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Chris McGrath on ATR forum suggesting Harzand would have been better employed in Yorkshire yesterday.
In some respects I agree but in terms of the Arc preparation Leopardstown was probably a better call. However, wouldn’t a Leger success be better than going to the Arc with a shot.
Everything is easy in hindsight, if you knew he was going to be well beaten in Ireland you would take the Leger option which looked the ideal race for him but he was a short price fav for the Irish race.
Think bolting up in the Leger would have been a much better prep for the Arc than finishing 8th in Ireland but as a stallion in waiting they would have been keen to win over 10fs if possible.
Just catching up on racing news. RP Race report says Harzand was struck into. I don’t know if this came to light after the immediate post-race post mortems.
The Racing Post report this morning says Harzand was lame when assessed by the vet after the race.
Presumably not serious though as connections were saying he’ll be back soon.
We don’t know for sure when Harzand got injured, but his short price for the Champion yesterday had nothing to do with his real chance. I would’ve wanted 6/1 to back him. The way he runs at 1m4f suggests it’s a bare minimum this late in the season. imo In both Derbys he wouldn’t have won had they been 10f races. Trouble these days is breeders always want a sire with a 10f Group 1 on their cv. Harzand is a 12f to 14+f horse, not 10 to 12f.
Should he have gone to Donny instead? Well would’ve been long odds-on and won the St Leger in a canter if it wasn’t for breeding considerations. imo Yes, but this is a business as well as a sport.
Value Is EverythingWe don’t know for sure when Harzand got injured, but his short price for the Champion yesterday had nothing to do with his real chance. I would’ve wanted 6/1 to back him.
As someone who apparently appreciates value and percentages you should have surely have been laying till the cows come home then at a little over 2/1
We don’t know for sure when Harzand got injured, but his short price for the Champion yesterday had nothing to do with his real chance. I would’ve wanted 6/1 to back him.
As someone who apparently appreciates value and percentages you should have surely have been laying till the cows come home then at a little over 2/1
Am not a great layer of horses Yeats, it always worries me someone somewhere knows something. Prefer backing to laying but did lay Harzand to lose over £200 with quite a number of the others who were excellent prices in my workings out (probably due to Harzand’s poor one and couldn’t see why New Bay was so short either). I backed both Almanzor and Found along with Hawkbill as main bets, Minding and Highland Reel as savers with a speculative few quid on Sir Issac Newton. I tend to back the race, not the horse.
Value Is EverythingI agree that Harzand would have been much more suited to Donny – but I’m not sure this was entirely about 10f and commercial appeal, important as that is (viz. Postponed). I think it had as much to do with DW wanting an Irish Champion on the CV, plus the AK is not a one for running them in the Leger that often (think Shergar). I thought they were much more likely to have gone the Niel route, as this is the way the AK tends to go with his Arc candidates, but I guess it was a case of more potentially to gain from staying in Ireland. Whatever, it was clear even from the off that Harzand was struggling to go the pace – and I think this was the case before he got struck into.
Hope the horse is OK. He seems to get a bit battered and bruised in his races, and was reported stiff etc. after the Derby as well – and also there was the foot issue beforehand.
Harzand at ten furlongs to increase stallion appeal is a repeat of a myth.
Five years ago there was a comment on TRF: ““True the King George is the 2nd best all-aged 12f event in Europe, but the sad truth is that 10f is where horses really have to show their mettle to enhance their stallion prospects.”
I posted then in response:
Is it a myth that winning over 10 furlongs (especially a Group 1 race) would enhance a stud career, and increase income for the stallion owner? Such a win might enhance a stallion’s prospects; until the mare owners see the reality of runners on the racecourse.
Take all of the top fifteen sires (by total prize money) in Britain last year. They include Coolmore’s three most expensive sires, Darley’s two most expensive sires, and the top three most expensive sires standing in Britain. They are a very representative bunch of commercially successful stallions.
Of the fifteen:
…. only FOUR ever ran over 10 furlongs
…. only ONE won a race over 10 furlongs – Galileo won the Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial (G3)
…. none, obviously, won a Group 1 over 10 furlongsFrom a long list of very good racehorses to win top-class 10 furlong races in the last two decades, only Giant’s Causeway has gone on to be an exceptional sire. There have been a few average ones, and many very ordinary ones.
Why do people think that high-class 10 furlong winners make good sires?”
The situation has hardly changed in the last five years. The list of top fifteen stallions of 2015 has a similar profile, with the addition of one very good 10 furlong winner in Shamardal, and near the bottom of the list, the two one-hit wonders of 2015, both of whom are no longer with us, Halling (Jack Hobbs) and Singspiel (Solow).
Just have a look at the winners lists of the four best ten furlong races in the UK, Champion, International, Eclipse and Prince of Wales Stakes over the last four decades. Only Ela-Mana-Mou, Halling, Singspiel, Caerleon, Giant’s Causeway, Nayef, Authorized, Sea The Stars, New Approach, Sadlers Wells had good or better stallion careers. Many of the winners who turned out to be good stallions had better form over longer distances. The six who were better over longer did not need the ten furlong success to get breeders to book them in their first few years.
There is big money involved in breeding racehorses, and decision makers wanting to ignore reality is an unlikely scenario. Where is the evidence that winning at ten furlongs confers any added kudos on potential stallions?
Winning a Group 1 10f race does not make the horse a better sire. I agree it is a “myth” in a way, but breeders only have to believe in that myth for it to become true. If breeders can see some good early results then having a 10f Group 1 is unimportant. But a purely 12f racehorse (or 12f to 14f) thought of without a turn of foot is often thought of as “slow”… He can struggle getting good mares in those first two years at stud and poor mares can lead to poor early results… And that in turn can hurt a stallion’s future career by only attracting poor mares. Am sure a good stallion will eventually rise to the top, but it can take time and stallion owners don’t want it to take time because time is money. A 10f Group 1 can improve a stallion’s prospects by promoting the myth of speed. I would say because of this myth racehorses effective at 10 to 12 furlongs do better at stud than racehorses seen as slow 12f types or 12 to 14f types. Some racehorses – like Galileo and Monjeu – were never thought of as “slow” 12f types. It’s those without a turn of foot that can struggle. eg Harzand. Harzand is up against it for another reason too, seen as a soft ground horse, so a 10f Group 1 would’ve come in doubly handy.
Value Is EverythingThink Ginge is right here MV – the problem is the myth, how it connects to the intersection between the sales and the racing programme (where the emphasis is more and more on speed) and thence to what breeders do. For a staying horse who favours slower ground and with no obvious ‘kick’ it’s all too easy to be labelled as ‘slow’ and for the patronage to quickly become NH mares, which then becomes self-perpetuating. Look at the Coolmore stallions and how their predominantly 12-14f performers are mostly on the NH roster. Even Dylan Thomas, who won the Irish Champion, is now partly on the NH roster; all the stayers – sadly – were straight to NH. This is why the 10f win is seen to matter. Personally, I think this is a real retrogressive step. Stayers matter for the good of the TB – & Harzand is a tough, gutsy staying type who grinds it out. I like him for all those reasons. It sounds like he’s recovering fast – which is good news. Unfortunately, though, running him in the Irish Champion will have left an indelible impression of slowness for breeders – which even a win in the Arc couldn’t erase. At least he has an owner who understands the value of a stayer.
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