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On form, Rip wins. He beat a King George winner by 5 lengths, with a solid yardstick in Cima De Triomphe a further 5 lengths back. He has the form in the book. Ghanaati has been beating a decent but not great bunch of fillies easily, so it is harder to get a handle on what she has achieved. She could still be improving rapidly, so it’s a tough race to call. Paco Boy can’t be ruled out either.
Rip for me.
"reet hard" wrote:
I don’t know why people are are rating Rip’s ability at a maile on his guineas run. He had a setback beforehand, and was quite obviously rusty that day, he ran a very similar race to Mastercraftsman. And look what MC has done since at a mile, and he had no stone bruise.
Yep, just look what MC has done since; won on bottomless ground at the Curragh, and a hard-fought last-gasp win around Ascot’s stiff Old MIle, mainly courtesy of his 2 pacemakers setting such a searing test.
You’d really have to wonder why MC’s next engagement is in the 10.5f International, and not in tomorrow’s race, wouldn’t you?
Aidan has said it all: Mastercraftsman turned around the 2000 form significantly, so more can be expected to come from Rip Van Winkle at a mile. And I’m not one of the people who has backed him in every race at every track as somebody put it, I’ve never backed the horse before in my life. But I think tomorrow (if he takes his chance) will be Rip’s time to shine.
I don’t know much about this Mountail lady, but is she useless or something?
5/1 about Masterofthehorse is an insult to the woman!
I don’t know why people are are rating Rip’s ability at a maile on his guineas run. He had a setback beforehand, and was quite obviously rusty that day, he ran a very similar race to Mastercraftsman. And look what MC has done since at a mile, and he had no stone bruise.
Conduit proves why this has imo been the strongest Group 1 run this year. Rip should win the Sussex.
Fist,
I agree with everything you just said. I’d forgive him hitting a flat spot in the guineas. He ran a very similar race to Mastercraftsman and he cam on a lot for that run. I think Rip was rusty that day, and as you say, things just happened too fast for him over the mile.
I think he is alot sharper now, as his Eclipse run proves, and there will be no Sea The Stars to repel his charge in the Sussex.
It’s difficult to gauge how good Ghanaati is. She has beaten a moderate bunch of fillies, but she has beaten them easily it has to be said. She is by far the best 3yo filly over a mile in Europe, but the colts look very strong this year.
Paco Boy and Lord Shanakill will be the ones following them home. Set Sail will lock up after Rip collects the pot.
Well done Michael Stoute, great training performance. I have to say I never really rated Ask before today, but he ran a cracker on ground that might have been a bit too fast for him.
The run of Tartan Bearer gives Vision D’Etat’s form a boost. I would fancy him against Conduit. Great run by Conduit though, I would have been surprised if he had got beaten.
Posted: Sat Jul 25, 2009 10:17 am Post subject:
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Thanks for the link that story is quite lovely and the sort of thing that racing needs to gain more outside interest [my ‘not nterestedinracingatall ‘daughter was quite fascinated by New Approach’s antics of last season, she’d love this one]. Has put me in a dilemma, however with Tartan Bearer being my favourite horse of last season. From now on it’ll be a case of c’mon Conduit! Sorry to see in the same article, however that Commanche Court has died from colic [the worst thing that can happen to horse imo].
We have a horse that had colic, almost died. We had to nurse him back to full health bit by bit. Aiming him at the Galway Hurdle next year, he’s not a bad horse either. Fell at the last when winning his point to point before coming second next time out. Afterwards we discovered he had severe bruising on his hip from the fall, so it was a cracking run to come second.
Anyway, hope Conduit wins!
Casual Conquest was a bit dissapointing yesterday. What’s more dissapointing though is that he didn’t drift at all. I was hoping for 33s after the race.
Rip Van Winkle should win easily in my opinion. Paco Boy won’t be good enough even if he does stay. Ghanaati is a class filly but Rip is improving rapidly and the Eclipse form is the strongest piece of form in the race by miles.
I think Mastercraftsman will only improve for the step up to 10 furlongs. He will never give in in a fight. Rip Van Winkle has improved on each start all year. It’s hard to know what else has this race as their target but they will all need to improve to beat Sea The Stars. I think its possible, but unlikely.
