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Not only Atty Persse on the move:
Don't miss Wild Card Lot 25 TOULIFAUT – Gr.3 winner & unbeaten 2yo filly by Frankel, selling @InfoArqana's Arc Sale 1 October, Chantilly pic.twitter.com/oph4tUglSQ
— EBN (@bloodstocknews) September 21, 2016
It will be interesting to see what she fetches, and who buys her.
Looking at the pictures of Eminent – 3 x 3 Sadler’s Wells, plus Nureyev – so 4 x 5 and 5 x 4 ND. Is it any wonder he looks like this?
Interesting to look at Jac’s pictures of Frankel as a ‘let down’ stallion – he’s very short coupled and power packed, not to mention with a big gut on him (so, he still likes to eat!). I instantly thought ‘miler/10f producer’. Seeing him looking like this led to some delving in the picture galleries, and here I find myself coming back to the ones that are around of ND himself. Frankel is a different bay (the standard bay you get from the Galileo/Danehill cross – i.e. the Ballydoyle/Coolmore ‘bay’) but look at the two of them in terms of conformation and you can see where the back end on Frankel comes from (and the tail)! Plus, the look is all ND. The comments in the link about ND’s temperament are also instructive … this is what is coming through in the progeny, but then that isn’t surprising given the number of repetitions in these current pedigrees.
Looking at the replay, I think that this is more a case of others catching her up than of her running flat – or even trainer error. The first thing that struck me visually looking at the Rockfel was that she didn’t dominate the field size-wise, whereas when you look back at the Princess Margaret video she did – that plus the stride length (i.e. relative power) are what produces that impressive win. She was head and shoulders the biggest and strongest of those fillies at Ascot, whereas today, in racing, the field looked much of a muchness size wise and she was beaten (easily) by a filly with a superior ‘kick’. This is what happens at this time of year – early season relative maturity doesn’t necessarily travel through to the end of the season and earlier form lines (FE v Miss Infinity v Nation’s Alexander) may be misleading. For me, this is as good as she currently is – a good filly but not a very good one. Maybe she will improve over the winter, but I’m not convinced.
As Joe has said, TRF has had some good content this flat season, but seeing these pix today says everything about why NH trumps the flat every time for me.
The King of Lambourn is back in!
Look who I saw this morning, Sprinter Sacre looking amazing! @CarolineMould1 #preseason #hack @sevenbarrows pic.twitter.com/Fnh3g42Og5
— Camilla Henderson (@camillahendo) September 15, 2016
Beautiful morning @camillahendo at your father Nicki Henderson 's yard#sprinter getting washed off! pic.twitter.com/kcnI4O3MuB
— Armstrong Equine Art (@ArmstrongArt) September 15, 2016
Had a bit of a rummage Crepello in economic/social history terrain –
http://www.sports.stir.ac.uk/staff/Wray_Vamplew.phpThere’s a chapter – Captains Courageous: Gentlemen Riders in British Horse Racing, 1866 – 1914 (by Wray Vamplew and Joyce Kay) that might be of interest. It’s in a book on Amateurism in British Sport. You ought to be able to get to it via this link – https://books.google.co.uk/books?id=7V3dAAAAQBAJ&pg=PA26&lpg=PA26&dq=joyce+kay+horse+racing&source=bl&ots=sgnUkzc5Fi&sig=423go2puY8iRTm-wKqKuwmYIj_8&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwiK9oiwp5LPAhUDJsAKHRSbDiQ4ChDoAQgoMAE#v=onepage&q=joyce%20kay%20horse%20racing&f=false
The pdf of the chapter comes up as well when you search for it.
Vamplew/Kay have an Encyclopedia of Horse Racing – scrolling through what is available to view of that online has quite an interesting chronology of key events in the Victorian period (beyond the usual horses/jockeys focus). I would imagine that that could spin out into quite an interesting lecture.
The Scientific American link takes us back to the GG and the ‘speed gene’ thread of earlier in the summer. I think of ‘engine’ in terms of cardiovascular system, so a combination of lungs, heart and VO2 max and a body’s capacity to work. This runs across humans and equines – and some of the most advanced stuff on this is on the various cycling forums (think all the stuff on whether Froome could put out that kind of wattage day in day out in the TdF without ‘assistance’). With horses, it’s also important to factor in that the power comes from the back end (i.e. the hind quarters), so a horse that is ‘weak behind’ is never going to put out as much power. Stride length is also important. When you look at a horse like Frankel what you see is a massive stride length (a bit like Bolt and Farah – they take 1 stride for everyone else’s 2!), a great big back end on him and – I would bet – a great cardiovascular system, which I do think he is passing on. So, I’d say it’s the combination of all that that made him the racehorse that he was, rather than heart alone.
