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Yes but tomorrows race is over a mile and given that he took a while to get into top gear at Epsom and never got going in the Guinneas I don’t think he is worthy of favouritism. Who knows if Rip’s going to handle the ground anyway?
Lahaleeb and Beacon Lodge show good form on easier ground and offer much better value IMO. Why is Virtual not running in this race?There is nothing else to add apart to say,in my mind,this race is tailored made for Paco Boy re track, distance and going.IMO,Ghanaati’s Coronation Stakes run was over-hyped and I was almost convinced by the press that she was invincible.She has speed and is of the best of her generation butshe still has to prove she is capable of beating colts and older horses.
With Paco’s ability to see out the softer stiffer trip in the Lockinge not long back puts me off, and added to the 11 lbs he must give to Ghanaati and even 8 to Rip Van Winkle he is most definately too short. He ran a good race at Ascot but the form looks pretty poor; Cesare flopping next time out with no excuses and Main Aim getting a place over an unsuited distance.
PB has everything to overcome IMO but if Ghanaati doesn’t win he’d be the one I’d like to see beat her.It [expletive] up the whole thing. Bookies will still hit people with rule 4, even if you took a price a couple of days before the bet. So if you took ghanaati at a good price it’s hammered down, and if you went for an e/w price it will be only 2 places if RVW and the pace setter don’t run.
Anyone who had a bet before 48hr decs won’t have a rule 4 or altered each-way terms as ante-post rules apply.
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It took a top class Derby winner to beat him last time out. He destroyed a King George winner. This is like Dylan Thomas after the POW all over again. Look at the actual form and not the form figures.
With the subtle difference that Dylan Thomas wasn’t dropped back to a sharp 1m for his next race?
The distance thing about Paco Boy has become boring:he’s won a Group 2 over a mile at Sandown,one of the stiffest tracks in the country,and he is versatile regards trip ,tbh,if you look at his tun in the July Cup.He is very consistent and has beaten some of the best around such as Gladiatorus and had some very fast sprinters behind him like Scenic Blast when fourth in the July Cup.So he has stamina,always travels well in his races and has a telling turn of foot.Not to mention that he always runs his race,I can’t see a better option in the race.The others have question marks surrounding them regarding distance or whether they are really as good as the hype:Ghanaati is a speedy filly but she has to step up again to out perform the likes of Paco Boy or even the O’Brien horse.
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I couldn’t put my mind to rest wondering why AOB runs Rip Van Winkle here and not Mastercraftsman. Reading your posts I noticed a few of you were saying Rip would be suited better by 10f which was my way of thinking too.
But who are we that we think we know better than the master of Ballydoyle or Johhny Murtagh?
In the Eclipse I was so busy watching Conduit I only knew that he came out of the pack and was done for speed and never really studied the race until now.
I had to watch the race about 6 times because I couldn’t believe how well Rip Van Winkle was going between 2 and 3 furlongs from home.
He looks to be going even better than Sea the Stars and it’s Mick Kinane who is stoking up his mount while Murtagh still doesn’t move. I swear if that had been a mile race Sea the Stars would have been in a lot of more trouble than he was at te end of the 1m2f’s IMO.
Of course Sea the Stars picked up well but when Murtagh asks Rip Van Winkle to go he comes there looking a huge threat but dies/hangs in the closing stages. It’s almost like he never quite got the trip.
I know Rip Van Winkle ran well in the Derby but that was run so slow Overdose woud have got the trip.
Obviously Murtagh will have relayed how well the horse was going 2 out and I would imagine they are going to Goodwood full of confidence the trip will suit him better than the 10f of the Eclipse or the Juddmonte,
I also had alook at Ghanaati’s race at Ascot to see if I could knock any holes in it. She definitely has a lot of ability or she wouldn’t have stole a march on them the way she did. On the down side there was all sorts of bumbing and barging going on behind her which only heloed her cause. The second is almost stopped in her tracks Rainbow View gets going al too late and in the end although they are catching her she wins quite easily. The thing is the second and third are as ordinary as you could hope to find. Rainbow View who I have a love hate relationship got beat again the other day.
One things for sure unless Sea the Stars is the most overrated horse in history Rip Van Winkle is from a totally different planet to anything Ghanaati has ever taken on.
If he arrives at Goodwood in the same nick and frame of mind he was in at Ascot he’ll absolutely murder this filly.
