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Whilst Don Poli is one angle on this race, Valseur Lido is another – and I was very impressed with that run.
As I wrote on the WPM/Giggi thread, last year was disappointing in comparison with his novice season, even though it would all have looked rather different if Ruby hadn’t have fallen off him in the Irish Gold Cup and Vautour hadn’t turned up in the Ryanair… Today’s performance though looked to me to be different gravy. The horse travelled fantastically, didn’t make the semblance of a mistake and cruised away from SC in a hack canter. In short, he looked a proper 3-mile chaser. HdB’s comments suggest the same, and the look on Ruby’s face as he pulled him up spelled ‘the one that got away’ (or substitute … !). An interesting ‘sighter’ ride, as well as a useful spare financially? Not sure that I buy that SC blew up – PN is on record that he had him in much earlier than last year, that he’s had a trouble free run with him, unlike last year, and that the racecourse gallop at Chepstow had him spot on for today. Plus his string have been running out of their skins. Rather, I think VL is finally showing what a class act he is. What with him and Identity Thief, HdB has a couple to ‘go to war’ with for Giggi – and a big consolation for what went on over the summer.
As for DP – my goodness, Barry was hard at work on him from early on. The horse is clearly lazy (very!) but I’m not sure he’s any lazier or worse than he was last year. For me he is what he looks: a staying handicap chaser who just hasn’t got the toe to keep pace with the better 3-milers.
Very taken with that for fto – safe, economical fencing, without a hint of the mistakes that occurred last year, and he really poured it on from the bottom of the hill. I liked what I saw in The Dipper last year as well, which was a top-drawer performance. The RSA though was a disappointing run, so I put him down as a soft/heavy performer. Since then he’s shown he can go on pretty much anything, and is totally versatile in terms of distance. Am remembering that old adage – a very good 2.5 miler can be a good stayer as well (e.g. Gay Trip etc … ). All options open, I think – 2.5– 4.5, and I really don’t think it’ll matter. Although they’re talking about shelving earlier plans, my guess is that they will think about it but that the Hennessy will then come back into play – or, they might take a look at the Bet Victor. After all, the programme book for top-class staying chasers is an obvious one, as is the strength/depth of the likely opposition. Smad and Saphir v Coneygree/Thistlecrack/CC etc?
As for BDM, this performance reminded me a lot of the one at Sandown last December, where he was totally out-gunned by Ar Mad from the off, and also made mistakes. I think he’s best when he’s up with the pace or leading, and that he makes fewer mistakes when he’s ridden that way. Today though I’d say he would have been hard pressed to have taken closer order early on, even if DJ had asked him to. Just met a better horse. Not been a good couple of days for NTD’s stable stars, what with Ballyoptic yesterday as well – hopefully he’s ok today, anyone know?
Having just watched the replay, I agree – a nice schooling round there for Thistlecrack against very inferior opposition. I don’t think we learnt very much there, other than that the horse can jump fences at a relatively modest racing pace and that he is fit and well. Thinking ahead, there were a few clues though: for a big horse he is a very nimble jumper. He can go short and long and can fiddle. Interestingly too, he’s happy leading on either leg and, regardless of which lead he lands on, he gallops away with the same momentum. So RH or LH shouldn’t be a problem. But, currently he does have a tendency to give the fences some air, and he is not that fast over them i.e. he wasn’t taking lengths out of this lot over the fences, even when being extravagant. Rather, it’s his engine that takes him away from them (in the end). So, I think he does need quite a bit more practice and at a faster pace before being plunged in the deep end against top-flight staying chasers– something I always worry about with novice chasers, however talented they are.
The other question marks I have currently are (1) why – if chasing has always been his game and he can jump well – that it took them so long to put him over fences? Anyone know? Yes, he could mop up in the weak stayers’ division and earn a lot in the process, but he could equally well have gone the RSA route last year as a 7/8yo, and that would have been a year later than normal. I’m just wondering if they have underlying concerns re soundness – noting the ‘rain dances’ and desire for good-soft ground. 2) Cheltenham – looking back over his entire form record, there is a not too impressive Neptune performance in there, to add to several others that didn’t mark him out as outstanding early on.