Interesting bit in that final link from KS on stayers and heart size – I do remember AOB talking about Yeats as having a massive heart on him.
Think Ginge is right here MV – the problem is the myth, how it connects to the intersection between the sales and the racing programme (where the emphasis is more and more on speed) and thence to what breeders do. For a staying horse who favours slower ground and with no obvious ‘kick’ it’s all too easy to be labelled as ‘slow’ and for the patronage to quickly become NH mares, which then becomes self-perpetuating. Look at the Coolmore stallions and how their predominantly 12-14f performers are mostly on the NH roster. Even Dylan Thomas, who won the Irish Champion, is now partly on the NH roster; all the stayers – sadly – were straight to NH. This is why the 10f win is seen to matter. Personally, I think this is a real retrogressive step. Stayers matter for the good of the TB – & Harzand is a tough, gutsy staying type who grinds it out. I like him for all those reasons. It sounds like he’s recovering fast – which is good news. Unfortunately, though, running him in the Irish Champion will have left an indelible impression of slowness for breeders – which even a win in the Arc couldn’t erase. At least he has an owner who understands the value of a stayer.
Nice performance there by Atty Persse – quite reminiscent in its way of Frankel first time out. One thing I did think in running was ‘he’s small’ (first foal I believe). But, I liked him – and he looks way more tractable than so many of these colts. For those who are interested, this is his pedigree
http://www.pedigreequery.com/atty+persse2Dam sire is Norse Dancer, so Sharpen-Up, Diesis, Halling & very little of ND in the bottom half of the pedigree. A nice old bottom line.
@ Joni/Steve – Mehmas (guess he should be in the 2yo thread, but hey it is here). Not impressed with this either. It’s one thing to retire them early through injury – although even then I would say that they should prove their soundness at 2 and 3 (and actually 4). I can see why Coolmore did it with the Holy Roman Emperor/’George’ substitution. But this looks like a trend to me – Zebedee, Sir Prancealot and now Mehmas, incidentally all Hannon/Tally Ho – aim has to be 1st season champion sire 2020 surely? Looks to me as if they’ve spotted a lucrative niche here.
As for Cunco – the thought had crossed my mind that he ought to be gelded, but then I read the article in today’s RP re the Chilean ownership and their plans in Europe, plus scale of investment in Chile. Who knows, perhaps he could end up there?
I agree that Harzand would have been much more suited to Donny – but I’m not sure this was entirely about 10f and commercial appeal, important as that is (viz. Postponed). I think it had as much to do with DW wanting an Irish Champion on the CV, plus the AK is not a one for running them in the Leger that often (think Shergar). I thought they were much more likely to have gone the Niel route, as this is the way the AK tends to go with his Arc candidates, but I guess it was a case of more potentially to gain from staying in Ireland. Whatever, it was clear even from the off that Harzand was struggling to go the pace – and I think this was the case before he got struck into.
Hope the horse is OK. He seems to get a bit battered and bruised in his races, and was reported stiff etc. after the Derby as well – and also there was the foot issue beforehand.
For those who are interested –
I have looked at the pedigrees of the mares producing Crop 1 & Crop 2. Rather than do a conventional in-breeding analysis focused on specific individuals, I’ve broken these down to look at the number of times particular male lines appear in the mare’s pedigree. I’ve paid most attention to the number of lines of Northern Dancer and his male line descendants, and of Mr Prospector and his male line descendants. This makes for some pretty interesting reading:
In Crop 1, 8 of the mares (7%) have no occurrence of Northern Dancer, Mr Prospector or Rainbow Quest in their 5-generation pedigree; 38 (32%) have 1 line of any of these; 30 (25%) have 2; 32 (27%) have 3 and 10 (8%) have 4 or more. In Crop 2 there are 7 (6%) with 0, 23 (21%) with 1, 43 (39%) with 2, 23 (31%) with 3 and 15 (14%) with 4 or more. Most of these involve ND and Mr P rather than RQ.
Crop 1 has 45 foals (38%) that have both Northern Dancer and Mr Prospector in their dam’s pedigree, and often more than 1 x 1. Crop 2 has 46 (41%).
Put Frankel’s pedigree on top of this and you have another 2 lines of Northern Dancer to add in to the mix plus another occurrence of Mr Prospector. So, put that to mares with even just 2 lines [the main combinations are 2 x ND, 1 x ND/1 x Mr P, or 2 x Mr P] and you end up with pedigrees that are typically on the lines of 4 x ND; 3 x ND/2 x Mr P; and 2 x ND/3 x Mr P. 4 or more lines, of course, takes this way further.