Rip Van Winkle in a shoe as the saying goes.
After what I wrote above I was pleased to read this:-
"I’m really looking forward to riding the horse again. I think everyone knows the high regard I hold him – hopefully this will be the day he shows everybody," said the jockey.
"He’s a horse with a lot of speed, so the drop to a mile won’t be a problem.
Maybe we’ve been running him over the wrong trip.
"My horse is in great form at home and he’s a horse who is very solid and consistent in his work. I just can’t wait – I wouldn’t swap him."
If Murtagh is correct he must be some horse this Rip Van Winkle. Those of you who have backed Ghanaati or Paco Boy better hope he doesn’t run
Well, I
have
backed Ghanaati and I very much hope that Rip Van Winkle does run, which now looks more probable than possible.
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
On form, Rip wins. He beat a King George winner by 5 lengths, with a solid yardstick in Cima De Triomphe a further 5 lengths back. He has the form in the book. Ghanaati has been beating a decent but not great bunch of fillies easily, so it is harder to get a handle on what she has achieved. She could still be improving rapidly, so it’s a tough race to call. Paco Boy can’t be ruled out either.
Rip for me.
Is it just my imagination or is there seemingly an ‘excuse’ before every race that Rip Van Winkle runs in. It was something to do with the horse stepping on a stone in the past, now before the horse runs in the Sussex Stakes, he has a problem with a hind foot.
I’m far from a Ballydoyle apologist, but there is nothing to suggest these incidents should be suspected as being excuses; on the contrary, O’Brien should be applauded for being open about the condition of his horses.
I have taken the 5/2 Ghanaati. To be honest I never seriously thought Rip Van Winkle wouldn’t run. Game on let the best horse win.
I hate it when i’m so focused on a couple of horses in the race, then some git throws a spanner into the works. Hannon seems real confident on Paco Boy, and think it’s between him and Ghanaati. I’m not gonnae change things now, my main bet is still RVW, and Ghanaati would also be alright. Let’s hope for the best.
see you HannonGhanaati may not have beaten a great deal and certainly has a bit to find with Rip Van Winkle, but it’s the manner of her victories that has impressed me.
The Rip has been unlucky to come across such a talented colt in Sea The Stars, but his win-run ratio is far from impressive considering his lofty reputation and I wasn’t impressed with his antics when challenging the dual classic winner in The Eclipse last time.
This eleventh hour scare doesn’t exactly help with the reservations I have about him.
Ghanaati, on the other hand, appears to be improving and Richard Hills considers her to be ‘The greatest filly I’ve ever ridden’.
Bred to appreciate a step up to ten furlongs at some stage, this Giants Causeway filly will appreciate the expected fast pace, sure to be set by Malibu Bay to aid his stable companion, who has solid form to his name over further.
I don’t think Rip Van Winkle has the burst of acceleration that Ghannati demonstrated when winning the Guineas and Coronation Stakes in a matter of strides and it will be interesting to see how he is ridden.
Paco Boy is an admirable little horse, but his form over a mile leaves him with a bit to find and I don’t think he stays the distance well enough to defeat the afforementioned 3YOs, who stay further and have top class form over todays distance.
He’ll be giving 11lbs to the filly and, whilst Richard Hannon is confident of beating RVW, the same can not be said about Ghanaati, who he considers the main danger.
Lord Shanakill won a fairly average renewal of the Prix Jean Prat, but is a tough, consistent horse who represents good ew value. His poor Guineas showing can be forgiven and he did finish ahead of RVW when narrowly beaten in last years Dewhurst.
I think Ghanaati will be very hard to beat and take her to defeat Lord Shanakill and Rip Van Winkle.
I’m going with Lord Shanakill each-way here. Tough performer and his 2nd in the Veuve Clicquot Vintage Stakes at this meeting last year shows that he will handle the track anyway.
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The rain hasn’t materialised, and the going looks like being appreciably faster than yesterday’s, which effectively rules Lahaleeb out of contention.
Can’t really see it being a speed test, AoB knows exactly what he’s got, and the pace is likely to be suitably attritional, which counts against Paco Boy and leaves just Ghanaati for RVW to contend with.
Good as she is, I doubt she’s special enough for this, and the 6/4 RVW might look pretty generous come 3.30.
see you Hannon
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