Hopefully, they will go the Coneygree route @ Kempton (the Feltham), and follow Coneygree’s path to Cheltenham rather than being tempted by the bonus.
@ Venusian – unlikely, I know, but the last time I took such an interest in one particular stallion’s first crop was long ago with Mill Reef, and it is those memories that triggered the comment. There was one chestnut colt in that first crop that was group class – Main Reef. Later on, I can only remember one that was group class and chestnut, and that was Milford (ex Highclere) – and he definitely had temperament issues. All Mill Reef’s best sons were bay. I went and looked at Darshaan’s record as well – only 1 x chestnut in the top 150. Then again – Northern Dancer. His best sons were surely the bays: Nijinsky, El Gran Senor, Nureyev and Lyphard v The Minstrel, Be My Guest, Viceregal? Other stallions are clearly different – Galileo being the obvious case, where the top (at least on official ratings) is a mix of bays and chestnuts.
A background thought in all this is – where have all those really top quality chestnut colts gone, and when was the last time that we saw a really stand out grey colt on the flat?
Back to Frankel – the ‘they’re all sorts’ thought (i.e. he’s not stamping them) was the first thing that struck me about his progeny, and colour was in that just as much as size and shape.
As to which do I like best? I find it quite difficult actually to single them out and decide on a pecking order. But this is what it looks like at the moment:
Visually, the best performance looked to be Mi Suerte to me. I was also quite taken with Soul Stirring against the colts – see Joni’s link. Perhaps the best of Frankel’s first crop may be in Japan?
As to the ones who are racing in Britain & Ireland, my votes for the first year ‘Frankelet’s’ would be:
Best colt: Seven Heavens – but oh dear, unless he settles he’ll never realise his potential
Best filly: Queen Kindly (I wouldn’t rule her out as a 1000 filly, and she does not have temperament issues)
Most promising newcomer/s: currently impossible! I liked Cracksman’s attitude, Monarch’s Glen & Atty Persse, plus I was impressed with Aljezeera when I watched the replay. Icespice has ability – but she wears a hood already!
The one that has grown on me is Frankuus – this one has done nothing but knuckle down and improve. A typical Kingsley House inhabitant, I can see him turning in good performances next year.
I also like the beast that is with Elsey! But then, I’m increasingly of the view that Frankel needs to be sent faster mares. This is one that is an example of that.
With nothing now running in the Racing Post and with no G1 winner in England to change the picture, I thought I’d post my end of season thoughts, after all the jumpers are calling!
Yes it’s early days, and far too early to judge, but looking at Crop 1 I think we’ve already learned a fair bit about Frankel as a stallion.
1: I make it 35 to have seen a racecourse somewhere in the world so far, although I may have missed a few. Of these, 24 are colts and 11 fillies, which is a big difference. Numerically that’s roughly 30%, give or take, of the first crop, which I would say is slightly on the low side. So, ‘Where are they all?’ is still a valid point – although we know one answer to that, which is that no (English-based) trainer wanted to be the one to really burst the bubble of hype/expectation.
2: In terms of ORs (where we have them):
5 are rated > 100, and of those 3 are fillies (Queen Kindly, 113; Fair Eva, 110; Frankuus & Seven Heavens, 106 and Toulifaut, 104). Then there’s a bunch that are in the 80-high 90s range, most of whom are the promising maiden winners and/or more exposed early colts (Cunco, 97; Majoris, 95; Last Kingdom, Senator & Cracksman, 91; Swiss Storm & Atty Persse, 86; Monarch’s Glen & Zefferino, 85; Eminent, 84; Lightening Fast, 83; Aljezeera & Icespire, 83). Below that there is a group of lower rated colts in the 60-70 bracket (Franked, Weekender, Count Octave, San Remo, Alfawaaris), and below that again a group of colts and fillies in the < 60 bracket (Khattar, Rainbow Legacy, Top Deck, Moon Mountain, Overview, Aspira, Ambrosia, Harba).So, there’s the usual level of mediocrity, a reasonably strong middle numerically and a top that doesn’t seem very stretched, at least at the moment. That could easily change if some of the more unexposed middle start to improve.
