three. Same choice two years ago, Galileo every time.
NewYork, you could not handle in any way shape or form what I smoke. You’d be curled up in the corner.
Jac.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.