Casual Conquest, Vision D’Etat and Fame And Glory are the 3 on my shortlist. I’ve already backed Fame And Glory @ 12/1, but will leave the other two til later. I’ll never forget the way Casual Conquest bolted up in the Derrinstown last year, and I think everything about the Arc will suit him perfectly. He is overpriced @ 20/1. Vision D’Etat is a horse I love. I’ve backed him on his previous 2 starts this year, and he only ever does just enough. It wouldn’t take much improvement to better last year’s fifth, and I believe he has improved. I think Casual Conquest will be hard to beat, Fame & Glory 2nd, Vision 3rd. Stacelita is very over-rated in my opinion, and I would be surprised if she makes the places. She does not yet deserve to be mentioned in the same sentence as Zarkava.
"Fist" wrote: The reason people start making comparison is to try and get to the borrow of how good another horse actaually is.
That aside you hit the nail right on the head with a point I made some time ago. You simply can’t judge how good Sea the Stars is until the end of the season.
Horses are judged by what the horses that finished diectly behind them achieve. In his case Delegator and Fame and Glory and Rip Van Winkle.
There’s a big selling job going on throughout racing at the moment. There always have been but I think it’s worse than ever. Every horse that wins a race gets hailed a superstar which keeps the punters interest up.
Again I am not knocking Sea The Stars but I was reading he got a rating on a par with Nashwan which right away made me ask myself "Surely Nashwan never got his rating until after he won the King George?"
To be honest I really don’t know but it had me running of to find some vidoes of Nashwan to remind me how he went about winning the four timer.
He looked more imressive to me than Sea the Stars did but the point was made "what did Nashwan actually beat?"
Ok some horse were just so visually superior like say Mill Reef was was never an issue but Sea the Stars isn’t leaving good horses 15 lengths in his wake. So really there has to be a bit of doubt and I’m told Timeforms rating for the horse is or was provisional (not that I would have a clue if that is significant)
I think John Oxx is a little bit concerned that he doesn’t win his races more impressively as he told Mick Kinane to win the Eclispe as far as he possibly could. Mick Kinane responded by asking him if he was joking saying Sea the Stars would never beat any horse more than a length and a half.
He’s just not a Zarkava-Dancing Brave type of animal who is going to come swooping through and put 3 or 4 lengths between him and good horses and that is what makes me think he would have been beaten very easily by some of the greats of the past. Mick Kinane seems to know the horse has limitations but some judges on here can’t see that.
Anyway time will tell and if he remains unbeaten, Fame and Glory were to win the Arc and Rip Van Winkle goes on to win a couple of Group1 and ends up triumphant in the USA eg no one could argue ea te Stars was a bit special if not the greatest we have seen.
I’m not ata ll trying to say Sea The Stars is better than Dancing Brave here but you have to give Sea The Stars more credit. In the 2000 he travelled into the race with considerable ease over a trip which was arguably inadequate. In the Derby he quickly put 3 or 4 lengths between him and the field before idling slightly infront. For this reason, we will never know how good he is. You are spot on in saying that we can only judge him on what he has beaten. Delegator seems to get found out in the last half furlong over a mile, but is a high class colt. Fame And Glory, similarly to Sea The Stars nobody really knows how good he is. Rip Van Winkle is a horse who I think will be very hard to beat on his next start. He is still improving and I’m certain there’s more to come from him. I agree with you that we will have a much clearer picture at the end of the season.
Age Of Aquarius looks like a good bet to me. He never stopped galloping in that french race.
Without doubt in my opinion if you want to make money in the long run the patient approach is best. I struggle to stick with it though!
I’m trying a different approach now where if I don’t fancy a horse strongly enough to put atleast £20 on it, I don’t back it. I’ve only been doing it for the past month but so far I’m doing well.
I don’t think there are any superstars in this race, seen as Sea The Stars is declared as a non-runner. Conduit deserves to be favourite, but I just never liked the horse. I think he is over hyped and would rather back his stablemate at the prices. Conduit can’t be out of the 1st 3 though, can he?
Of the rest, Look Here and Youmzain are both interesting @ 8/1, yet Conduit put Look Here in her place last year and Youmzain needs to return to form. Maybe blinkers will do the trick for him.
Golden Sword is a horse I love. I love the way he just bowls along and never stops galloping. If Aidan O’Brien runs a pacemaker (nice to see Rockhampton entered
) for Golden Sword, which sets a blistering pace, and GS sits maybe 4 lengths away, with a gap of a further 4 lengths to the rest, he just might take pegging back.GS will be a bit of a sitting duck out in front though, and stablemate Frozen Fire could well be one of those flying home. It’s a very hot race, and I can see any one of six horses winning, but if I was having a bet now I would probably back Golden Sword e/w.