3: Progression seems to be an issue for several. At the top level, Queen Kindly and Fair Eva disappointed in the Cheveley Park; Toulifaut did the same in the Boussac, as did Seven Heavens in the Dewhurst. Then there are those who looked promising in their initial (couple of) run/s, but then haven’t progressed e.g. Senator, Zefferino. And then there is quite a big group who, after one reasonably early run, have been put away – could be growing, could be sore shins, could be the virus, or could be something else altogether.
4: Temperament is a big issue, especially with the more forward and more speedily bred ones, and it’s more of an issue with the colts – or at least those that have seen the racecourse. It may also be an issue with the fillies, given the contrast in the numbers of fillies and colts appearing. That said, if the yard can ‘channel it’ – as with Frankel – some calm down a bit over time. The best examples of this so far are Cunco and Frankuus, who both displayed a lot of ‘boyo’ tendencies initially but who now, after several races, are knuckling down to it on the racecourse, and improving steadily.
5: They come in all shapes and sizes, and colours – and (unlike several sires) there is no correspondence so far between colour and ability. The top performers in Crop 1 are: chestnut x 2, grey, brown and bay.
6: Those we have seen are all ‘gallopers’ rather than horses with a devastating kick/ change of pace. This is like dad in some ways, in that it was his immense engine, stride length and ground coverage, and capacity to sustain that for longer than others, rather than change of gear, that made him so exceptional as a racehorse. But, the sons and daughters are also not quite the same, in that the engine isn’t his. Instead, many of them – particularly those that have appeared recently – remind me much more of Frankel’s full brother, Noble Mission.
So far, I’d give him a B+. He’s done really well, much better than I expected, on numbers of winners but low numbers, the disappointments at G1, and the anticipated temperament issues are definite negatives for me.
A superb two-mile chaser – number 2 on my all-time list, after you know who. Looking back at the old footage shows just how good he was. That Tingle Creek was an absolute epic, and the second QM is not so far off the scenes from last year. Plus, lest we forget, this was a chaser who could serve it up to Istabraq over hurdles – even if one of them usually turned an absolute purler in the process.
Watching this, there is a curious symmetry between then and now: the old returning 11yo former champion and the young pretender that was the fabulous Well Chief has me thinking of what may lie ahead. But for now, it’s time to say ‘thanks’ to Moscow – for being everything that we all love about great 2-mile champion chasers in their pomp.
& for those who haven’t seen this, this is worth a look:Agreed – she is no Bosra Sham, Miesque or Indian Skimmer, let alone Zarkava (who is the best European-based filly I’ve seen in many a year). But, to be as successful as she has been this season over 8 – 12f marks her out as durable and versatile. Even more impressive is that she can come back from 10f to 8f at G1 level. Very, very few middle distance horses are even asked to compete again against specialist milers, let alone are able to do it. Most increase distance with age, from 8 to 10f (12f), and then stay at that distance, or mix 10/12f. I am trying to think of the last horse who was asked to do this kind of range at G1 level – the only one I can think of off the top of my head is The Brigadier, who left off at 3 with the Champion, and then returned at 4 with the Lockinge before going back up to 10 and then 12f and back to 10 again.
Perhaps this tells us something about the quality/depth of the QE2 field (although I think Ribchester is a good colt) and yes, I agree she was well placed. But she is some race mare, and I for one hope she stays in training next year. It is so refreshing to see Coolmore/Ballydoyle campaign their fillies/mares as racehorses!
Lots of interesting views here, though the key issue going forwards here for me is less Galileo v Frankel and more whether (or not) Frankel becomes the heir apparent in this male line (which is the ‘long view’ to Joni’s thread title). Galileo is 18 now – and he has yet to produce an obvious successor, at least from those who have a fair few crops of racing age. There again, looking at their dates, SW was around the same age when he sired Galileo so there is a little time left yet.