The broodmare sire stats for Crops 1 & 2 combined look like this:
Darshaan (9); Danehill Dancer (8); Pivotal (8); Oasis Dream (7); Kingmambo (7); Dansili (5); Giant’s Causeway (5); Green Desert (5); Distant View (4); Mark of Esteem (4); Linamix (4); Anabaa (3); Empire Maker (3); Indian Ridge (3); Invincible Spirit (3); Marju (3); Montjeu (3); More than Ready (3); Red Ransom (3); Sadler’s Wells (3); Selkirk (3); Singspiel (3); Storm Cat (3); Woodman (3); Zafonic (3); Affirmed (2); Dalakhani (2); Dashing Blade (2); Daylami (2); Deputed Testimony (2); Diesis (2); Dubawi (2); Dynaformer (2); Efisio (2); El Prado (2); Elusive Quality (2); Encosta de Lago (2); Henrythenavigator (2); Highest Honor (2); Kayhasi (2); Lomitas (2); Machiavellian (2); Monsun (2); Mr Greeley (2); Observatory (2); Oratorio (2); Pulpit (2); Rahy (2); Rainbow Quest (2); Thunder Gulch (2); Tiger Hill (2); Vettori (2); Zabeel (2). All the rest have just 1: Beat Hollow, Charnwood Forest, Chester House, Danetime, Deploy, Desert Prince, Diktat, Dr Devious, Dubai Millenium, Duke of Marmalade, Excellent Art, Fasilyev, Foxhound, Gold Away, Grand Lodge, Green Tune, Hennessy, Inchinor, Inktikhab, Kendargent, Kris S, Lear Fan, Lemon Drop Kid, Malibu Moon, Manduro, Medicean, Miswaki, Mizzen Mast, Mountain Cat, Nureyev, Oflee Wild, Peinte Celebre, Primo Dominie, Raven’s Pass, Redback, Red Clubs, Redoubte’s Choice, Royal Academy, Shirocco, Seeking the Gold, Sevres Rose, Shamardal, Shareef Dancer, Smart Strike, Spectrum, Sri Pekan, Stravinsky, Street Cry, Suave Dancer, Tamino Gimlet, Testa Rossa, Unbridled’s Song, Var, Whipper, Zamindar.
The vast majority of these Frankel sons and daughters are going to need some outcrosses fast …Interesting thread.
For those who might be interested:
An earlier, more detailed, piece by Paul Haigh that may be of interest:& another that gives a real sense of the trajectory – a Q&A with Michael Wallace
http://www.thoroughbreddailynews.com/category/q-a/Have only just caught up on the replay of Seven Heavens – & is he one ‘naughty, boisterous boyo’! OK, the race itself is a non-event but in terms of interesting things to observe there’s a lot going on. This is the one who is the carbon copy of Frankel himself; he spends the best part of 2.5f well and truly lit up; yes he comes there cruising, but then in the last furlong plus there is none of the power through the line that was there on his first start. In part that can be explained by the antics in the first half of the race but I think he was running on empty at the end. Maybe this is why JG didn’t enter him in the Royal Lodge – ok, there’s stamina in the bottom line but Heaven Sent is a Pivotal (and they can be all things).
In sum, there’s plenty of raw ability there but this will all come to nothing unless they can teach him to settle. Like others, I’m not at all convinced that this race will have done him any good whatsoever. Watching this it was like what Frankel might have been, had it not been for Shane Fetherstonehaugh’s patience and hands, plus a glimpse of all too much of Kind’s influence – which seems to be coming out in the colts.
I think we can now all see what JG was referring to a few months ago when he called them ‘wilful – almost too wilful’ and added, ‘they’d run through a wall for you’. It speaks volumes that JG is putting up Havlin on him, who I seem to recall he mentioned at Royal Ascot as being the key work rider on the quality horses for the yard.
Joni is so right to keep emphasising the masterclass that HRAC gave in his handling of Frankel’s 2yo career. I keep thinking back to Frankel’s second race @ Donny (a 7f conditions race) – small field, straight track, and strong opposition that ensured there was sufficient pace for Frankel not to mess around and learn bad habits. Perhaps they thought the opposition wouldn’t cut up as much with the prize money on offer but I can’t work out why they chose Goodwood for Race 2. Frankel didn’t get to go there until his first Sussex Stakes, by which time he was getting to be far more tractable.