The crux for Frankel as a sire though is that the pressure is really on him to succeed early – more so, I think, than is normal for a classic horse. Much of this is about the weight of expectation that came as a result of his performances on the racecourse and a collective wish for a superstar racehorse to be as successful at stud. Some is about the Coolmore Galileo pipeline that is Australia, Gleneagles and then The Gurkha and Churchill. But it is also about how all this dovetails with Galileo’s age. For this line to continue to dominate, it’s very important to establish the Galileo X Danehill cross as a strong branch of this male line, to set alongside Galileo X Storm Cat (Gleneagles, Churchill), and also Galileo X Cape Cross (Australia). So far, aside from Frankel himself, Noble Mission and Intello, there is just Teofilo as an established example of what the Galileo X Danehill cross produces as sires – & I’m not that convinced by him. This is why Frankel’s first two crops matter (and why Juddmonte were so keen to push the quality in his first books).
Incidentally, one of the main reasons why Galileo was slow to get going was mentioned in the GG and the speed gene thread – they sent him ‘classic-type’ staying mares, and the result was staying types (‘2 milers’ as I think Jim Bolger described them!). It is only once he was put to speedier mares that things looked up. This is also why there is this pinch point in terms of the successor sons at the end of his career.
I’ll wait till the end of the year to summarise my thoughts on Crop 1 of Frankel’s.
Interesting to compare the three Frankel colts today.
Frankuus and Cunco are two of a kind who both have had plenty of racing, and who have improved temperamentally for that racing. They are both solid, tough, gutsy gallopers who are best when up with the pace. There’s nothing flash about them; they just knuckle down to it and try their best. Both now race as seasoned racehorses, and they look to be Listed/Group 3 level at present. If they remind me of anything to do with their dad, it’s more like watching Noble Mission and Bullet Train than Frankel himself.
Seven Heavens is cut from a different cloth. He looks like Frankel and he races like him but I’m far from convinced that he will ever fulfil his potential, at least over classic distances. Temperamentally, he is just far too energetic and anxious to get on with it – and, tellingly, it is not getting any better with trips to the racecourse. If anything, his behaviour pattern is cementing. Once this happens, it’s very difficult to reverse it. I was surprised they ran him in this, tbh. Yes, he has ability and they clearly think a lot of him but his relative physical immaturity (May 21 foal) was really obvious today compared particularly to Churchill (Jan 31) but also the others. I also wonder what the experience of not being able to go with these other, bigger horses when the chips were down will have done to him mentally.
It will be interesting to see where they go from here with SH. For me, whilst he looks like Frankel, it is worth remembering how Sir Henry kept on saying how much of Kind was in Frankel. Kind was bred to be a middle distance horse but she refused to settle and became a sprinter instead. I sense the only option for SH at the top level will be to let him run and allow him to use his engine.
For those who are interested in the visual comparisons, it’s instructive to look at the photos of Kind, which are also worth comparing with Jac’s pictures of Frankel.
Whilst catching up on the snippet from the ML on C4’s Twitter feed re WPM/Giggi, some interesting stats came across the screen:
WPM Giggi winners – 158; strike rate – 33%. So, the numbers per se are good. But then, a few seconds later (as GC was talking about Grade 1’s as being ‘the currency that these players deal in’), this came across the screen: WPM Grade 1 Giggi winners – 16 (so, roughly 10% of his Giggi winners), of which 11 were @ Punchestown and 4 @ Cheltenham.
Thinking ‘results’ & their importance to Giggi, I then went to WPM’s website and his Cheltenham winners:
48 in total so far, but 12 of those (25%) are for RR, with all bar one of those (Limini) being in the championship races. Compare that to the WPM Giggi Cheltenham record, remembering that this is a fair comparison since they & RR started in the yard at around about the same time. Giggi’s 4 WPM Cheltenham winners (< 5% of the WPM total) are the 2 double winners, Sir Des Champs & Don Poli, both of whom won the Martin Pipe, and who then won the Jewson (now the JLT) and the RSA respectively. I think that comparison between RR & Giggi is quite telling, especially when combined with the uplift in fees. Given WPM’s recent Cheltenham record, I can see MO’L thinking he’d have seen rather more visits to the hallowed circle at Prestbury Park with WPM than he’s actually had (and in more of the championship races), and so baulking at the uplift in fees (which, after all, is small change to him).Then, add in the details of particular, already established, horses – specifically Valseur Lido in the Ryanair (I still think he’s important in this) & Apple’s Jade’s future – and I think it is possible to surmise why these horses were moved. Ginge is right: from what WPM said, AJ looks to have been ear-marked for the ‘Annie path’ when Quevega was on the scene (remember, she too went to the World Hurdle, because WPM didn’t want her beating Quevega & messing up the perfect 6 …). WPM doesn’t usually have an obvious WH horse; it’s the slot he fills, if he fills it, with those he doesn’t want running elsewhere – but that doesn’t mean the race is right for that horse, and the plan can backfire. IMO Annie didn’t really stay that distance, and she ran into a very good horse on the day in More Of That. The risk for AJ in going the WH route is that Thistlecrack doesn’t take to fences and reverts back to hurdles.
Don’t get me wrong: I love the games and second guessing with WPM, & I am no fan of the Ryanair way of doing business, but if I owned these horses I’m not so sure I’d put up with this kind of shenanigans either, and I think I would want a better Cheltenham return too.
Replay of the Boussac here:
Toulifaut may have met trouble in running but there is no way that she is in the league of the first two fillies. As I suspected, the eve of Arc sale looks to have been timed to maximise her value.
1-2-3 in the Arc to add to 1-2-3 in the 1000 Guineas, and in the same season. That is some record.
As is that all SIX of these are daughters/sons of Galileo. I am wracking the memory banks but I cannot remember anything like this.
@ Joni – I think we would’ve struggled to ‘raise the readies’! …
http://bloodstock.racingpost.com/news/bloodstock/classy-frankel-filly-toulifaut-sells-for-1-9m/2166533/Interesting to see where she is heading (along with a fair few of these Frankel’s)
http://bloodstock.racingpost.com/news/bloodstock/yoshidas-the-new-superpower-of-breeding/1931155/Such is Frankel’s global appeal, this is inevitable – but it does mean that we might not necessarily see the best of his stock racing in the UK, or even in Europe.
More details today in the Irish Independent as to who has gone where:
GE gets: Apple’s Jade, Don Poli, Outlander, Blow by Blow, Lucky Pass, A Toi Phil, Roi des Francs, Potters Point, Stone Hard, Monbeg Rose, Sutton Manor, Berry des Aulmes, Barra, Three Swallowsnick, Dinaria des Obeaux, Icario & Empire of Dirt.
HdB gets: Valseur Lido, Devil’s Bride and Petit Mouchoir, plus ‘others’.
MM gets: Master of Verse, Nampour, Admiral Chief, Mozoltov, Milsean, Bello Conti, Wishmoor, plus ‘others’
JO’B has: Bel Sas, Arkwist plus ‘others’
NM has: Measureofmydreams.Looking at this, I would say a) there is a clear pecking order; b) GE has been given the ammunition to be competitive in the Irish trainer’s championship but also most of the obvious and potential Cheltenham championship contenders; and c) that MM has an interesting mix of older horses (to plot with and try to rekindle?) and young promising ones.
I’m also going to watch with interest how HdB gets on with Valseur Lido and how he/ Giggi campaign him – 2.5m or 3? Continue banging his head against the Ricci star chasers or chart a Sizing Europe type path by taking in the Irish G2s? Last season, by his previous high standards, was a disaster but his season could have been oh so different if Vautour hadn’t turned up in the Ryanair and Ruby hadn’t fallen off him in the Irish Gold Cup.
Meanwhile, back in the speculation zone: RR added his two-pennyworth, reported via the RP, whilst Kim Bailey had this to say on his blog:
Was it really all about Willie Mullins raising his training fees? I wonder.. Whatever, fees do have to go up and apparently Willie has not raised his for 10 years.. Cost have esculated since then.. My costs alone have risen by 12% from this time last year, so what it would be would it be over the last 10 years? Frightening thought.Rich going on about his ‘newbies’ got me thinking that Giggi might not only have been thinking about results and the obvious future collisions but also about how horses like Blow by Blow, Lucky Pass & Wishmoor might fare @ Closutton against the next round of Ricci recruits.
More to this than meets the eye, I think. Giggi is on record as a ‘results-based business’ and, like it or not, they move horses when the results aren’t as expected (just as they sack jockeys). So I started thinking about this in terms of ‘results’, but through a Giggi lens.