Next up in the Training Frankels challenge we have Elsworth & Haggis … on which there are some choice quotes on the RP this evening from DE!
http://www.racingpost.com/news/live.sd?event_id=19731124&category=0
@ Cruella – yes, agreed! I have been crunching away through the pedigrees that are in the public domain and Crop 2 only has one Selkirk mare (but with loads of ND on the bottom). I can’t work out why there are not more Sharpen Up’s coming in to Frankel given how Doubly Sure/Diesis/Kris seems to work with Galileo.Great post MV. I hadn’t gone into as much depth but one of the striking things about this first crop of Frankel’s is that there is this category of highly in-bred individuals in there, as well as the more conventional 3 x 4 crosses and the ones that have a completely different bottom line. I’m not sure how specific, or not, to Frankel this is since I’ve not looked at other current stallions in such a way. But, given how the mares for the first crop were chosen to give him the maximum chance of succeeding, I wonder how much pedigree was part of the thinking – i.e. were they also thinking ‘what will happen if we go 3 x 3 etc’? One of the things that interests me in terms of racing performance is whether there will be a difference between these groups. At the back of my mind is the thought that the better Mill Reef’s in terms of racing ability in general came from the stouter/less fashionably bred mares, like Hardiemma. Looking at Frankel in terms of pedigree that is what I’d expect to work for him too.
Whilst still on Frankel as a sire – Joni raised the fillies point, and I agree. So far (admittedly small numbers) the fillies we have seen are better than the colts, and look easier to deal with. Then there is no doubt about it that these Frankel’s come in all shapes and sizes, so he is throwing to the mare. All of which suggests to me that, as a stallion, Frankel may be more likely to succeed as a broodmare sire. Secretariat springs to mind here.
Slightly off-topic, but I would love to see a proper analysis of the entire UK TB breeding population and change over time, say from 1970 onwards. Has anyone done this? For me, it’s not in-breeding to a specific individual that is so much the issue as line breeding based on the sons of Northern Dancer. My practical knowledge on this is not horse-specific but the general rule of thumb for line breeding other species is ‘in’/’in’/’out’ over 3-generations – do anything different to that and you get big problems in terms of general health as well as a decline in fertility (first visible in the females). With horses there is also the soundness issue (bone density) that connects to too much in-breeding.As well as the business angle, the long term aim vis a vis Mongolian grasslands and racing/breeding is really interesting. In returning to one of the primary horse rearing areas of the world, this endeavour has shades of Godolphin, where a key motivation has always been to reclaim the TB for Arab cultures. But this is no Dubai. Rather, the turn to Mongolia (i.e involvement of a third country) is similar to many other areas of Chinese business investment. There is every sign here that TB globalisation is now seeing what elsewhere is called ‘the China Factor’ – in which case this is an arrival that will be as profound for the TB industry as that of Godolphin.
As the comments below the line on the You Tube vid say – shades of Secretariat and Spectacular Bid. A one horse race. Amazing performance.
Arrogate & Flintshire on the same card – a big day for Juddmonte in the US.
I think this thread connects with the one on ITV …
For me, most horse racing books published by commercial publishers are disappointing. Partly that’s a function of type; partly it’s about who gets to write them (and what they can write).
There are three main categories: ‘horse-specific’ (aimed at the horse fan); auto/bio of key jockey, trainer and allied others, such as commentators (mostly ghosted), and annual gazetteer publications (e.g. Racehorses in Training). Leaving the latter alone as a special case, authors tend to be a mixture of racing journalists and more general sports writers. Largely, they come from what might be termed an ‘inner circle’; most therefore need to keep their lines of access to the industry open. Plus, for the publisher, there is the legal framework to consider. This has an effect on what is finally approved for publication. Occasionally disputes between subject and author reach the public domain, such as with the Henry Cecil bio. More often, they don’t – and the result is the kind of bland, rose-tinted, celebratory and often sycophantic publication we can all think of. Interesting exceptions to this are a couple of books where anthropologists (outsiders) have turned their research skills to look at the racing industry. They are Kate Fox’s The Racing Tribe and Rachel Cassidy’s The Sport of Kings. I’ve found the first of these the best book to give to people I know who don’t understand horse racing – it’s spot on.
Other than these, there are two stand-out ‘horse’ ones for me – Ivor Herbert’s Arkle & Richard Burridge’s The Grey Horse (Dessie, of course). The more recent one on Foinaven is also well above average. They are all horse books, more than picture books with a few bits of factual text thrown in (the norm in the ‘horse’ category).
In terms of racing/breeding, Philip Jodidio’s A Racing and Breeding Tradition – on the history of the Aga Khan Studs to the present day is a magnificent insight into a long view of bloodstock.If anyone missed this here’s the replay:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/olympics/36691138Big Star, the Sprinter of show jumping :)