Look at who delivered Giggi their owner’s title – Elliott and Morris (GC and GN), and then at how they might regard their own (significant) contribution to WPM’s Irish trainer’s title. Then I keep casting my mind back to Cheltenham 2016 and Giggi’s presence (or lack of it) in the Mullins’/Walsh benefit fest – and contrast that with the Ricci/Wylie Show. Part of the problem for WPM in managing the egos is that all 3 ‘big’ owners needed their place in the limelight @ Prestbury Park. For Giggi, The Don in the GC was redemption, but they lost NMH and many of their other runners (many of them Mullins-trained) either fell, or were down the field. Then, in their ‘own’ race, Valseur Lido (trained by Mullins – whom Ruby fell off of in the Lexus, remember!) was the runner up to Vautour – who even Rich Ricci thought was running in the GC! Road to Riches was in 3rd that day, targeted at the Ryanair because he didn’t really stay the GC distance. That must have really rubbed it in, especially for an outfit that calls the shots.
Then factor in the future, particularly how Apple Jade might fare in a stable where Annie & Vroum Vroum are the star mare and super-sub etc. etc. & I think GE and MM have their rewards for last season’s results (and quality replacements for losses), whilst HdB gets to try with Valseur Lido.
The fee issue, I sense, is a mask for this. Whilst I think WPM is right to insist on parity between his owners, I can also see why MO’L might not see it in quite the same terms. I also found it a little hard to believe that this is the first time in ten years that WPM has raised his training fees … like costs have not gone up in ten years?
Whatever, like everyone else, I think this can only be good for Irish NH racing.
@ Joni – yes, I agree: I don’t think FE is a miler either. I think she’s a 6f filly, just like her mum – whom she looks like.
Going back over African Rose’s form, she started off over 5, then they upped her to 7 as a 2yo (all on soft). Then they kept her at 7f to start with at 3, but then brought her back to 6, and then kept her mostly at that (with one foray at < 5f). Looks like they weren’t sure either as to optimum trip, at least to begin with! Sure, she stayed 7f well enough to win on soft in lesser company at 2, but at group level she was a 6f filly. My hunch is that FE will turn out to be the same.
Toulifaut – I wish, but I fear we won’t have sufficient funds, especially for something that is a v attractive brood mare prospect. Beyond the realm of dreams, I was surprised over this. To me it suggests ‘cashing in’ whilst ahead, for – if she won the Boussac – she’d be even more valuable, so why sell now, unless they think she has maxed out on what she can achieve on the track already? I thought the same over Atty Persse tbh. If he’s really good, surely it would be a case of hang on now and sell later?
Jac: QK was disappointing today. Not sure whether that was the result of being rowed along (along with everything else) for some way to try to keep tabs on Lady A (and consequently not really seeing the trip out), or of being OTT. Whatever, she had nothing left at the real business end, albeit the distances are probably an iffy indication of relative abilities as she was ‘looked after’ by Spencer.
Back on the horses …
If there was a Guineas filly on display today @ Newmarket it was surely Talaayeb – very impressive. Second dam (Sayadir) is the dam of Ghanaati (by Giant’s Causeway), and this performance reminded me of her a little. I also liked the look of the second. The dam Rumoush may have run in the Park Hill and won the Feilden but Talaayeb looks a likely Guineas/Oaks filly to me.
By contrast, the Cheveley Park was a muddle –the fractions posted on C4’s Twitter feed (and the visuals) suggest that Lady A went too fast in furlongs 2 & 3, especially given the wind. She ran out of petrol, leaving the two War Front fillies to stay on for a head-bobbing finish. Not sure that I can see War Front’s winning the 1000 … Lady A though surely needs to stick to 5f, rather than the 6 of the Commonwealth Cup, in which she’d be vulnerable to a strongly finishing colt.
As for the Middle Park – I’m struggling to see how this race is still worthy of Group I status. Leaving aside last year’s winner, Shalaa (who hasn’t run since but who I did think was a proper Group 1 horse) it’s back to Oasis Dream (in 2002) to find a real Group 1 horse as the winner, and from there it’s back to Rodrigo (1991) to a Guineas horse. I know they are trying to rebadge it as the Autumn Group 1 for 2yo colts who are going on to be 3yo sprinters, but this year’s renewal looked like a Group 2 at best to me.
